Differentiating Between Knee-jerks and Real Trends

* Amare Stoudemire OVER 20.5 points (-115) @ 76ers- Despite playing really well (20-10, 57% FG), Amare hasn't really had a statistical breakout game (think 32 & 15). Now back on good team in the SSOL system with Nash and playing for a max deal, Amare is poised to rip off one of his 3-week, 28-14 runs, and Philly is a good candidate to jumpstart him. In the Sixers' last two games Brook Lopez (22-11) and the Pistons frontcourt (16 on 7-for-12 for Charlie V., 16 boards for Big Ben and seven for Kwame Brown- on just FIVE shots!) have put up very impressive performances. Needing only 21 points for the over, at a reasonable -115 price, Amare is a solid prospect to make the over here.

* Chris Bosh OVER 24.5 points (-120) @ Spurs- Ok, kinda scared, but I'm finally buying in. I've been sucked in by Chris Bosh before, only to get burned, but if I'm going to get all riled up about Carmelo Anthony's possible leap into the top tier, it's it's only fair that I acknowledge CB4's dominant start (28.5-10.8 through 6 games). Rather greeting every strong performance with cynicism, I'm electing to point out that Bosh has hit the over on this number in five of his six games (the other was 21-16 in a win v. the Cavs), he's doing it against good teams (35 v. Orlando, 26 @ Dallas) and on the road (37 @ Memphis, 27 at NOH & Dallas). San Antonio's got the bodies to throw at him (Duncan, McDyess, Blair), but the Spurs have lost two straight (allowed 104.5 per game), giving up 27-14 to an ice-cold Carlos Boozer on Thursday night. The hot streak could run out tonight, but the over is a nicely-priced favorite (-120), with Bosh playing as well as any frontcourt player in the league.

* David Lee OVER 29.5 points + rebounds (+100) v. Jazz- A last second addition to the "locks". He's quietly hit 30+ pts/reb in four of seven, is averaging 19-10 and is scoring very well (17+ in six of seven). Tonight is a great opportunity to put up numbers with the Jazz coming to MSG. Utah is still brutal on the road and has stumbled out of the gate and is playing very un-Sloan-like ball, allowing 104 points and 41 rebounds (11 offensive boards) per game, and allowing huge games to frontcourt guys (16-11 to Kenyon Martin; 21 points to Chris Kaman, 13 boards to Camby; 14-15 to Luis Scola; 40-11 to Dirk- even excluding a 15-13 to Duncan). At an even-money payout, Lee's over looks pretty good.

* Andre Iguodala UNDER 4.5 made free throws (+110) v. Suns- Not getting to the line like he has in the past (5.8 attempts per game; 7.3, 6.2 & 6.4 last 3 yrs), not shooting particularly well when he does get there (75.4% career shooter; 68.6% this year, 10-for-19 in his last three games), and with Phoenix (not a physical team) allowing 23 attempts per game, he'd have to earn three trips to the line- AND make five of six attempts. Not seeing it.

* Deron Williams UNDER 12 assists (-115) @ Knicks- DWill is as good as any PG in the Association, with the possible exception of Nash and CP3 (but that gap is closing!), and is coming off a 15-assist game Saturday against the Kings. However, as well as he's playing right now, DWill is averaging under 10 and has hit 12+ assists just twice in six games- and 12 assists (especially without the aid of a hometown scorekeeper) is a very high number. Throw in the fact that this big a number is priced as a toss-up (-115), and there's not a lot of value here.

* Tim Duncan OVER 10.5 rebounds (-130) v. Raptors- Duncan is still Duncan. He's grabbed double-digit rebounds four times in five games (11+ three times), enters tonight's game (without Tony Parker) on two days' rest, against a perimeter-oriented front line (Bosh, Andrea Bargnani, Hedo Turkoglu). Barring a minutes-limiting blowout, 12-13 boards for Duncan looks like a safe bet.

* Stephen Jackson UNDER 1.5 3-pointers made (+120) v. Timberwolves- He's the best and most consistent of the Warriors, has made multiple 3's in four straight and five of six, and is ordinarily a pretty decent shooter. However, (Ex) Captain Jack has made just four-of-thirteen over the past two games, and has been publicly very unhappy, a fact that didn't matter until his agent chimed in on Don Nelson. Given Nellie's ability lose friends and alienate people, I wouldn't look for Jackson to get too many minutes tonight. Throw in a +120 payout on the under, and we may have an actionable situation tonight.

* Chris Paul OVER 6.5 1st quarter points (+100) @ Clippers- I've inadvertently wound up watching most of the Hornets action early this season, and if my own frustration on behalf of Chris Paul is any indication, the man himself must be ready to strangle someone. On a shaken-up roster without any chemistry, playing for a lame-duck coach that's losing (lost?) the locker room and off to a 2-5, and as one of the best young players in NBA history, CP can't be far from putting this underachieving lot on his back and keep them respectable (for as long he's healthy). As ugly as things are for the Hornets right now, Chris Paul will not mail in any games.

Cowboys-Eagles Counterprogramming Anyone?

* Kobe Bryant OVER 45.5 points + rebounds + assists (-150) v. Hornets- No Pau, no Bynum and matchup against Devin Brown? Can you think of a single reason why he won't drop 40 again? Me either. 50 is in play tonight.

* Dwight Howard UNDER 24.5 points (-115) @ Thunder- Whether or not he hits 25 points, this number is simply too high given Howard's lack of consistency and still-raw offensive game. He's just not a legit 25-a-night guy, and while OKC doesn't have anyone to battle Dwight 1-on-1, but they're long and athletic and can disrupt him inside.

* Stephen Curry UNDER 20.5 points + rebounds + assists (-130) @ Kings- Haven't addressed Curry yet this season. Great college stats and an NBA pedigree (in case you didn't know, his dad is long-time SG Dell Curry), and the fact that, by all accounts, he's fantastic human being have combined to generate a fair amount of hype around Stephen, and the consensus that he's destined for NBA stardom. There is no way! I don't care how "great a young man" he is, an undersized, not-particularly-athletic 2-guard whose reputation was built against inferior college competition? No thanks! Maybe a great guy, but he's going to be an NBA bust.

* Jason Thompson OVER 9.5 rebounds (-125) v. Warriors- Still lacks a refined offensive game, but any time he can stay out of foul trouble, Thompson is a good bet to grab double-digit rebounds. Put up 12-11 in Saturday's upset at Utah, and should be able to put up some nice rebounding numbers at home against Golden State. Unlike most big guys, he's athletic and well-conditioned enough to not be liability against the Warriors, whose style of play creates tons of rebounding chances.

* Jonny Flynn OVER .5 3-pointers made (-185) @ Trailblazers- This line is a bit pricey at -185, but he's connected from long range in four of six games (he had zero attempts in one of the other two), and is shooting 43% from 3-point range and is quickly developing into Minny's first option on the perimeter. In Portland, neither Blake nor Andre Miller will keep him from getting at least two or three clean looks from distance.

* David West OVER 18.5 points (-115) @ Lakers- Other than Chris Paul, the play of the rest of Hornets has been a depressing combination of unimpressive and uninspiring, but someone else has to occasionally score for them, right? Plus, Paul and West are extremely familiar with one another, West has scored 20+ in two of his last three games, and the Lakers are shorthanded in the frontcourt. Plus, assuming he plays at least 32 minutes, a line of 18.5 for David West is more than reasonable.

A Crappy Schedule, But All Is Not Lost

Due to a family emergency (George Corbett, 1943-2009; an exceptional man. I'm proud to have known him, and to have been members of the same family.), I raced across the country this past week and was unable to devote any amount of time to look at any props bets over the weekend (I know! The nerve, huh?). I'm back and ready to continue breaking down stats and examining the matchups and lines to see (along with you) if I have any idea what I'm doing. My triumphant return, however, coincides with a light and less-than-stellar (let it never be said that I'm not polite) NBA schedule, featuring one semi-intriguing game between a pair of mid-tier Western teams (Houston @ Utah), one bona fide superstar (Chris Paul at MSG) and three absolute stinkers (NJ @ Charlotte, Minnesota @ LAC and Memphis @ Sacramento), though one of these game features an NBA man-crushe of mine (O.J. Mayo) coming off a career game. Not to worry! In the kind, big-hearted way that we've come to expect from only them, the bookmakers saw beauty in this slump-buster of a night in the Association.


* New Jersey Nets @ Charlotte Bobcats (-7). Even when healthy, the Nets are likely to be near the bottom of the league in compelling games. Take Devin Harris (groin; out at least 7-10 days) out of the mix, and match them up against the (what's the opposite of explosive? Peaceful? Flam-retardant?) Charlotte Bobcats, who are averaging just 80 points per game (69 in their 2 losses), and even by the standards of tonight's crappy schedule, you have an absolute stinker. Please, try to avoid gambling on this game (though my thoughts on a couple of lines are below).

- Yi Jianlian, 11.5 points (BetUS.com, PlayersOnly.com): This line is set just below Yi's 3-game average (11.7 ppg). Devin Harris' injury will free up some shots for his teammates, with Yi, Brook Lopez and Chris Douglas-Roberts in the best position to benefit. Even against this positive backdrop, I would avoid this over, since his shooting has been subpar (42.8%), and both his scoring (17, to 12, to 6) and his minutes (37, 34, & 32) have fallen with each game. I'm calling this line a "stayaway", not because of just how bad this game is likely to be (as you'll see, I'm getting involved in an epic Grizzlies-Kings clash), but because this is very reachable number, but I'm not sure how eager I'd be to back an inconsistent guy on a terrible team whose numbers are going the wrong way.

- Raymond Felton, 23.5 points + rebounds + assists (BetUS.com, PlayersOnly.com): We were so close to me finally picking an under! My opinion is still that Felton will not hit this number, but this play carries a greater risk than I was comfortable with, and didn't offer compelling value on the money line (-115 each for over/under). In order to hit a combined 24 pts/reb/assts, Felton would have to have a pretty good game, but it's important to realize that he reached this mark in 45 of his 81 starts (55.6%) last season, and despite his (13.7 ppg, 4 rpg, 5 apg, 39% FG) and the Bobcats' poor play over the past week, Felton is one of few legitimate scoring options (along with Gerald Wallace, Boris Diaw and DJ Augustin, who could steal minutes from Felton), and one time this week that he did exceed 24 P/R/A was in Charlotte's home game against a crappy team from the Tri-State area (22/8/9 on 10/30 v. NYK).


* New Orleans Hornets @ New York Knicks (+3). Whether or not this game turns out to be well played (with the exception of Chris Paul), there's a good chance that it will pretty damn exciting. CP3 taking on a D'Antoni SSOL team- good times. This should really happen more often! The Knicks, rested and (hopefully) motivated for win #1, should look to get off to a quick start against the Hornets, who are in the second half of a back-to-back after a tough game in Boston last night.

- Chris Paul, 1.5 3-pointers made (PlayersOnly.com): The numbers would suggest that the under is the correct play here: In 78 games last season, CP3 made multiple 3's 17 times (21% of the time) and attempted 5 or more 3's just 7 times (8.5% of the time). I chose 5 attempts as the cutoff because it's not prudent to assume that a player, particularly one without a proven track record as an outside shooter, will hit on more than 40% of his 3's in a random game. He's started this season very well from beyond the arc, hitting on five of his six attempts in three games (obviously not sustainable over any extended period), and has yet to attempt more than three in game, suggesting that multiple 3's are unlikely in any game in which he's not riding a hot streak. With that said, not only does this line not offer good value (-135 on the under), CP3 is on the short list of players whom I refuse to bet against individually (Kobe, LeBron, D-Wade, Carmelo Anthony is the short list).

- David Lee, 10.5 rebounds (BetUS.com, PlayersOnly.com): See below.


* Houston Rockets @ Utah Jazz (-7.5). This Rockets team is tough. After a tough game in Portland on opening night, they've really raised their offensive game, although having given up 107 points in each of the last 2 games, they might want to address some things on D. However, with that said, barring any further injury, the Rockets will be a very competitive team and should win ~45 games this year (man, that preseason line of 37.5 wins looks low now!). Beating a rested Utah team coming off a win their home opener will be a challenge, but I expect the Rockets to give a good showing. I'd probably take the points.

- Aaron Brooks, 5.5 3-point attempts (PlayersOnly.com): This season, as long as he's on the floor, Brooks could hit the over on this line in two out of every three games. He averaged just under 4 attempts per game last season (included ~5/game in March) and has attempted six 3's in each of the first three games in 2009-10,and has improved his performance with each game (0-for-6 @ Portland; 3-for-6 @ GS; 4-for-6 v. Portland). On the current roster, Brooks is the Rockets' top offensive threat (a couple more big games from Trevor Ariza and we'll add him to the list), and should be on the floor for at least 40 minutes per game, since he's been outstanding at the PG spot (8.3 apg, 2.27 asst/TO). On the upside, this, along with OJ Mayo's line (we'll get to this in a second), are the bets of tonight's lot.

- Carlos Boozer, 27.5 points + rebounds (BetUS, PlayersOnly.com): See below.


* Memphis Grizzlies @ Sacramento Kings (-1). Make no mistake, this is a matchup of teams that will struggle to be mediocre, but the Grizzlies will at least put up points and produce some stretches of very exciting play. Between OJ Mayo (I have a part-time job driving his bandwagon), Zach Randolph (bad teammate and a black hole in the post, but really talented) Allen Iverson (will turn back the clock in spurts) and Rudy Gay (awesome wing guy and a slightly underrated shooter) will play some nice ball, but sadly it seems as though they forget to guard the members of the opposing team.

- OJ Mayo, 26.5 points + rebounds + assists (BetUS.com, PlayersOnly.com): See below.

- Kevin Martin, 6.5 1st quarter points (PlayersOnly.com): Based on last season's stats, the over is not a bad play- A solid favorite (-145) on a great shooter (his >90% on FTs is a huge help) who's the primary offensive option on a team that lacks talent. In 2008-09, Martin played an average of more than 10 minutes in the 1st quarter, scoring 6.8 points and shooting very well (48%FG/86%FT/40%3pt). K-Mart struggled from the floor in 1Q of his first two games of 2009-10 (2-for11 combined), before making four of six in San Antonio on Halloween, but it should be noted that he's getting plenty of early shots. Toss in the fact(s) that he's missed just one free throw in three games (24-for-25) and this is his home opener, and you could really do worse than backing K-Mart in this game.


* Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Clippers (-8). Most people would consider this a crappy game, but unlike Nets-Bobs or Grizzlies-Kings, there are some interesting subplots to watch here. Despite the combined 1-6 record, this game is more of "basketball nerd special" in terms of things to watch for: Baron Davis is the key to the Clippers- it is interesting to see if he's healthy and at least "not unhappy"; the Clippers' have an outstanding inside duo in Chris Kaman and Marcus Camby, who are fun to watch when they're playing well together; Eric Gordon is a future (not too distant) 25-point scorer, and a pleasure to watch; Al Jefferson, coming back from ACL surgery, looks to be getting close to 100%; injury-plagued lottery pick Corey Brewer is finally getting some real minutes and looks like a good NBA player.

- Jonny Flynn, .5 3-pointers made (PlayersOnly.com): Flynn is another compelling young player in this game. He's off to good start, averaging 15.3 ppg (on close to 50%FG), 3 assists and almost 2 steals. He is an exciting, potentially very good young player, but taking a look at the line for this wager, I can't help but think that this would be a pure gamble. Flynn is 2-for-4 in the early going, and while it's safe to assume that most backcourt starters in the NBA will attempt at least a couple of 3's in most games, the lack of a meaningful amount of pro data, along with potential of Ramon Sessions to dramatically eat into his minutes really hurts this proposition from a risk-reward perspective.


- David Lee OVER 10.5 rebounds (-115 on BetUS & PlayersOnly): BIG fan of the over on this line! This is what David Lee does- and does it well. In the 2008-09 season, Lee grabbed 11 or more rebounds in more than 70% (57-of-81) of his games, and although he off to a slow rebounding start (for him), hitting double-digits just once in three games, he's one of the best pure rebounders in the league, and as long as he's healthy and not in foul trouble, he will get lots of minutes, and in a matchup of subpar teams (yes, the Hornets are subpar), there are sure to be plenty of rebounds to be gotten.

- Carlos Boozer UNDER 27.5 points + rebounds (-115 on BEtUS & Playersonly): A far more attractive proposition than the 31.5 he faced on opening night, and seemingly a logical number based on how he's been playing (in just 2 games, he's put up 21-11 and 20-12), but he's shot terribly this week (12-for-36 from the field). This prop is priced as a toss-up (-115 either way), but Boozer's poor shooting, the presence of Paul Millsap and Houston's three physical, athletic bigs (Luis Scola, Carl Landry and Chuck Hayes) make the under an attractive, actionable situation. You know what that is? Huh? Do you? That's me picking an under, baby!!!

- OJ Mayo OVER 26.5 points + rebounds + assists (-130 on BetUS.com): Take this one to the bank. Now, I am admittedly biased- I am an O.J. Mayo fan and firmly believe that he will be one of the NBA's top 20-25 players by the end of the season. With that said, there is an objective argument to be made in favor of the over on this line. Last season, as a rookie, he averaged 18.5/3.8/3.2, putting him 1 point below this line on an "average" night and reaching this number 44% of the time (36 times). Three games into this season, his 22/5.7/3 averages comfortably surpassing this line (~31, v. 26.5). More importantly, Mayo plays with a certain "Kobe-esque" streak, seeming to never believe that he's not the best player on the floor and making the very most of every last hot streak, and he enters tonight's game, against possibly the worst team in the NBA (and Kevin Martin, not exactly a defensive stopper!), on the heels of a truly great performance, and the best of his young career (40 points, 17-25 FG, 4-8 from 3, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 0 turnovers). Under ordinary circumstances, he'd stand to get minutes (36/game through 3) and shot attempts (18/game), but coming off his first career 40-point game and trading blows with a red-hot Carmelo Anthony, it's a safe bet that O.J. will be aggressive tonight (looking for at least 25 points). Toss in a small sideline squabble with Rudy Gay about defensive effort, and we're likely to see Mayo trying to prove a point by crashing the boards (he's already averaging almost 6 per game). LOVE. THIS. OVER.