Kaman Makes Two, D-Wade, How 'Bout Three?

* Dwyane Wade OVER 9.5 rebounds + assists (-115) v. Cavaliers-


* LeBron James OVER 14.5 rebounds + assists (+105) @ Heat

* Mo Williams UNDER 2.5 made 3-pointers (-130) @ Heat

* Dwyane Wade OVER 9.5 made free throws (+100) v. Cavaliers-

* Jermaine O'Neal OVER 17.5 points + rebounds (-115) v. Cavaliers-

* Steve Nash UNDER 12 assists (-115) @ Lakers-

* Amare Stoudemire UNDER 29.5 points + rebounds @ Lakers

* Kobe Bryant UNDER 8.5 made free throws (-115) v. Suns-

* Ron Artest OVER 10.5 rebounds + assists (-115) v. Suns-

Cowboys-Eagles Counterprogramming Anyone?

* Kobe Bryant OVER 45.5 points + rebounds + assists (-150) v. Hornets- No Pau, no Bynum and matchup against Devin Brown? Can you think of a single reason why he won't drop 40 again? Me either. 50 is in play tonight.

* Dwight Howard UNDER 24.5 points (-115) @ Thunder- Whether or not he hits 25 points, this number is simply too high given Howard's lack of consistency and still-raw offensive game. He's just not a legit 25-a-night guy, and while OKC doesn't have anyone to battle Dwight 1-on-1, but they're long and athletic and can disrupt him inside.

* Stephen Curry UNDER 20.5 points + rebounds + assists (-130) @ Kings- Haven't addressed Curry yet this season. Great college stats and an NBA pedigree (in case you didn't know, his dad is long-time SG Dell Curry), and the fact that, by all accounts, he's fantastic human being have combined to generate a fair amount of hype around Stephen, and the consensus that he's destined for NBA stardom. There is no way! I don't care how "great a young man" he is, an undersized, not-particularly-athletic 2-guard whose reputation was built against inferior college competition? No thanks! Maybe a great guy, but he's going to be an NBA bust.

* Jason Thompson OVER 9.5 rebounds (-125) v. Warriors- Still lacks a refined offensive game, but any time he can stay out of foul trouble, Thompson is a good bet to grab double-digit rebounds. Put up 12-11 in Saturday's upset at Utah, and should be able to put up some nice rebounding numbers at home against Golden State. Unlike most big guys, he's athletic and well-conditioned enough to not be liability against the Warriors, whose style of play creates tons of rebounding chances.

* Jonny Flynn OVER .5 3-pointers made (-185) @ Trailblazers- This line is a bit pricey at -185, but he's connected from long range in four of six games (he had zero attempts in one of the other two), and is shooting 43% from 3-point range and is quickly developing into Minny's first option on the perimeter. In Portland, neither Blake nor Andre Miller will keep him from getting at least two or three clean looks from distance.

* David West OVER 18.5 points (-115) @ Lakers- Other than Chris Paul, the play of the rest of Hornets has been a depressing combination of unimpressive and uninspiring, but someone else has to occasionally score for them, right? Plus, Paul and West are extremely familiar with one another, West has scored 20+ in two of his last three games, and the Lakers are shorthanded in the frontcourt. Plus, assuming he plays at least 32 minutes, a line of 18.5 for David West is more than reasonable.

Looking to KD, Lou and TP on a Jam-Packed Night

* Kevin Durant OVER 31.5 points + rebounds @ Rockets-

* Lou Williams OVER 25.5 points + rebounds + assists v. Nets-

* Tony Parker OVER 22.5 points + assists @ Trailblazers-



* Al Jefferson OVER 23.5 points + rebounds (-115) v. Bucks- Looks to be getting back into game shape and hitting his groove. Milwaukee’s thin front line will help.

* Brandon Jennings OVER 20.5 points (-105) @ Timberwolves- Has come out of the gates like A.I. in 1996, and with Michael Redd out of the lineup, he’s the Bucks’ main offensive option.

* Al Harrington UNDER 22.5 points (-115) v. Cavaliers-

* David Lee UNDER 10.5 rebounds (-105) v. Cavaliers-

* LeBron James OVER 7.5 assists (-130) @ Knicks- His only visit to MSG in the midst of New York’s Summer of 2010 pipe dream- LBJ really has a sense of the moment and is sure to put up a great performance.

* Shaquille O'Neal OVER 12.5 points (-120) @ Knicks

* Chris Kaman UNDER 10 rebounds (-120) @ Warriors- His game is not well-suited to the pace of the Warriors’ game. There will be plenty of rebounds to grab, but fatigue and fouls will limit Kaman’s effectiveness.

* Kobe Bryant OVER 36.5 points + assists (-115) v. Grizzlies- It’s hard to see Kobe scoring less than 30 in any game that does not involve Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. Against Memphis’ D, 40 is definitely in play.

* Zach Randolph OVER 19.5 points (-115) @ Lakers- For all the questions about the Grizzlies sharing the ball, Randolph’s role has never been in question. He’s also been really effective (20/10, 30 pts in two of his last four games)

* Gerald Wallace UNDER 16.5 points (-115) v. Hawks- This looks like the right number, but until the Bobs are less offensively-challenged, it’s hard to justify backing any of their “over” props.

* Brook Lopez OVER 22.5 points + rebounds (-115) @ 76ers- Under normal circumstances he’s good for 16 and 8, but with Devin Harris out and CDR under the weather, Lopez should have a big night in Philly.

* Dwyane Wade UNDER 10 rebounds + assists (-105) v. Nuggets

* Ben Gordon UNDER 27.5 points + assists (-120) @ Magic- This line basically assumes that he’ll score 25 or more points. In general, this is too high number for him, but on the road, against one of the NBA’s top teams whom the Piston upset last week, it starts to look especially unlikely.

* Dwight Howard OVER 12 rebounds (-155) v. Pistons- Fouls limited him to 5 rebounds in 17 minutes in Detroit’s November 3 win, and that’s unlikely to happen again. Against the likes of Ben Wallace, Kwame Brown and Charlie V, 12+ boards shouldn’t be too tall an order.

* Chris Bosh UNDER 26.5 points (-110) @ Hornets- Ahead of his massive Summer ’10 payday, Bosh is off to another great start (remember last season’s opening weeks?), and it’s starting to skew his lines upward. Bosh has never been a consistent 27-point scorer- this line seems ~3 points too high.

* Brandon Roy UNDER 34.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115) v. Spurs- The Blazers haven’t found their comfort zone yet this season, and Roy is a) trying to single-handedly make them contenders and b) still working to settle in with Andre Miller. This number is in play against lesser teams, but a combined 35 on the Spurs is unlikely.

* Greg Oden UNDER 9.5 rebounds (-115) v. Spurs- He’s developing and looks like a significantly better player than he did last year, but he has issues with fouls, and the Spurs have savvy bigs (Duncan, McDyess) that will exploit this. Another Oden prop to watch: O/U 30 minutes on the floor.

* Tim Duncan OVER 14.5 points (-115) @ Trailblazers- Thanks to a deeper roster, Duncan can comfortably take on a smaller offensive role, but this number seems a low. Not crazy (I have him right around 15-16 pts), but just a little bit low.

* Kevin Garnett OVER 21.5 points + rebounds (-115) v. Suns- Even recovering from his knee and in the declining stage of his career, KG’s due to produce a big game soon. A home game against the 4-1 Suns after a day of rest seems like a low-risk proposition. Plus, this line only assumes a 14-8- Garnett hasn't slipped that far.

* Steve Nash UNDER 19.5 points (-120) @ Celtics- Even with the return of SSOL, the Suns are better off when Nash is producing 17-16 stat lines, than when he’s hitting for 22-10. If the Suns play their game and win, he’ll probably be under 20, and if Boston’s D, which did a great job v. Chris Paul, is locked in, Nash will still have a tough time scoring 20.

* Trevor Ariza UNDER 17.5 points (-115) v. Thunder- Not saying that the back-to-back 25 and 33-point games were a total fluke, but it may be early to expect 18 per game from Ariza. This numbers definitely in play, but is not a great value.

* Roy Hibbert UNDER 10.5 rebounds (-130) v. Wizards- He’s definitely developing into a solid big man, but facing a deep Wizards front line (Haywood, Oberto, Blatche and McGee), along with risk of foul trouble with Arenas constantly getting into the paint, the doesn’t seem like a great matchup for Hibbert.

* Gilbert Arenas UNDER 6.5 1st quarter points (-115) @ Pacers- Agent Zero has definitely been in playmaker mode to start all the Wizards’ games, looking to get the other guys involved before calling his own number. There no reason to look for anything different against Indy.

* Carmelo Anthony OVER 6.5 1st quarter points (-120) @ Heat- Not only does Melo look like he’s focused on joining the top tier of NBA superstars, he’ll be trying to keep the Nuggets unbeaten against 2003 Draft classmate D-Wade and his surprising 1-loss Heat. Look for him to be aggressive early and to get off to a fast start.

* Chris Paul OVER 6.5 1st quarter points (+110) v. Raptors- A big win against the Mavs, an underperforming supporting cast, his own hot shooting (63%; 62-for-97) and a home matchup against a weak defensive team with no strong inside presence? CP3 will put his stamp on this on early.

* Monta Ellis UNDER 6.5 1st quarter points (-125) v. Clippers- Should be motivated to face off against former teammate Baron Davis, but the Clippers have some big defenders that will make inside scoring tough. Plus, do we even know where he and Nellie stand? By all accounts, he’s the Warriors’ star, but there’s so much tension there that is hard to get on board with Monta right now.

We're Goin Streaking!

My top three picks for the night:

Chris Paul OVER 9.5 assists (-130):

Michael Beasley OVER 13.5 points (even):

Corey Brewer UNDER 17.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125):


Those are my top picks, and here we have the rest:


Jose Calderon OVER 17.5 points + assists (-130)

Steve Nash UNDER 2.5 3-pointers made (-125)

Dwight Howard UNDER 20.5 points (+105)

Danny Granger OVER 6.5 1st quarter points (even)

David Lee UNDER 21.5 points (-105)

Ray Allen UNDER 2.5 3-pointer made (-200)

Kobe Bryant OVER 8.5 free throws made (-105)

Shane Battier OVER 9.5 points (-115)

Joe Johnson OVER 31.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125)

Kevin Martin UNDER 2.5 3-pointers made (+135)

Rudy Gay OVER 18.5 points (-130)

Monta Ellis UNDER 5.5 1st quarter points (+115)

Dwyane Wade UNDER 38.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115)

David West OVER 20.5 points (-115)

Shawn Marion UNDER 15.5 points (-105)

Bettin On Greatness

Starting today, I'll be introducing a format change to NBA Props' daily posts that I think will be better organized and more informative to you


OVER

- Carmelo Anthony OVER 29.5 points (-115; under: -115; has since moved to 30.5 on PlayersOnly.com): Potentially a powerful emerging trend. Melo's been the league's best player in the opening week, scoring 30 or more in the each of Denver's three wins (40+ in each of the last two), and shooting phenomenally (54%FG/88%FT/43%3pt) while doing it. Not only is he cashing on J.R. Smith's absence (suspended until November 10) from the lineup, but Carmelo Anthony looks like he's making the leap from "superstar" to "SUPERstar", joining Kobe, LeBron, Dwight Howard and Dwyane Wade (and arguably others). Tonight, Melo and Chauncey Billups lead the Nuggets, who are averaging 115 points into Indiana, where they'll meet a Pacers team that's allowed 116 points in two games, and is not renowned for its defensive prowess. This line (on BetUS and initially at PlayersOnly) priced the likelihood of Carmelo scoring 30+ at 50-50- very odd considering his 37.7 ppg, but a fantastic value for a top 15-guy at the top of his game, with no injuries, taking on a below average team.

- Dwyane Wade OVER 29.5 points (-120; under: -110 on BetUS and +100 on PlayersOnly): A rested D-Wade at home against the reincarnation of Nash's SSOL Suns, who still don't prioritize defense or have a strong defensive presence inside? Book it! If we assume that Wade is good for roughly 1/3 of Miami's points (a healthy, but not excessive number) and the Suns "hold" the Heat to the average of their previous three opponents (Clippers, Warriors and Timberwolves), 107 points (106.7 to be exact), then the number for Wade is somewhere around 35. I would have loved this up to about 31.5, and was thrilled to get it at -120 (by 5pm Eastern, it had moved to -135 on PlayersOnly.com, and I could see it commanding -140 or more). Considering this is about what Wade is likely to average for the season, the fact that he's healthy and rested, and that playing Suns is akin to playing in an All-Star Game, this is a fantastic over bet.

- Kobe Bryant OVER 29.5 points (-115; under: -115): Pau Gasol still hasn't seen the floor in the regular season, Ron Artest is struggling offensively, Lamar Odom's been solid but unspectacular, and the role players have very disappointing. Yeah, Andrew Bynum is playing some fantastic ball, and while there's no reason expect that to stop tonight, this is Kobe's time. While the Lakers wait for Gasol to get healthy and for the role players to find some sort of a groove, Kobe will look to carry this team. 30 is practically a given tonight.

- Kevin Durant OVER 25.5 points (-115; under: -115): OKC has started strong, winning 2 of its first 3 games, and are sure to be tested tonight when the defending champs come to town. Also, this matchup will a clash between two of the NBA's best scorers, as up-and-comer Durant "squares off" (they won't be guarding one another) and all-timer Kobe Bryant exchange shots. Not only should this opportunity give Durant plenty of motivation to play a strong game, the only Laker with both the length and athleticism to guard, Lamar Odom, will have a tough time staying with KD. Expect to see Artest and Kobe on Durant from time to time. A win might be asking too much of the young Thunder, but they should be competitive and Durant will put up some nice offensive numbers.

- Ray Allen OVER 17.5 points (+105; under: -135): The number is right at Ray's season average (17.8), and thus far he's had 2 games over 17.5 and 2 games under, but this number has virtually no downside (you really think Ray Allen's hitting for less than, say, 15?). With the C's healthy and playing extremely well, their early schedule being light on travel, and Allen erasing two tough shooting games to open the season (11-for-33) with a pair of strong performances (15-for-24 in the last 2), the stage is set for a strong performance against an extremely reasonable number. Throw in the fact that this is an over with minimal downside, and it is paying better than even money, and you have an outstanding value proposition.

- Danny Granger OVER 2.5 Made 3-pointers (-150; under: +120): Do you realize that Danny Granger has attempted 22 3-pointers in two games? TWENTY-TWO! That's eleven per game! I'm generally less than enthusiastic about picking a guy to make three 3's in a game, and this isn't my most glowing recommendation for tonight, but it's hard to deny the fact that Granger's going to get ample opportunity to sink three from beyond the arc. The Pacers have attempted 41 3's in two games (27% of their FG attempts), and given the Nuggets' uptempo style, possessions and, consequently, 3-point looks should be relatively easy to come by. While I feel like Danny Granger will probably wind up hitting 3+ 3-pointers against the Nuggets, I found the the price of this wager (-150) a bit steep. Had this been priced in the +100/-115 range, on a night with fewer actionable situations involving blue-chip stars, this prop would be in bold.

- Dirk Nowitzki OVER 25.5 points (-115; under: -115): The Mavs look like they might be a pretty good team, but are pretty light on offense and will have to lean heavily on Nowitzki, at least until Josh Howard returns (and probably afterward as well). Other than Dirk, Jason Terry and Shawn Marion are the team's only real offensive threats, and Marion is more of an opportunistic scorer (offensive rebounds and fast breaks). In addition to being BY FAR the Mavs' best scorer, Dirk is one of the team's only two real options (the only one in the current starting five) in the half court. whether it's Carlos Boozer or Andrei Kirilenko guarding him, Dirk will have a mismatch to exploit. There's also a good chance that this game will be competitive, thus making it unlikely that Dirk's on-court minutes will be limited due to a blowout.


UNDER

- Andre Iguodala UNDER 25.5 points + rebounds (-105; over: -125): Iggy's performances early this season have been all over the map. And since his worst outing came against the Sixers' best opposition to date (8 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists @ Orlando), there's little reason to believe that he'll have much more success against a great defensive team with size and depth the frontcourt, like Boston. The Celtics will probably handle Philly without much trouble, and should be able to contain Iguodala in the process. Also, from a value perspective, this line is compelling because the over is a -125 favorite, while just a little bit of analysis tips the under as the more likely scenario.

- Carlos Boozer UNDER 19.5 points (-125; over: -105): The Bizarro Melo. We're looking to ride the hot hand of Carmelo Anthony above, and we're betting against Boozer in this cold streak with a nice, solid favorite. This is not the way to start a contract year (still sure you don't want to opt out, Carlos?)- we're no more than a handful of games from Boozer having officially cost himself millions of free-agent dollars. Through three games, he's shooting a putrid 31% from the floor (13-for-42) en route to 13 points per game, and with the Jazz not looking like an improved road team from last year, tonight's trip to Dallas, with a pair of good defenders (Shawn Marion and James Singleton) waiting, isn't likely to be Boozer's 2009-10 coming-out party. The way Carlos Boozer's started this season, it is entirely possible that there is really something wrong with him.

- Jason Kidd UNDER 9.5 assists (+100; over: -130):


STAYAWAY

- Paul Pierce- 30.5 points + rebounds + assists (over: -115; under: -115)

- Dwight Howard- 13.5 rebounds (over: -140; under: +110): Against a team with at least one front court, I like the under. I mean, grabbing 14 rebounds in an NBA game is hard, even for Dwight Howard! However, I can it happening against Detroit's less-than-stellar front line (Charlie V., Kwame Brown, and elderly Ben Wallace). I won't be betting on it, but I certainly don't want to bet against it.

- Gilbert Arenas- 6.5 1st quarter points (over: -115 on PlayersOnly; under: -115): I'd love the over here if this game was played in DC, but on the road Arenas seems doubly committed to his newfound facilitator role. Agent Zero will also be looking for his Wizards to produce in a strong effort in their first game of the season against a true title contender, and getting his teammates going early is probably the best way to do that. However, with all of that said, Arenas is still among the league's most explosive scorers, and is very capable of hitting this over in just a couple of minutes.

- Steve Nash- 10.5 assists (over: -125; under: -105)

- Luol Deng- 15.5 points (over: -125; under: -105)

- Deron Williams- 30.5 points + assists (over: -115; under: -115):

- Al Horford- 19.5 points + rebounds (over: -115; under: -115): This is a typical Al Horford line that looks (and is) extremely reachable, but is not yet a smart play against good teams with quality bigs. Until Horford shows greater consistency on offense, it's best to only pursue this type of prop against lesser, undersized teams (preferably with the Hawks at home), or to avoid them altogether.

- Brandon Roy- 22.5 points (over: -130; under: +100): As the season progresses, the over on this number, particularly at home, will be a pretty simple call. However, despite hitting for 30+ in each of his last 2, Roy has looked iffy early on, hitting 50% of his shots only once in the season's first four games (12-for-20 in his 42-point outburst against Houston), and shooting just 16-for-51 from the field in the Blazers' other three games. Against a big, athletic team like the Hawks, it's hard to get on board with the over here (especially at -130) when Roy is not shooting well to begin with. Once he's found a groove, this number is a virtual gimme.

Opening Night Jitters

We, that certainly could have gone better! Any time you can call attention to yourself and self-importantly lay out a manifesto only to whiff spectacularly on opening night, you gotta go for it, right? I couldn't have done it by myself, however. I'd like to thank Brandon Roy and Ron Artest for that combined 8-for-28 (28.6%) shooting performance. Thanks guys!

Time to get back in the saddle. It's a long season. It's a marathon, not a sprint. One day at a time. Gotta let the game come to me.

OK, the post-game press conference is out of the way, now let's sort through the wreckage. In Portland, the Trailblazers booked their first win of the season, beating the Rockets 96-87 (covering 8.5) in a game that was not nearly as competitive as the final would suggest, despite 26 turnovers (26!) by Portland. The Blazers led by double-digits for virtually the entire game, extending the lead to 20 in the second half, before faltering a bit in the fourth quarter, when the Rockets pulled to within six. With LaMarcus Aldridge in foul trouble all game, the Blazers were led by 23 (9-14, 3-5 on 3s) from Travis Outlaw, 20 points and 5 assists from Roy (more on this in a sec), and 14 (on just 7 shots) from Martell Webster. Greg Oden also deserves some credit for his rebounding (12 boards, 4 offensive) and interior D (5 blocks), with Aldridge only on the floor for half the game and Joel Przybilla fouling out with about seven minutes left in the game. Not a great win for Portland, but a win nonetheless. However, not everybody was thrilled with the Blazers last night...

As you may recall, on a night when Kobe (33 points, topping an O/U of 29) and LeBron (38, v. O/U of 29.5) kicked off their respective seasons at home, I unapologetically cast my superstar vote for Brandon Roy, proclaiming the he would rack up at least 26 points and assists. And it frankly should have worked. Had Brandon Roy, who was an awful 5-for-18 (27.8%) from the field last night, managed to make just one out of every three shots he attempted, this prop would have been a winner. This, along with the fact that, in spite of his rough shooting night, Roy had multiple (3, I believe) attempts that could have pushed his total over. If we look at this single prop in a vacuum, I can say that have no regrets about my selection- I needed Brandon Roy to shoot 33% from the field. Sadly, it didn't happen, but if could effectively bet on Brandon Roy shooting 33% every night, I would, and it would be long before I could quit my day job. The one regret that I do have, however, is that I got cute and didn't go with proven, legendary greatness. As awesome a player as I think Brandon Roy is, I could have applied the exact same criteria to Kobe Bryant and LeBron James (new season, home opener, in Kobe's case the emotion of a ring ceremony and a significantly weaker opponent) and backed one (or two) of the 15 greatest players of all time. Let's move on...

While I was confident in Brandon Roy, I was POSITIVE that Ron Artest would top 13.5 points. Alas, the newest Laker did me no favors either. Although, to be fair, at least Ron-Ron managed to outshoot Brandon Roy by making a whopping three of his ten field goal attempts. In addition to missing seven of his ten shots, Artest was off on four of his five 3-pointers and four of his seven free throw attempts. He played a solid all-around game and like Roy, Artest was not without opportunities to reach that 14-point mark (at least 3 WIDE open 3's come to mind, not mention the missed FTs), he just wound up having a brutal night shooting the ball. However, as was the case with Brandon Roy, this was a legitimate actionable situation. I still believe the premise on which I selected this line was sound. I was also given the opportunity to win, even in spite of Artest's poor shooting, which is really all you can ask for.


The main takeaways from last night's action?

* Don't get cute. There's no bonus for showing the world how freaking smart you are. Don't bypass greatness. The wins are just as sweet when you back Kobe or LeBron. Actually, they are often times more fun, because if you're on board with these guys during one of those games (I had "Kobe over 35.5 points" on the night of "81"), it is a hell of a lot of fun!

* Ideas can be perfectly logical, well thought out and justifiable- and still lose. Sometimes good players miss shots.

No more looking back! Gonna shake off opening night and take a shot at tonight's lines. Stay tuned...

Opening Night!

We're just hours from the first of four games (2 on TNT) that will tip-off the 2009-2010 season. The evening, which at the time of writing (5:25 pm Eastern) is shockingly light on props (at least according to betus.com), will begin in Cleveland, where the Cavs will host the Boston Celtics at 7:30 pm Eastern time. the Cavs look like they will be without Delonte West, whose personal problems (an arrest for riding his motorcycle with 3 loaded guns last month, and a domestic disturbance this past weekend) have severely limited his preparation for the season. The Celtics will take the floor without Glen "Big Baby" Davis, who underwent surgery on his broken right thumb, which he sustained in a fight with one of his old college teammates (Huh? Not sure why, but this wrinkle struck me as odd). Davis will reportedly be out for up to 2 months. As was the case with all of tonight's game's, the prop pickings were very slim here, with only Paul Pierce's points (18.5; a very probable over) and LeBron's points (29.5; right around where he'll end up) on the board.

Celtics-Cavs is the first game in TNT's opening night doubleheader, followed at 10:30 pm Eastern by what should be an entertaining "Battle of L.A.", but could be marred by injuries, as each team will be without at least one key frontcourt contributor. The Lakers' Pau Gasol will be out with an injured hamstring, and the Clippers' rookie stud, Blake Griffin, will be out with a broken left patella that may sideline him for 6 weeks. As if they didn't have enough to contend with on the night that Kobe receives his first post-Shaq ring, the Clippers will likely only receive limited minutes from Marcus Camby (ankle), and could be without Baron Davis (foot), who would be replaced by Sebastian Telfair (yikes!) if he is unable to go. Even without Gasol, the Lakers shouldn't really have too much trouble getting their title defense off to a successful start against the shorthanded Clippers, in a game that I thought would offer a nice variety of props. However, this game also offered just two options, on a pair of Lakers, with Kobe's points (29; a probable over, but I have no clue- we could see Facilitator Kobe) and Ron Artest's points (13.5; see below) as the only options in play.

Elsewhere in the Association, the Washington Wizards, with 2 of their 3 stars (as usual), travel to Dallas to open the season against the Mavericks at 8:30 pm. The Wiz will be without Antawn Jamison, though for the first time in quite a while, they will have a healthy Gilbert Arenas who, in addition to a clean bill of health, enters the new season with a less chatty demeanor and a vow to be an old-school playmaker. From the perspective of a prop bettor, this will have a couple of implications for the Wiz: first, Arenas has all the tools needed to lead the league in assists, and with a defiant commitment to this (which seems very possible, given his personality), could generate great value on any of his assist props; second, Agent Zero's new approach could make his scoring props bit high to start the season (his scoring could go from 29 to 22/23), but could play right into the scoring props of his teammates (well, Caron Butler; he's is the only with prop lines regularly posted), which could wind up being be good values. Like Washington, the Mavs will be without one of their best frontcourt players, as Josh Howard is sidelined (and apparently will be for a while) following offseason ankle surgery. Again, we were given a pair of props to consider, one from each team: Caron Butler's points (21; leaning under, but Arenas could get him going), and Dirk's points + rebounds (33.5; that seems like the right number)

And finally, at 10 pm, the Houston Rockets will take on the NBA's Sexiest Team for the second year running when they meet the Trailblazers at the Rose Garden, in a rematch (in name only) of last year's first round playoff series. For Houston, neither Yao nor Tracy McGrady will be on the floor, leaving the fate of the Rockets in the hands of some talented, but relatively unheralded (for the time-being) role players: Shane Battier, Trevor Ariza, Chuck Hayes, Kyle Lowry, Carl Landry and my picks as the Rockets' breakout stars for the season, Aaron Brooks and Luis Scola. I should point out that these guys are no pushover! It was more or less (swap out Ariza for Artest) this group of guys that battled the Lakers all the way to Game 7 in last year's West Semis. The Blazers, coming off a 54-win season that went a long way toward justifying some massive preseason expectations, enter this season under similar circumstances- a young, supremely gifted team looking to mature and take "The Leap". Given the Rockets' injury woes and Portland's status as no worse than "everyone's second favorite team", it's not shocking that the only prop from this game is Blazer-focused: Brnadon Roy's points + assists (25.5; see below).


Now, let's pick some winners! We've been given a modest menu from which to order, but 2 props very quickly emerged for me as the cream of today's crop on the upside:


Brandon Roy OVER 25.5 points + assists (-125) vs. Houston Rockets

For a variety of reasons, this line makes tons of sense. First, Brandon Roy is a legitimate NBA star, and will probably add a "super" to that title before very long. He's almost always good for a steady 22+ per game (22.6 last season), and averaged more than 5 assists (5.1, but still) per game last season, and there is no reason to expect that we won't equal those numbers again this year. Also, Roy, who's making a habit of meeting or exceeding high expectations, is the type of player that WILL NOT lay an egg on opening night in his own building, especially against the team that pretty handily disposed of his Blazers last spring. Though he is likely to spend a good amount of time on offense battling Battier and Ariza, Roy has an amazing knack for getting into the lane and is absolutely devastating in the pick-and-roll with LaMarcus Aldridge and, fingers crossed, the improved Greg Oden. It's not a stretch to say that he could rack 5-6 assists from these two alone. Also, we know he's not only going to get minutes, he is going to bust his ass every second he's out there. Additionally, I watched this line throughout the day, after opening at -115 for either the over or the under, it evolved into a solid favorite, with the 25.5 figure holding steady, and the over moving to -125 in the afternoon. There is a chance that Roy could obliterate this number.


Ron Artest OVER 13.5 points (-130) vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Under "normal" (yeah, I know Ron Artest is involved!) circumstances, this is frankly where we can expect Ron-Ron's scoring to be all season (12-13 ppg). As the season unfolds, I do not see Artest's scoring props, or any of his props really, as particularly compelling values. However, multiple factors are in play that point to a strong offensive game for Artest tonight. First, despite the fact that Artest was brought to L.A. as nothing higher than a third option on offense (putting him above Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum on the food chain- by means a gimme!), the absence of Pau Gasol ensures that the start to that era will be postponed for at least a couple more days, and that Kobe & Co. might need a little something extra tonight. With Pau out, we know that Ron will definitely see plenty of time on the floor, most (if not all) of it matched up against Al Thonton (a handful on offense, but plays no D) and Craig Smith. Throw in the fact that Artest, a guy who's as emotional as he is talented, along with a jacked-up sellout crowd, will watch his new teammates accept their championship rings before the game, and his desire to endear himself to the new fans and put on a championship-caliber display will be off the charts. For at least one more night, Ron Artest is the #2 option on a great team, and both his effort level and his behavior are sure to be at level befitting that. Also, as was the case with Brandon Roy above, in looking at this line throughout the day, this has the look of a solid favorite- the 13.5 figure has persisted, though it opened at -120 and has since moved to -130. While the target may seem low for Artrest, there is no "too good to be true" element here- you're paying for a good, reachable number.

Mad Props!

I've heard that in the long run, wagering on the NBA, over/unders in particular, is largely a sucker's bet. Having made several attempts to debunk this theory over an extended period of time, with little to show for it, outside of the occasional hot streak, either in my own picks league-wide or in the form of a too-hot (in some cases, cold)-to-ignore team (remember the 2-3 week runs the Seven Seconds or Less Suns would go on?), that takes on the persona of hot shooter at a craps table- even if you get arrive a bit late, get on the bandwagon and ride it as long as you can. You know the streak's gonna end, possibly very soon, but you're not gonna bet against it, and hopefully you can make a little something before the streak's end. Alas, as is to be expected, these streaks all prove to be self-correcting, making the degree of difficulty for any frequent (compulsive is just such an icky word!) gambler looking to profit from the NBA nearly insurmountable. However, based on my experience of a few months ago, there just might be an overlooked segment of the basketball gaming universe that could prove profitable to the informed, disciplined gambler. The segment I speak of, is propositions (prop) bets. On the heels of a very fun (and profitable) 2-month run in the 2009 NBA postseason, I am dedicating this corner of the Internet to the idea, right or wrong, that well thought out prop wagers can in fact be an ongoing, profitable way to enjoy the NBA. First, a bit of background:

As the playoffs kicked off last spring, I found myself in a familiar spot- having logged HUNDREDS OF HOURS of NBA viewing, knowing exactly which players were good, and why, capable of naming the second unit for most teams, even having strong opinions on numerous local broadcast teams- and still down for the year! Then a funny thing happened as the playoffs got rolling- I found myself with strong, specific opinions on not only how the games would play out, but on whose shoulders it would happen. For instance, I was "bullish on the Bulls" in Round 1 (this is documented in both writing and audio) and LOVED any matchup that the Celtics could throw at Derrick Rose. Before Game 1 in Boston, I had taken the Bulls in every which way possible ($ line, teaser and against the spread, which I believe was +8.5), but still felt like I hadn't thrown enough support behind my breakout pick, Derrick Rose. As much fun as they are (you haven't lived until you've been invested in Tony Scheffler's 3rd catch on a Monday night!), I had never been a huge fan of prop bets as a way to consistently win, but wanting to put my money where my mouth was, and at the same time possibly hedge my numerous bets on his team, I plunked down a few bucks on Rose's "points + assists" exceeding 23.5. As I'm sure you remember, my cash was never really in danger, as Rose torched the C's for 36 and 11 in Chicago's OT win, starting me down what would be quite an interesting postseason path.

As the Bulls and Celtics were winding down, LeBron James and Cavs were preparing to kick off their postseason at home against the Detroit Pistons. Looking at the line ahead of the game, I was (mistakenly) apprehensive about laying 13.5 (if memory serves) points, but knew that there was NO DAMN WAY that LeBron was going to lay an egg in the first game of what was expected to be his coronation, even if it came in a 13-point win. I took a second to think about it, and shuddered at the thought of getting financially and emotionally invested in this game, only to possibly watch LBJ slap the Pistons with 35-10-8 in a 103-90 game. After concluding that this would be a kick-in-balls loss and, being sure (as much as you can be sure in this crazy business) that LeBron would have a monster game (Think back to Magic and MJ and how they would kick off the playoffs leading a top-seeded team?), I hopped on board with the idea that he would rack up more than 42.5 "points + rebounds + assists". The Cavs dominated the game, and their 102-84 win did ultimately cover the 13.5-point spread, but I do recall some mildly dicey 4th quarter garbage-time moments- none of which affected my mood, since LeBron had already retired to the bench, having scored 38 points (you remember that unreal half-court, halftime buzz-beater?), grabbed 8 rebounds and handed out 7 assists.

Despite their reputation as being "suckers' bets", I began to realize that for anyone who's extremely well-informed on NBA statistics and trends associated with teams and players, the daily prop lines are viewed in an entirely different light, analyzed in a manner similar to the way a stock trader might assess shares of a given company relative to alternatives in the market, with some situations represent genuine value and a positive risk-reward scenario (I refer to these as "actionable situations"), while the majority offer no advantage and ought to be avoided. To this point, just as traders and investors in the financial markets are constantly warned against playing "if only...", when looking at the results of bypassed wagers, it is extremely important to assess and analyze results in order to learn as much as possible, while avoiding the temptation to play the result and lament what could have been.

As I mentioned, I was no stranger to prop bets, but had never thought about them as a viable means of consistently betting a sport, but beginning April 18, 2009, and for the remainder of the 2009 NBA postseason, I scaled back my action on game lines and traditional over/unders, and began looking very carefully at each day's individual player prop bets. Over the two months of the postseason, I studied the lines for each day's prop wagers, looking for situations that met certain criteria (see below) for "investment". Between the start of the playoffs and the Lakers' celebration in Orlando in June, I placed just under 50 individual player prop wagers (some were lost due to archiving issues, but you can see the last 38 here), with a success rate in excess of 60% which, as anyone familiar with gaming of any kind will tell you, is absurdly successful. This episode last spring got me thinking- wait a minute! I can pick and choose what part(s) of the game will matter to me. Sometimes you don't want fries with that! I can bet the NBA a la carte! Though this is a small sample, and the maintenance of this kind of success rate is highly unlikely in the long run, particularly with 30 teams (rather than a max of 16 in the postseason) to watch, many of whom are less talented and more inconsistent, I've come to really believe that with a measured and disciplined approach, it is possible to win more often than you lose with prop bets. Whether or not I am right is obviously still to b determined, but I feel like there may be something here...

** NOTE: I knew that an overwhelming majority of my wagers had been "overs", but had not realized that EVERY ONE, win or loss, was an "over". To start this season, I will simplistically be looking for situations in which the OPPOSITE of multiple (at least 2, but the more the better) criteria listed below are present **

The following criteria, referenced above, is instrumental in the selection of a "target player", as well as a prop line. The conditions below tend to be the driving force behind the identification of my "actionable situations":

1) Will your player be on the floor? MAKE SURE HE WILL BE ON THE FLOOR. This, more than any other factor, is the most vital in selection, and can be broken into five parts: First, is the player for whom you're considering an "over" bet ACTUALLY GOOD (This is sometimes black and white, but has a significant, somewhat subjective gray area)? Does he have the confidence of his coach and teammates ("young veterans" tends to work well here)? Does he consistently play big minutes in situations that are suited to his game and to the specific wager under consideration? Second, is he chronically prone to foul trouble? We'll call this the Greg Oden Principle. Now, I am decidedly pro-Oden, and have been suckered in to chasing his "over" lines, which seem artificially low and like "easy money", often times in the ~11.5 range for "points + rebounds", only to kiss my cash goodbye five minutes into the game, following foul #3 for Oden. Third, how big a threat is he to be tossed from the game? We can call this the Rasheed Wallace Corollary to the Greg Oden Principle. As much as it sucks to see Oden making a mid-first quarter trip to the pine, knowing that he won't be back until after halftime, seeing your guy fly off the handle and launch into a full-scale meltdown, earn himself a pair of T's and an escort to the locker room is enough to leave you catatonic (for a couple of minutes- any longer, and maybe you shouldn't be betting so heavily!). Unless you're getting really good value, try to lay off the loose cannons. Fourth, how often does the player in question suffer in-game injuries? Now, we're NOT talking about players that are seemingly always out for 2-4 weeks. I'm talking about guys that regularly get hurt during games, often resulting in the "injury timeout" and the dreaded need to be "helped off the floor" (we'll call this the Vince Carter Special). And finally, how often can the player be accused of "mailing in" games? Wow! Holy "VC's Greatest Hits, Batman! This one's pretty big! Lots of players and, in many cases, teams simply do not show up to play every night. To be fair, virtually every team and player in the Association has "off nights" and "letdown games", and the length of the regular season schedule makes it more difficult to identify trends, given the aforementioned larger pool of teams (with many more bad, inconsistent teams) from which to choose, and the full slate of 82 regular season games (rather than ~20 in a decent postseason run), in which even great teams will have the occasional dud (think about a strong Western team capping an 8-game trip in Milwaukee in early-March). With that said, there are certain teams (the Spurs are the best example) and players (Kobe, LeBron, Wade and Chris Paul head this list) that show up every, single night and will never coast through a game. The absence of this trait occasionally shows up in statistics (wild inconsistency is a red flag here, especially as it relates to "hustle stats", like rebounds), but there's also an element of art combined with the science. There is no substitute for watching as many games as possible to extract as much information as possible about the attitude and psyche of certain players. For instance, how hard does a guy play down by 10 in the 3rd quarter of a meaningless road game? These are the times when some players' effort wanes. Identifying the players whose effort doesn't dwindle with adversity (and those whose effort does), particularly those who seem to actually thrive on these situations (or, conversely, those who come apart at the seams), is a valuable tool in identifying strong, actionable situations.

2) Is this wager "mispriced"? So you've identified the type of player you'd like to back (or oppose). The next things to consider are the two aspects of your prospective wager- the "target figure" and the payout rate. This applies to both the actual number as well as the money line. value in the money line.

3) Are the matchups in your favor? This is fairly obvious, but can be very helpful in determining whether a given wager represents good value or a sucker's bet, but you've gotta get smart on the teams and playing styles. In the case of scoring props, the obvious focus here will be on the defensive matchup your "target player" will be facing, but you should also expand your focus to also include: strength of the opposing team's defense, "your" player's own defensive assignment (How much energy will he be expending on D? How likely is he to get into foul trouble?), and issues pertaining to playing style, both in terms of the actual style of play, as well as the likelihood of either team to control the tempo/pace/style of the game. If you're able to identify a talented guy who promises to get plenty of minutes and will be guarding an offensive "non-factor" in a game that will played in "his style", you are probably looking at an actionable situation. Additionally, and obviously, it helps to be highly aware of any injury situations, though in this case I am not referring to the target player himself, but injuries on the player's own team (Injuries to a point guard will affect scorers; conversely, injuries to scorers will adversely impact point guards; also, injuries to big men will impact the team's other big men, and in the case of a shot-blocker, could impact a defender's propensity to gamble on the perimeter) as well as on the opposing team (Is there a lock-down defender or shot-blocker that is banged up or not on the floor?). If you are considering backing someone to grab a certain number of rebounds, it helps if a high percentage shooter is out of action, in favor of a less efficient shooter.

4) Is there a trend in your favor? When considering this, it's important to consider trends unfolding not only on the floor, but with the numbers in the sportsbook as well. Obviously, if a guy is in the midst of a crazy hot (or cold) streak, assuming he's not facing some sort of nightmare matchup, it's generally not a bad idea to try and ride out the trend. Also, pay close attention to whether a player gets promoted or is given a more prominent role in his team's gameplan as a result of a run of great play (conversely, a guy may be demoted or lose minutes and/or touches as a result of a cold streak), as this will likely play out shortly before it is actually reflected in the lines. Also, before laying down any money, be sure to look at the performances of any teammates that play a similar position, as you do not want to ignorantly be on the wrong side of someone earning more minutes/touches at the expense of a teammate. It should be noted, however, that, like any "open market" figure, a persistent trend will definitely have an impact on a player's lines, with an extended run of great play "inflating" a player's numbers and diminishing value, while a legitimately good player enduring a slump (not an injury or irreparable decline, but just an honest-to-goodness slump) could see his lines adjust downward to the point of creating great value.

** NOTE: Rebounding and passing slump far less frequently than shooting does. This applies more to rebounds that it does to assists, since a guy is still relying on other to make shots in order to rack up assists. With regard to rebounding, most games will present no shortage of opportunities to grab some boards, and as much as I hate this exact cliche, "hustle never slumps". As long a guy is relatively healthy, motivated and not facing a nightmare matchup, rebounding props should generally be in play. Turning back to assists, to apply a similar cliche, "selflessness never slumps", and provided a primary ballhander (Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, LeBron, etc) is on the floor for a majority of the game, guys are eventually going to hit some shots, and keep you in the game with assists as well. Please note that this is not an implicit statement that these props will win, but in the event that a good offensive player is having a rough offensive stretch, in the right scenario you should definitely continue to be in the running on your "over" wagers focused on rebounds and assists.

Please note that the criteria below, as well as the opinions expressed on this website going forward reflect the opinions and experiences of the author and should not be interpreted as financial advice or as an advertised "betting system".