* Chris Kaman OVER 9.5 rebounds (-125) v. Hornets- When healthy (which he is now), he's one of the league's best pure centers (by my estimation, just ten remain, and only Dwight Howard and possibly Andrew Bynum are better), the newly-named Western Conference Player of the Week and a very good rebounder. It's hard to believe that he's only gotten double-digit rebounds twice this year, but given how well he's playing, that number's a great bet to rise to three against the uninspiring Hornets, who really don't have anyone on the roster that can match Kaman physically. If the line doesn't rise to 10, the money line, -125 now, could move to the -140/-150 range.
* Dwight Howard OVER 29.5 points + rebounds (-115) v. Cavaliers- Really a fan of this prop. Orlando's biggest game thus far, as LeBron returns to the scene of last season's disappointing end, accompanied by Orlando's one-time-face of-the-franchise big man. Shaq hasn't exactly been complimentary to Orlando's current incarnation of Superman, but doesn't have nearly the physical tools left to back up his talk when matched up with Howard. Barring foul trouble (the risk of which kept this from being a lock), it's totally reasonable to expect something along the lines of 22-14 from him.
* LeBron James OVER 28.5 points (-120) @ Magic- This is an average to below-average scoring night for LBJ, and likely will be for the better part of the next decade. If you have to bet on this, 30+ is the likelier scenario, but keep a couple of potential risks in mine: first, Shaq clogs up a lot of the middle of the floor, where LeBron operates best; second, more than any other defender in the league, Dwight Howard is on LeBron's mind whenever he's on the floor, which sometimes turns LBJ into a jumpshooter; third, if he's at his all-around best, LeBron could throw up a brilliant 27-12-12, great for the Cavs, bad for the over. Not a huge risk, but I'm just saying...
* Stephen Curry UNDER 9.5 points (-105) @ Pacers- Physically overmatched and as big a defensive liability as there is in the NBA, and not making up for it on offense. His scoring (single digits in the last 4 games), shooting percentage (7-for-23 in the last 3 games) and, consequently, his minutes (75 in the first 2 games, 31 or fewer in every games since) are steadily declining. Until there is any indication that 1) Stephen Curry is a consistent double-digit NBA scorer and 2) he can defend well enough to ensure time on the floor, there's no reason to even consider the over on any of his lines.
* Danny Granger- OVER 2.5 made 3-pointers (-120) v. Warriors- He's averaging a staggering 10.2 3-point ATTEMPTS (51 in 5 games), and he's not even shooting them well (29.4%). He's obviously not easily discouraged. Imagine what'll happen when he actually makes a couple in a row! That, combined with a track meet against the Warriors, has me expecting at least a dozen attempts from Granger, three of which are bound to go in, even at his current 29% clip.
* Carlos Boozer UNDER 11.5 rebounds (-115) @ Celtics- He's been hitting the boards really well as of late (45 in his last three games), but it helps to keep in mind that the last two came against the Kings and the Knicks. Facing the Celtics, who have KG, Rasheed Wallace, Kendrick Perkins and Paul Pierce healthy and averaging a combined 23+ rebounds per game, and have only allowed 12 rebounds twice this season (Gerald Wallace, mostly in garbage time, and Josh Boone). With Boston's defensive intensity and length in frontcourt, this will almost certainly be Boozer's toughest game thus far. Don't see him extending his strong run.
* Raymond Felton UNDER 21.5 points + assists (-115) @ Pistons- Not to be an ass about it, but how dumb does Vegas think we are? Where did this number come from? It's too high, plain and simple. Sure, he's topped this number in each of his last two, but Felton's combined season averages are sub-18 (12.4 ppg, 5.4 apg) and, simply put, he's just not a good enough player to hit this figure on a nightly basis (yeah, I'm fighting a trend, but this one deserves to be fought). Additionally, Felton doesn't have a favorable matchup against which to top his regular season average by 20%, facing off against the much stronger Pistons' PGs Rodney Stuckey and Will Bynum.
* Brandon Roy UNDER 21.5 points (-105) @ Timberwolves-
* Al Jefferson OVER 4.5 1st quarter points (-105) v. Trailblazers- Big Al hasn't hit his stride yet, but he's really starting to look comfortable in the post again, and should have every opportunity to get off to a strong start against the Blazers and foul-prone Greg Oden. At 1-7 and having dropped six in a row, the Wolves REALLY need a win, and they should be looking to ride their best (by far) player to get it. Jefferson's low post footwork (second best in the game, behind Duncan), his collection of fakes and post moves and Oden proclivity for biting on pump-fakes should give him every opportunity put up 5 in the first.
* Richard Jefferson UNDER 5.5 1st quarter points (-125) v. Mavericks-
* Amare Stoudemire UNDER 21.5 points (-115) v. Hornets- I fought this trend when the Suns visited Philly- not again! Amare is absolutely not the same player as he has been in years past, and he's slipped on Nash's list of favorite targets, falling to third on the Suns' list of option on offense. Amare's scored 22+ in just two of eight games this season, and until he regains his form and shows that he's a legitimate 20-point scorer again, there's not much sense in backing the over on any of scoring-related props.
* Chris Paul over 10.5 assists (-135) @ Suns- This one's not overly complicated. 10.5 isn't an outlandish line for Chris Paul in an ordinary game, so you gotta love his assist prospects any time he gets to play a SSOL game against Nash & Co. Coming off a strong, blowout win over the Clippers in L.A., and considering the Suns' disdain for defense, CP3's disappointing Hornets could be starting to put together a decent run.
And the remainder of tonight's prop lines:
* Derrick Rose UNDER 26.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115)
* Hedo Turkoglu UNDER 16.5 points (-105) v. Bulls
* Joe Johnson OVER 1.5 made 3-pointers (-105) @ Knicks
* Al Harrington UNDER 20.5 points (-115) v. Hawks
* Andre Iguodala OVER 19.5 points (-105) @ Nets
* Paul Pierce UNDER 1.5 made 3-pointers (-125) v. Jazz
* Ben Gordon UNDER 5.5 1st quarter points (+120) v. Bobcats
* Carmelo Anthony UNDER 9.5 made free throws (-125) @ Bucks
* Brandon Jennings UNDER 1.5 made 3-pointers (+120) v. Nuggets
* OJ Mayo OVER 4.5 1st quarter points (-115) @ Rockets
* Aaron Brooks UNDER 2.5 made 3-pointers (-105) v. Grizzlies
* Jason Kidd UNDER 22.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115) @ Spurs
* Kevin Durant UNDER 37.5 points + rebounds + assists (-105) @ Clippers
Showing posts with label Boston Celtics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Boston Celtics. Show all posts
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Friday, November 6, 2009
Looking to KD, Lou and TP on a Jam-Packed Night
* Kevin Durant OVER 31.5 points + rebounds @ Rockets-
* Lou Williams OVER 25.5 points + rebounds + assists v. Nets-
* Tony Parker OVER 22.5 points + assists @ Trailblazers-
* Al Jefferson OVER 23.5 points + rebounds (-115) v. Bucks- Looks to be getting back into game shape and hitting his groove. Milwaukee’s thin front line will help.
* Brandon Jennings OVER 20.5 points (-105) @ Timberwolves- Has come out of the gates like A.I. in 1996, and with Michael Redd out of the lineup, he’s the Bucks’ main offensive option.
* Al Harrington UNDER 22.5 points (-115) v. Cavaliers-
* David Lee UNDER 10.5 rebounds (-105) v. Cavaliers-
* LeBron James OVER 7.5 assists (-130) @ Knicks- His only visit to MSG in the midst of New York’s Summer of 2010 pipe dream- LBJ really has a sense of the moment and is sure to put up a great performance.
* Shaquille O'Neal OVER 12.5 points (-120) @ Knicks
* Chris Kaman UNDER 10 rebounds (-120) @ Warriors- His game is not well-suited to the pace of the Warriors’ game. There will be plenty of rebounds to grab, but fatigue and fouls will limit Kaman’s effectiveness.
* Kobe Bryant OVER 36.5 points + assists (-115) v. Grizzlies- It’s hard to see Kobe scoring less than 30 in any game that does not involve Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. Against Memphis’ D, 40 is definitely in play.
* Zach Randolph OVER 19.5 points (-115) @ Lakers- For all the questions about the Grizzlies sharing the ball, Randolph’s role has never been in question. He’s also been really effective (20/10, 30 pts in two of his last four games)
* Gerald Wallace UNDER 16.5 points (-115) v. Hawks- This looks like the right number, but until the Bobs are less offensively-challenged, it’s hard to justify backing any of their “over” props.
* Brook Lopez OVER 22.5 points + rebounds (-115) @ 76ers- Under normal circumstances he’s good for 16 and 8, but with Devin Harris out and CDR under the weather, Lopez should have a big night in Philly.
* Dwyane Wade UNDER 10 rebounds + assists (-105) v. Nuggets
* Ben Gordon UNDER 27.5 points + assists (-120) @ Magic- This line basically assumes that he’ll score 25 or more points. In general, this is too high number for him, but on the road, against one of the NBA’s top teams whom the Piston upset last week, it starts to look especially unlikely.
* Dwight Howard OVER 12 rebounds (-155) v. Pistons- Fouls limited him to 5 rebounds in 17 minutes in Detroit’s November 3 win, and that’s unlikely to happen again. Against the likes of Ben Wallace, Kwame Brown and Charlie V, 12+ boards shouldn’t be too tall an order.
* Chris Bosh UNDER 26.5 points (-110) @ Hornets- Ahead of his massive Summer ’10 payday, Bosh is off to another great start (remember last season’s opening weeks?), and it’s starting to skew his lines upward. Bosh has never been a consistent 27-point scorer- this line seems ~3 points too high.
* Brandon Roy UNDER 34.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115) v. Spurs- The Blazers haven’t found their comfort zone yet this season, and Roy is a) trying to single-handedly make them contenders and b) still working to settle in with Andre Miller. This number is in play against lesser teams, but a combined 35 on the Spurs is unlikely.
* Greg Oden UNDER 9.5 rebounds (-115) v. Spurs- He’s developing and looks like a significantly better player than he did last year, but he has issues with fouls, and the Spurs have savvy bigs (Duncan, McDyess) that will exploit this. Another Oden prop to watch: O/U 30 minutes on the floor.
* Tim Duncan OVER 14.5 points (-115) @ Trailblazers- Thanks to a deeper roster, Duncan can comfortably take on a smaller offensive role, but this number seems a low. Not crazy (I have him right around 15-16 pts), but just a little bit low.
* Kevin Garnett OVER 21.5 points + rebounds (-115) v. Suns- Even recovering from his knee and in the declining stage of his career, KG’s due to produce a big game soon. A home game against the 4-1 Suns after a day of rest seems like a low-risk proposition. Plus, this line only assumes a 14-8- Garnett hasn't slipped that far.
* Steve Nash UNDER 19.5 points (-120) @ Celtics- Even with the return of SSOL, the Suns are better off when Nash is producing 17-16 stat lines, than when he’s hitting for 22-10. If the Suns play their game and win, he’ll probably be under 20, and if Boston’s D, which did a great job v. Chris Paul, is locked in, Nash will still have a tough time scoring 20.
* Trevor Ariza UNDER 17.5 points (-115) v. Thunder- Not saying that the back-to-back 25 and 33-point games were a total fluke, but it may be early to expect 18 per game from Ariza. This numbers definitely in play, but is not a great value.
* Roy Hibbert UNDER 10.5 rebounds (-130) v. Wizards- He’s definitely developing into a solid big man, but facing a deep Wizards front line (Haywood, Oberto, Blatche and McGee), along with risk of foul trouble with Arenas constantly getting into the paint, the doesn’t seem like a great matchup for Hibbert.
* Gilbert Arenas UNDER 6.5 1st quarter points (-115) @ Pacers- Agent Zero has definitely been in playmaker mode to start all the Wizards’ games, looking to get the other guys involved before calling his own number. There no reason to look for anything different against Indy.
* Carmelo Anthony OVER 6.5 1st quarter points (-120) @ Heat- Not only does Melo look like he’s focused on joining the top tier of NBA superstars, he’ll be trying to keep the Nuggets unbeaten against 2003 Draft classmate D-Wade and his surprising 1-loss Heat. Look for him to be aggressive early and to get off to a fast start.
* Chris Paul OVER 6.5 1st quarter points (+110) v. Raptors- A big win against the Mavs, an underperforming supporting cast, his own hot shooting (63%; 62-for-97) and a home matchup against a weak defensive team with no strong inside presence? CP3 will put his stamp on this on early.
* Monta Ellis UNDER 6.5 1st quarter points (-125) v. Clippers- Should be motivated to face off against former teammate Baron Davis, but the Clippers have some big defenders that will make inside scoring tough. Plus, do we even know where he and Nellie stand? By all accounts, he’s the Warriors’ star, but there’s so much tension there that is hard to get on board with Monta right now.
* Lou Williams OVER 25.5 points + rebounds + assists v. Nets-
* Tony Parker OVER 22.5 points + assists @ Trailblazers-
* Al Jefferson OVER 23.5 points + rebounds (-115) v. Bucks- Looks to be getting back into game shape and hitting his groove. Milwaukee’s thin front line will help.
* Brandon Jennings OVER 20.5 points (-105) @ Timberwolves- Has come out of the gates like A.I. in 1996, and with Michael Redd out of the lineup, he’s the Bucks’ main offensive option.
* Al Harrington UNDER 22.5 points (-115) v. Cavaliers-
* David Lee UNDER 10.5 rebounds (-105) v. Cavaliers-
* LeBron James OVER 7.5 assists (-130) @ Knicks- His only visit to MSG in the midst of New York’s Summer of 2010 pipe dream- LBJ really has a sense of the moment and is sure to put up a great performance.
* Shaquille O'Neal OVER 12.5 points (-120) @ Knicks
* Chris Kaman UNDER 10 rebounds (-120) @ Warriors- His game is not well-suited to the pace of the Warriors’ game. There will be plenty of rebounds to grab, but fatigue and fouls will limit Kaman’s effectiveness.
* Kobe Bryant OVER 36.5 points + assists (-115) v. Grizzlies- It’s hard to see Kobe scoring less than 30 in any game that does not involve Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. Against Memphis’ D, 40 is definitely in play.
* Zach Randolph OVER 19.5 points (-115) @ Lakers- For all the questions about the Grizzlies sharing the ball, Randolph’s role has never been in question. He’s also been really effective (20/10, 30 pts in two of his last four games)
* Gerald Wallace UNDER 16.5 points (-115) v. Hawks- This looks like the right number, but until the Bobs are less offensively-challenged, it’s hard to justify backing any of their “over” props.
* Brook Lopez OVER 22.5 points + rebounds (-115) @ 76ers- Under normal circumstances he’s good for 16 and 8, but with Devin Harris out and CDR under the weather, Lopez should have a big night in Philly.
* Dwyane Wade UNDER 10 rebounds + assists (-105) v. Nuggets
* Ben Gordon UNDER 27.5 points + assists (-120) @ Magic- This line basically assumes that he’ll score 25 or more points. In general, this is too high number for him, but on the road, against one of the NBA’s top teams whom the Piston upset last week, it starts to look especially unlikely.
* Dwight Howard OVER 12 rebounds (-155) v. Pistons- Fouls limited him to 5 rebounds in 17 minutes in Detroit’s November 3 win, and that’s unlikely to happen again. Against the likes of Ben Wallace, Kwame Brown and Charlie V, 12+ boards shouldn’t be too tall an order.
* Chris Bosh UNDER 26.5 points (-110) @ Hornets- Ahead of his massive Summer ’10 payday, Bosh is off to another great start (remember last season’s opening weeks?), and it’s starting to skew his lines upward. Bosh has never been a consistent 27-point scorer- this line seems ~3 points too high.
* Brandon Roy UNDER 34.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115) v. Spurs- The Blazers haven’t found their comfort zone yet this season, and Roy is a) trying to single-handedly make them contenders and b) still working to settle in with Andre Miller. This number is in play against lesser teams, but a combined 35 on the Spurs is unlikely.
* Greg Oden UNDER 9.5 rebounds (-115) v. Spurs- He’s developing and looks like a significantly better player than he did last year, but he has issues with fouls, and the Spurs have savvy bigs (Duncan, McDyess) that will exploit this. Another Oden prop to watch: O/U 30 minutes on the floor.
* Tim Duncan OVER 14.5 points (-115) @ Trailblazers- Thanks to a deeper roster, Duncan can comfortably take on a smaller offensive role, but this number seems a low. Not crazy (I have him right around 15-16 pts), but just a little bit low.
* Kevin Garnett OVER 21.5 points + rebounds (-115) v. Suns- Even recovering from his knee and in the declining stage of his career, KG’s due to produce a big game soon. A home game against the 4-1 Suns after a day of rest seems like a low-risk proposition. Plus, this line only assumes a 14-8- Garnett hasn't slipped that far.
* Steve Nash UNDER 19.5 points (-120) @ Celtics- Even with the return of SSOL, the Suns are better off when Nash is producing 17-16 stat lines, than when he’s hitting for 22-10. If the Suns play their game and win, he’ll probably be under 20, and if Boston’s D, which did a great job v. Chris Paul, is locked in, Nash will still have a tough time scoring 20.
* Trevor Ariza UNDER 17.5 points (-115) v. Thunder- Not saying that the back-to-back 25 and 33-point games were a total fluke, but it may be early to expect 18 per game from Ariza. This numbers definitely in play, but is not a great value.
* Roy Hibbert UNDER 10.5 rebounds (-130) v. Wizards- He’s definitely developing into a solid big man, but facing a deep Wizards front line (Haywood, Oberto, Blatche and McGee), along with risk of foul trouble with Arenas constantly getting into the paint, the doesn’t seem like a great matchup for Hibbert.
* Gilbert Arenas UNDER 6.5 1st quarter points (-115) @ Pacers- Agent Zero has definitely been in playmaker mode to start all the Wizards’ games, looking to get the other guys involved before calling his own number. There no reason to look for anything different against Indy.
* Carmelo Anthony OVER 6.5 1st quarter points (-120) @ Heat- Not only does Melo look like he’s focused on joining the top tier of NBA superstars, he’ll be trying to keep the Nuggets unbeaten against 2003 Draft classmate D-Wade and his surprising 1-loss Heat. Look for him to be aggressive early and to get off to a fast start.
* Chris Paul OVER 6.5 1st quarter points (+110) v. Raptors- A big win against the Mavs, an underperforming supporting cast, his own hot shooting (63%; 62-for-97) and a home matchup against a weak defensive team with no strong inside presence? CP3 will put his stamp on this on early.
* Monta Ellis UNDER 6.5 1st quarter points (-125) v. Clippers- Should be motivated to face off against former teammate Baron Davis, but the Clippers have some big defenders that will make inside scoring tough. Plus, do we even know where he and Nellie stand? By all accounts, he’s the Warriors’ star, but there’s so much tension there that is hard to get on board with Monta right now.
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
We're Goin Streaking!
My top three picks for the night:
Chris Paul OVER 9.5 assists (-130):
Michael Beasley OVER 13.5 points (even):
Corey Brewer UNDER 17.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125):
Those are my top picks, and here we have the rest:
Jose Calderon OVER 17.5 points + assists (-130)
Steve Nash UNDER 2.5 3-pointers made (-125)
Dwight Howard UNDER 20.5 points (+105)
Danny Granger OVER 6.5 1st quarter points (even)
David Lee UNDER 21.5 points (-105)
Ray Allen UNDER 2.5 3-pointer made (-200)
Kobe Bryant OVER 8.5 free throws made (-105)
Shane Battier OVER 9.5 points (-115)
Joe Johnson OVER 31.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125)
Kevin Martin UNDER 2.5 3-pointers made (+135)
Rudy Gay OVER 18.5 points (-130)
Monta Ellis UNDER 5.5 1st quarter points (+115)
Dwyane Wade UNDER 38.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115)
David West OVER 20.5 points (-115)
Shawn Marion UNDER 15.5 points (-105)
Chris Paul OVER 9.5 assists (-130):
Michael Beasley OVER 13.5 points (even):
Corey Brewer UNDER 17.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125):
Those are my top picks, and here we have the rest:
Jose Calderon OVER 17.5 points + assists (-130)
Steve Nash UNDER 2.5 3-pointers made (-125)
Dwight Howard UNDER 20.5 points (+105)
Danny Granger OVER 6.5 1st quarter points (even)
David Lee UNDER 21.5 points (-105)
Ray Allen UNDER 2.5 3-pointer made (-200)
Kobe Bryant OVER 8.5 free throws made (-105)
Shane Battier OVER 9.5 points (-115)
Joe Johnson OVER 31.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125)
Kevin Martin UNDER 2.5 3-pointers made (+135)
Rudy Gay OVER 18.5 points (-130)
Monta Ellis UNDER 5.5 1st quarter points (+115)
Dwyane Wade UNDER 38.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115)
David West OVER 20.5 points (-115)
Shawn Marion UNDER 15.5 points (-105)
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Bettin On Greatness
Starting today, I'll be introducing a format change to NBA Props' daily posts that I think will be better organized and more informative to you
OVER
- Carmelo Anthony OVER 29.5 points (-115; under: -115; has since moved to 30.5 on PlayersOnly.com): Potentially a powerful emerging trend. Melo's been the league's best player in the opening week, scoring 30 or more in the each of Denver's three wins (40+ in each of the last two), and shooting phenomenally (54%FG/88%FT/43%3pt) while doing it. Not only is he cashing on J.R. Smith's absence (suspended until November 10) from the lineup, but Carmelo Anthony looks like he's making the leap from "superstar" to "SUPERstar", joining Kobe, LeBron, Dwight Howard and Dwyane Wade (and arguably others). Tonight, Melo and Chauncey Billups lead the Nuggets, who are averaging 115 points into Indiana, where they'll meet a Pacers team that's allowed 116 points in two games, and is not renowned for its defensive prowess. This line (on BetUS and initially at PlayersOnly) priced the likelihood of Carmelo scoring 30+ at 50-50- very odd considering his 37.7 ppg, but a fantastic value for a top 15-guy at the top of his game, with no injuries, taking on a below average team.
- Dwyane Wade OVER 29.5 points (-120; under: -110 on BetUS and +100 on PlayersOnly): A rested D-Wade at home against the reincarnation of Nash's SSOL Suns, who still don't prioritize defense or have a strong defensive presence inside? Book it! If we assume that Wade is good for roughly 1/3 of Miami's points (a healthy, but not excessive number) and the Suns "hold" the Heat to the average of their previous three opponents (Clippers, Warriors and Timberwolves), 107 points (106.7 to be exact), then the number for Wade is somewhere around 35. I would have loved this up to about 31.5, and was thrilled to get it at -120 (by 5pm Eastern, it had moved to -135 on PlayersOnly.com, and I could see it commanding -140 or more). Considering this is about what Wade is likely to average for the season, the fact that he's healthy and rested, and that playing Suns is akin to playing in an All-Star Game, this is a fantastic over bet.
- Kobe Bryant OVER 29.5 points (-115; under: -115): Pau Gasol still hasn't seen the floor in the regular season, Ron Artest is struggling offensively, Lamar Odom's been solid but unspectacular, and the role players have very disappointing. Yeah, Andrew Bynum is playing some fantastic ball, and while there's no reason expect that to stop tonight, this is Kobe's time. While the Lakers wait for Gasol to get healthy and for the role players to find some sort of a groove, Kobe will look to carry this team. 30 is practically a given tonight.
- Kevin Durant OVER 25.5 points (-115; under: -115): OKC has started strong, winning 2 of its first 3 games, and are sure to be tested tonight when the defending champs come to town. Also, this matchup will a clash between two of the NBA's best scorers, as up-and-comer Durant "squares off" (they won't be guarding one another) and all-timer Kobe Bryant exchange shots. Not only should this opportunity give Durant plenty of motivation to play a strong game, the only Laker with both the length and athleticism to guard, Lamar Odom, will have a tough time staying with KD. Expect to see Artest and Kobe on Durant from time to time. A win might be asking too much of the young Thunder, but they should be competitive and Durant will put up some nice offensive numbers.
- Ray Allen OVER 17.5 points (+105; under: -135): The number is right at Ray's season average (17.8), and thus far he's had 2 games over 17.5 and 2 games under, but this number has virtually no downside (you really think Ray Allen's hitting for less than, say, 15?). With the C's healthy and playing extremely well, their early schedule being light on travel, and Allen erasing two tough shooting games to open the season (11-for-33) with a pair of strong performances (15-for-24 in the last 2), the stage is set for a strong performance against an extremely reasonable number. Throw in the fact that this is an over with minimal downside, and it is paying better than even money, and you have an outstanding value proposition.
- Danny Granger OVER 2.5 Made 3-pointers (-150; under: +120): Do you realize that Danny Granger has attempted 22 3-pointers in two games? TWENTY-TWO! That's eleven per game! I'm generally less than enthusiastic about picking a guy to make three 3's in a game, and this isn't my most glowing recommendation for tonight, but it's hard to deny the fact that Granger's going to get ample opportunity to sink three from beyond the arc. The Pacers have attempted 41 3's in two games (27% of their FG attempts), and given the Nuggets' uptempo style, possessions and, consequently, 3-point looks should be relatively easy to come by. While I feel like Danny Granger will probably wind up hitting 3+ 3-pointers against the Nuggets, I found the the price of this wager (-150) a bit steep. Had this been priced in the +100/-115 range, on a night with fewer actionable situations involving blue-chip stars, this prop would be in bold.
- Dirk Nowitzki OVER 25.5 points (-115; under: -115): The Mavs look like they might be a pretty good team, but are pretty light on offense and will have to lean heavily on Nowitzki, at least until Josh Howard returns (and probably afterward as well). Other than Dirk, Jason Terry and Shawn Marion are the team's only real offensive threats, and Marion is more of an opportunistic scorer (offensive rebounds and fast breaks). In addition to being BY FAR the Mavs' best scorer, Dirk is one of the team's only two real options (the only one in the current starting five) in the half court. whether it's Carlos Boozer or Andrei Kirilenko guarding him, Dirk will have a mismatch to exploit. There's also a good chance that this game will be competitive, thus making it unlikely that Dirk's on-court minutes will be limited due to a blowout.
UNDER
- Andre Iguodala UNDER 25.5 points + rebounds (-105; over: -125): Iggy's performances early this season have been all over the map. And since his worst outing came against the Sixers' best opposition to date (8 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists @ Orlando), there's little reason to believe that he'll have much more success against a great defensive team with size and depth the frontcourt, like Boston. The Celtics will probably handle Philly without much trouble, and should be able to contain Iguodala in the process. Also, from a value perspective, this line is compelling because the over is a -125 favorite, while just a little bit of analysis tips the under as the more likely scenario.
- Carlos Boozer UNDER 19.5 points (-125; over: -105): The Bizarro Melo. We're looking to ride the hot hand of Carmelo Anthony above, and we're betting against Boozer in this cold streak with a nice, solid favorite. This is not the way to start a contract year (still sure you don't want to opt out, Carlos?)- we're no more than a handful of games from Boozer having officially cost himself millions of free-agent dollars. Through three games, he's shooting a putrid 31% from the floor (13-for-42) en route to 13 points per game, and with the Jazz not looking like an improved road team from last year, tonight's trip to Dallas, with a pair of good defenders (Shawn Marion and James Singleton) waiting, isn't likely to be Boozer's 2009-10 coming-out party. The way Carlos Boozer's started this season, it is entirely possible that there is really something wrong with him.
- Jason Kidd UNDER 9.5 assists (+100; over: -130):
STAYAWAY
- Paul Pierce- 30.5 points + rebounds + assists (over: -115; under: -115)
- Dwight Howard- 13.5 rebounds (over: -140; under: +110): Against a team with at least one front court, I like the under. I mean, grabbing 14 rebounds in an NBA game is hard, even for Dwight Howard! However, I can it happening against Detroit's less-than-stellar front line (Charlie V., Kwame Brown, and elderly Ben Wallace). I won't be betting on it, but I certainly don't want to bet against it.
- Gilbert Arenas- 6.5 1st quarter points (over: -115 on PlayersOnly; under: -115): I'd love the over here if this game was played in DC, but on the road Arenas seems doubly committed to his newfound facilitator role. Agent Zero will also be looking for his Wizards to produce in a strong effort in their first game of the season against a true title contender, and getting his teammates going early is probably the best way to do that. However, with all of that said, Arenas is still among the league's most explosive scorers, and is very capable of hitting this over in just a couple of minutes.
- Steve Nash- 10.5 assists (over: -125; under: -105)
- Luol Deng- 15.5 points (over: -125; under: -105)
- Deron Williams- 30.5 points + assists (over: -115; under: -115):
- Al Horford- 19.5 points + rebounds (over: -115; under: -115): This is a typical Al Horford line that looks (and is) extremely reachable, but is not yet a smart play against good teams with quality bigs. Until Horford shows greater consistency on offense, it's best to only pursue this type of prop against lesser, undersized teams (preferably with the Hawks at home), or to avoid them altogether.
- Brandon Roy- 22.5 points (over: -130; under: +100): As the season progresses, the over on this number, particularly at home, will be a pretty simple call. However, despite hitting for 30+ in each of his last 2, Roy has looked iffy early on, hitting 50% of his shots only once in the season's first four games (12-for-20 in his 42-point outburst against Houston), and shooting just 16-for-51 from the field in the Blazers' other three games. Against a big, athletic team like the Hawks, it's hard to get on board with the over here (especially at -130) when Roy is not shooting well to begin with. Once he's found a groove, this number is a virtual gimme.
OVER
- Carmelo Anthony OVER 29.5 points (-115; under: -115; has since moved to 30.5 on PlayersOnly.com): Potentially a powerful emerging trend. Melo's been the league's best player in the opening week, scoring 30 or more in the each of Denver's three wins (40+ in each of the last two), and shooting phenomenally (54%FG/88%FT/43%3pt) while doing it. Not only is he cashing on J.R. Smith's absence (suspended until November 10) from the lineup, but Carmelo Anthony looks like he's making the leap from "superstar" to "SUPERstar", joining Kobe, LeBron, Dwight Howard and Dwyane Wade (and arguably others). Tonight, Melo and Chauncey Billups lead the Nuggets, who are averaging 115 points into Indiana, where they'll meet a Pacers team that's allowed 116 points in two games, and is not renowned for its defensive prowess. This line (on BetUS and initially at PlayersOnly) priced the likelihood of Carmelo scoring 30+ at 50-50- very odd considering his 37.7 ppg, but a fantastic value for a top 15-guy at the top of his game, with no injuries, taking on a below average team.
- Dwyane Wade OVER 29.5 points (-120; under: -110 on BetUS and +100 on PlayersOnly): A rested D-Wade at home against the reincarnation of Nash's SSOL Suns, who still don't prioritize defense or have a strong defensive presence inside? Book it! If we assume that Wade is good for roughly 1/3 of Miami's points (a healthy, but not excessive number) and the Suns "hold" the Heat to the average of their previous three opponents (Clippers, Warriors and Timberwolves), 107 points (106.7 to be exact), then the number for Wade is somewhere around 35. I would have loved this up to about 31.5, and was thrilled to get it at -120 (by 5pm Eastern, it had moved to -135 on PlayersOnly.com, and I could see it commanding -140 or more). Considering this is about what Wade is likely to average for the season, the fact that he's healthy and rested, and that playing Suns is akin to playing in an All-Star Game, this is a fantastic over bet.
- Kobe Bryant OVER 29.5 points (-115; under: -115): Pau Gasol still hasn't seen the floor in the regular season, Ron Artest is struggling offensively, Lamar Odom's been solid but unspectacular, and the role players have very disappointing. Yeah, Andrew Bynum is playing some fantastic ball, and while there's no reason expect that to stop tonight, this is Kobe's time. While the Lakers wait for Gasol to get healthy and for the role players to find some sort of a groove, Kobe will look to carry this team. 30 is practically a given tonight.
- Kevin Durant OVER 25.5 points (-115; under: -115): OKC has started strong, winning 2 of its first 3 games, and are sure to be tested tonight when the defending champs come to town. Also, this matchup will a clash between two of the NBA's best scorers, as up-and-comer Durant "squares off" (they won't be guarding one another) and all-timer Kobe Bryant exchange shots. Not only should this opportunity give Durant plenty of motivation to play a strong game, the only Laker with both the length and athleticism to guard, Lamar Odom, will have a tough time staying with KD. Expect to see Artest and Kobe on Durant from time to time. A win might be asking too much of the young Thunder, but they should be competitive and Durant will put up some nice offensive numbers.
- Ray Allen OVER 17.5 points (+105; under: -135): The number is right at Ray's season average (17.8), and thus far he's had 2 games over 17.5 and 2 games under, but this number has virtually no downside (you really think Ray Allen's hitting for less than, say, 15?). With the C's healthy and playing extremely well, their early schedule being light on travel, and Allen erasing two tough shooting games to open the season (11-for-33) with a pair of strong performances (15-for-24 in the last 2), the stage is set for a strong performance against an extremely reasonable number. Throw in the fact that this is an over with minimal downside, and it is paying better than even money, and you have an outstanding value proposition.
- Danny Granger OVER 2.5 Made 3-pointers (-150; under: +120): Do you realize that Danny Granger has attempted 22 3-pointers in two games? TWENTY-TWO! That's eleven per game! I'm generally less than enthusiastic about picking a guy to make three 3's in a game, and this isn't my most glowing recommendation for tonight, but it's hard to deny the fact that Granger's going to get ample opportunity to sink three from beyond the arc. The Pacers have attempted 41 3's in two games (27% of their FG attempts), and given the Nuggets' uptempo style, possessions and, consequently, 3-point looks should be relatively easy to come by. While I feel like Danny Granger will probably wind up hitting 3+ 3-pointers against the Nuggets, I found the the price of this wager (-150) a bit steep. Had this been priced in the +100/-115 range, on a night with fewer actionable situations involving blue-chip stars, this prop would be in bold.
- Dirk Nowitzki OVER 25.5 points (-115; under: -115): The Mavs look like they might be a pretty good team, but are pretty light on offense and will have to lean heavily on Nowitzki, at least until Josh Howard returns (and probably afterward as well). Other than Dirk, Jason Terry and Shawn Marion are the team's only real offensive threats, and Marion is more of an opportunistic scorer (offensive rebounds and fast breaks). In addition to being BY FAR the Mavs' best scorer, Dirk is one of the team's only two real options (the only one in the current starting five) in the half court. whether it's Carlos Boozer or Andrei Kirilenko guarding him, Dirk will have a mismatch to exploit. There's also a good chance that this game will be competitive, thus making it unlikely that Dirk's on-court minutes will be limited due to a blowout.
UNDER
- Andre Iguodala UNDER 25.5 points + rebounds (-105; over: -125): Iggy's performances early this season have been all over the map. And since his worst outing came against the Sixers' best opposition to date (8 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists @ Orlando), there's little reason to believe that he'll have much more success against a great defensive team with size and depth the frontcourt, like Boston. The Celtics will probably handle Philly without much trouble, and should be able to contain Iguodala in the process. Also, from a value perspective, this line is compelling because the over is a -125 favorite, while just a little bit of analysis tips the under as the more likely scenario.
- Carlos Boozer UNDER 19.5 points (-125; over: -105): The Bizarro Melo. We're looking to ride the hot hand of Carmelo Anthony above, and we're betting against Boozer in this cold streak with a nice, solid favorite. This is not the way to start a contract year (still sure you don't want to opt out, Carlos?)- we're no more than a handful of games from Boozer having officially cost himself millions of free-agent dollars. Through three games, he's shooting a putrid 31% from the floor (13-for-42) en route to 13 points per game, and with the Jazz not looking like an improved road team from last year, tonight's trip to Dallas, with a pair of good defenders (Shawn Marion and James Singleton) waiting, isn't likely to be Boozer's 2009-10 coming-out party. The way Carlos Boozer's started this season, it is entirely possible that there is really something wrong with him.
- Jason Kidd UNDER 9.5 assists (+100; over: -130):
STAYAWAY
- Paul Pierce- 30.5 points + rebounds + assists (over: -115; under: -115)
- Dwight Howard- 13.5 rebounds (over: -140; under: +110): Against a team with at least one front court, I like the under. I mean, grabbing 14 rebounds in an NBA game is hard, even for Dwight Howard! However, I can it happening against Detroit's less-than-stellar front line (Charlie V., Kwame Brown, and elderly Ben Wallace). I won't be betting on it, but I certainly don't want to bet against it.
- Gilbert Arenas- 6.5 1st quarter points (over: -115 on PlayersOnly; under: -115): I'd love the over here if this game was played in DC, but on the road Arenas seems doubly committed to his newfound facilitator role. Agent Zero will also be looking for his Wizards to produce in a strong effort in their first game of the season against a true title contender, and getting his teammates going early is probably the best way to do that. However, with all of that said, Arenas is still among the league's most explosive scorers, and is very capable of hitting this over in just a couple of minutes.
- Steve Nash- 10.5 assists (over: -125; under: -105)
- Luol Deng- 15.5 points (over: -125; under: -105)
- Deron Williams- 30.5 points + assists (over: -115; under: -115):
- Al Horford- 19.5 points + rebounds (over: -115; under: -115): This is a typical Al Horford line that looks (and is) extremely reachable, but is not yet a smart play against good teams with quality bigs. Until Horford shows greater consistency on offense, it's best to only pursue this type of prop against lesser, undersized teams (preferably with the Hawks at home), or to avoid them altogether.
- Brandon Roy- 22.5 points (over: -130; under: +100): As the season progresses, the over on this number, particularly at home, will be a pretty simple call. However, despite hitting for 30+ in each of his last 2, Roy has looked iffy early on, hitting 50% of his shots only once in the season's first four games (12-for-20 in his 42-point outburst against Houston), and shooting just 16-for-51 from the field in the Blazers' other three games. Against a big, athletic team like the Hawks, it's hard to get on board with the over here (especially at -130) when Roy is not shooting well to begin with. Once he's found a groove, this number is a virtual gimme.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Opening Night!
We're just hours from the first of four games (2 on TNT) that will tip-off the 2009-2010 season. The evening, which at the time of writing (5:25 pm Eastern) is shockingly light on props (at least according to betus.com), will begin in Cleveland, where the Cavs will host the Boston Celtics at 7:30 pm Eastern time. the Cavs look like they will be without Delonte West, whose personal problems (an arrest for riding his motorcycle with 3 loaded guns last month, and a domestic disturbance this past weekend) have severely limited his preparation for the season. The Celtics will take the floor without Glen "Big Baby" Davis, who underwent surgery on his broken right thumb, which he sustained in a fight with one of his old college teammates (Huh? Not sure why, but this wrinkle struck me as odd). Davis will reportedly be out for up to 2 months. As was the case with all of tonight's game's, the prop pickings were very slim here, with only Paul Pierce's points (18.5; a very probable over) and LeBron's points (29.5; right around where he'll end up) on the board.
Celtics-Cavs is the first game in TNT's opening night doubleheader, followed at 10:30 pm Eastern by what should be an entertaining "Battle of L.A.", but could be marred by injuries, as each team will be without at least one key frontcourt contributor. The Lakers' Pau Gasol will be out with an injured hamstring, and the Clippers' rookie stud, Blake Griffin, will be out with a broken left patella that may sideline him for 6 weeks. As if they didn't have enough to contend with on the night that Kobe receives his first post-Shaq ring, the Clippers will likely only receive limited minutes from Marcus Camby (ankle), and could be without Baron Davis (foot), who would be replaced by Sebastian Telfair (yikes!) if he is unable to go. Even without Gasol, the Lakers shouldn't really have too much trouble getting their title defense off to a successful start against the shorthanded Clippers, in a game that I thought would offer a nice variety of props. However, this game also offered just two options, on a pair of Lakers, with Kobe's points (29; a probable over, but I have no clue- we could see Facilitator Kobe) and Ron Artest's points (13.5; see below) as the only options in play.
Elsewhere in the Association, the Washington Wizards, with 2 of their 3 stars (as usual), travel to Dallas to open the season against the Mavericks at 8:30 pm. The Wiz will be without Antawn Jamison, though for the first time in quite a while, they will have a healthy Gilbert Arenas who, in addition to a clean bill of health, enters the new season with a less chatty demeanor and a vow to be an old-school playmaker. From the perspective of a prop bettor, this will have a couple of implications for the Wiz: first, Arenas has all the tools needed to lead the league in assists, and with a defiant commitment to this (which seems very possible, given his personality), could generate great value on any of his assist props; second, Agent Zero's new approach could make his scoring props bit high to start the season (his scoring could go from 29 to 22/23), but could play right into the scoring props of his teammates (well, Caron Butler; he's is the only with prop lines regularly posted), which could wind up being be good values. Like Washington, the Mavs will be without one of their best frontcourt players, as Josh Howard is sidelined (and apparently will be for a while) following offseason ankle surgery. Again, we were given a pair of props to consider, one from each team: Caron Butler's points (21; leaning under, but Arenas could get him going), and Dirk's points + rebounds (33.5; that seems like the right number)
And finally, at 10 pm, the Houston Rockets will take on the NBA's Sexiest Team for the second year running when they meet the Trailblazers at the Rose Garden, in a rematch (in name only) of last year's first round playoff series. For Houston, neither Yao nor Tracy McGrady will be on the floor, leaving the fate of the Rockets in the hands of some talented, but relatively unheralded (for the time-being) role players: Shane Battier, Trevor Ariza, Chuck Hayes, Kyle Lowry, Carl Landry and my picks as the Rockets' breakout stars for the season, Aaron Brooks and Luis Scola. I should point out that these guys are no pushover! It was more or less (swap out Ariza for Artest) this group of guys that battled the Lakers all the way to Game 7 in last year's West Semis. The Blazers, coming off a 54-win season that went a long way toward justifying some massive preseason expectations, enter this season under similar circumstances- a young, supremely gifted team looking to mature and take "The Leap". Given the Rockets' injury woes and Portland's status as no worse than "everyone's second favorite team", it's not shocking that the only prop from this game is Blazer-focused: Brnadon Roy's points + assists (25.5; see below).
Now, let's pick some winners! We've been given a modest menu from which to order, but 2 props very quickly emerged for me as the cream of today's crop on the upside:
Brandon Roy OVER 25.5 points + assists (-125) vs. Houston Rockets
For a variety of reasons, this line makes tons of sense. First, Brandon Roy is a legitimate NBA star, and will probably add a "super" to that title before very long. He's almost always good for a steady 22+ per game (22.6 last season), and averaged more than 5 assists (5.1, but still) per game last season, and there is no reason to expect that we won't equal those numbers again this year. Also, Roy, who's making a habit of meeting or exceeding high expectations, is the type of player that WILL NOT lay an egg on opening night in his own building, especially against the team that pretty handily disposed of his Blazers last spring. Though he is likely to spend a good amount of time on offense battling Battier and Ariza, Roy has an amazing knack for getting into the lane and is absolutely devastating in the pick-and-roll with LaMarcus Aldridge and, fingers crossed, the improved Greg Oden. It's not a stretch to say that he could rack 5-6 assists from these two alone. Also, we know he's not only going to get minutes, he is going to bust his ass every second he's out there. Additionally, I watched this line throughout the day, after opening at -115 for either the over or the under, it evolved into a solid favorite, with the 25.5 figure holding steady, and the over moving to -125 in the afternoon. There is a chance that Roy could obliterate this number.
Ron Artest OVER 13.5 points (-130) vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Under "normal" (yeah, I know Ron Artest is involved!) circumstances, this is frankly where we can expect Ron-Ron's scoring to be all season (12-13 ppg). As the season unfolds, I do not see Artest's scoring props, or any of his props really, as particularly compelling values. However, multiple factors are in play that point to a strong offensive game for Artest tonight. First, despite the fact that Artest was brought to L.A. as nothing higher than a third option on offense (putting him above Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum on the food chain- by means a gimme!), the absence of Pau Gasol ensures that the start to that era will be postponed for at least a couple more days, and that Kobe & Co. might need a little something extra tonight. With Pau out, we know that Ron will definitely see plenty of time on the floor, most (if not all) of it matched up against Al Thonton (a handful on offense, but plays no D) and Craig Smith. Throw in the fact that Artest, a guy who's as emotional as he is talented, along with a jacked-up sellout crowd, will watch his new teammates accept their championship rings before the game, and his desire to endear himself to the new fans and put on a championship-caliber display will be off the charts. For at least one more night, Ron Artest is the #2 option on a great team, and both his effort level and his behavior are sure to be at level befitting that. Also, as was the case with Brandon Roy above, in looking at this line throughout the day, this has the look of a solid favorite- the 13.5 figure has persisted, though it opened at -120 and has since moved to -130. While the target may seem low for Artrest, there is no "too good to be true" element here- you're paying for a good, reachable number.
Celtics-Cavs is the first game in TNT's opening night doubleheader, followed at 10:30 pm Eastern by what should be an entertaining "Battle of L.A.", but could be marred by injuries, as each team will be without at least one key frontcourt contributor. The Lakers' Pau Gasol will be out with an injured hamstring, and the Clippers' rookie stud, Blake Griffin, will be out with a broken left patella that may sideline him for 6 weeks. As if they didn't have enough to contend with on the night that Kobe receives his first post-Shaq ring, the Clippers will likely only receive limited minutes from Marcus Camby (ankle), and could be without Baron Davis (foot), who would be replaced by Sebastian Telfair (yikes!) if he is unable to go. Even without Gasol, the Lakers shouldn't really have too much trouble getting their title defense off to a successful start against the shorthanded Clippers, in a game that I thought would offer a nice variety of props. However, this game also offered just two options, on a pair of Lakers, with Kobe's points (29; a probable over, but I have no clue- we could see Facilitator Kobe) and Ron Artest's points (13.5; see below) as the only options in play.
Elsewhere in the Association, the Washington Wizards, with 2 of their 3 stars (as usual), travel to Dallas to open the season against the Mavericks at 8:30 pm. The Wiz will be without Antawn Jamison, though for the first time in quite a while, they will have a healthy Gilbert Arenas who, in addition to a clean bill of health, enters the new season with a less chatty demeanor and a vow to be an old-school playmaker. From the perspective of a prop bettor, this will have a couple of implications for the Wiz: first, Arenas has all the tools needed to lead the league in assists, and with a defiant commitment to this (which seems very possible, given his personality), could generate great value on any of his assist props; second, Agent Zero's new approach could make his scoring props bit high to start the season (his scoring could go from 29 to 22/23), but could play right into the scoring props of his teammates (well, Caron Butler; he's is the only with prop lines regularly posted), which could wind up being be good values. Like Washington, the Mavs will be without one of their best frontcourt players, as Josh Howard is sidelined (and apparently will be for a while) following offseason ankle surgery. Again, we were given a pair of props to consider, one from each team: Caron Butler's points (21; leaning under, but Arenas could get him going), and Dirk's points + rebounds (33.5; that seems like the right number)
And finally, at 10 pm, the Houston Rockets will take on the NBA's Sexiest Team for the second year running when they meet the Trailblazers at the Rose Garden, in a rematch (in name only) of last year's first round playoff series. For Houston, neither Yao nor Tracy McGrady will be on the floor, leaving the fate of the Rockets in the hands of some talented, but relatively unheralded (for the time-being) role players: Shane Battier, Trevor Ariza, Chuck Hayes, Kyle Lowry, Carl Landry and my picks as the Rockets' breakout stars for the season, Aaron Brooks and Luis Scola. I should point out that these guys are no pushover! It was more or less (swap out Ariza for Artest) this group of guys that battled the Lakers all the way to Game 7 in last year's West Semis. The Blazers, coming off a 54-win season that went a long way toward justifying some massive preseason expectations, enter this season under similar circumstances- a young, supremely gifted team looking to mature and take "The Leap". Given the Rockets' injury woes and Portland's status as no worse than "everyone's second favorite team", it's not shocking that the only prop from this game is Blazer-focused: Brnadon Roy's points + assists (25.5; see below).
Now, let's pick some winners! We've been given a modest menu from which to order, but 2 props very quickly emerged for me as the cream of today's crop on the upside:
Brandon Roy OVER 25.5 points + assists (-125) vs. Houston Rockets
For a variety of reasons, this line makes tons of sense. First, Brandon Roy is a legitimate NBA star, and will probably add a "super" to that title before very long. He's almost always good for a steady 22+ per game (22.6 last season), and averaged more than 5 assists (5.1, but still) per game last season, and there is no reason to expect that we won't equal those numbers again this year. Also, Roy, who's making a habit of meeting or exceeding high expectations, is the type of player that WILL NOT lay an egg on opening night in his own building, especially against the team that pretty handily disposed of his Blazers last spring. Though he is likely to spend a good amount of time on offense battling Battier and Ariza, Roy has an amazing knack for getting into the lane and is absolutely devastating in the pick-and-roll with LaMarcus Aldridge and, fingers crossed, the improved Greg Oden. It's not a stretch to say that he could rack 5-6 assists from these two alone. Also, we know he's not only going to get minutes, he is going to bust his ass every second he's out there. Additionally, I watched this line throughout the day, after opening at -115 for either the over or the under, it evolved into a solid favorite, with the 25.5 figure holding steady, and the over moving to -125 in the afternoon. There is a chance that Roy could obliterate this number.
Ron Artest OVER 13.5 points (-130) vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Under "normal" (yeah, I know Ron Artest is involved!) circumstances, this is frankly where we can expect Ron-Ron's scoring to be all season (12-13 ppg). As the season unfolds, I do not see Artest's scoring props, or any of his props really, as particularly compelling values. However, multiple factors are in play that point to a strong offensive game for Artest tonight. First, despite the fact that Artest was brought to L.A. as nothing higher than a third option on offense (putting him above Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum on the food chain- by means a gimme!), the absence of Pau Gasol ensures that the start to that era will be postponed for at least a couple more days, and that Kobe & Co. might need a little something extra tonight. With Pau out, we know that Ron will definitely see plenty of time on the floor, most (if not all) of it matched up against Al Thonton (a handful on offense, but plays no D) and Craig Smith. Throw in the fact that Artest, a guy who's as emotional as he is talented, along with a jacked-up sellout crowd, will watch his new teammates accept their championship rings before the game, and his desire to endear himself to the new fans and put on a championship-caliber display will be off the charts. For at least one more night, Ron Artest is the #2 option on a great team, and both his effort level and his behavior are sure to be at level befitting that. Also, as was the case with Brandon Roy above, in looking at this line throughout the day, this has the look of a solid favorite- the 13.5 figure has persisted, though it opened at -120 and has since moved to -130. While the target may seem low for Artrest, there is no "too good to be true" element here- you're paying for a good, reachable number.
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