Opening Night!

We're just hours from the first of four games (2 on TNT) that will tip-off the 2009-2010 season. The evening, which at the time of writing (5:25 pm Eastern) is shockingly light on props (at least according to betus.com), will begin in Cleveland, where the Cavs will host the Boston Celtics at 7:30 pm Eastern time. the Cavs look like they will be without Delonte West, whose personal problems (an arrest for riding his motorcycle with 3 loaded guns last month, and a domestic disturbance this past weekend) have severely limited his preparation for the season. The Celtics will take the floor without Glen "Big Baby" Davis, who underwent surgery on his broken right thumb, which he sustained in a fight with one of his old college teammates (Huh? Not sure why, but this wrinkle struck me as odd). Davis will reportedly be out for up to 2 months. As was the case with all of tonight's game's, the prop pickings were very slim here, with only Paul Pierce's points (18.5; a very probable over) and LeBron's points (29.5; right around where he'll end up) on the board.

Celtics-Cavs is the first game in TNT's opening night doubleheader, followed at 10:30 pm Eastern by what should be an entertaining "Battle of L.A.", but could be marred by injuries, as each team will be without at least one key frontcourt contributor. The Lakers' Pau Gasol will be out with an injured hamstring, and the Clippers' rookie stud, Blake Griffin, will be out with a broken left patella that may sideline him for 6 weeks. As if they didn't have enough to contend with on the night that Kobe receives his first post-Shaq ring, the Clippers will likely only receive limited minutes from Marcus Camby (ankle), and could be without Baron Davis (foot), who would be replaced by Sebastian Telfair (yikes!) if he is unable to go. Even without Gasol, the Lakers shouldn't really have too much trouble getting their title defense off to a successful start against the shorthanded Clippers, in a game that I thought would offer a nice variety of props. However, this game also offered just two options, on a pair of Lakers, with Kobe's points (29; a probable over, but I have no clue- we could see Facilitator Kobe) and Ron Artest's points (13.5; see below) as the only options in play.

Elsewhere in the Association, the Washington Wizards, with 2 of their 3 stars (as usual), travel to Dallas to open the season against the Mavericks at 8:30 pm. The Wiz will be without Antawn Jamison, though for the first time in quite a while, they will have a healthy Gilbert Arenas who, in addition to a clean bill of health, enters the new season with a less chatty demeanor and a vow to be an old-school playmaker. From the perspective of a prop bettor, this will have a couple of implications for the Wiz: first, Arenas has all the tools needed to lead the league in assists, and with a defiant commitment to this (which seems very possible, given his personality), could generate great value on any of his assist props; second, Agent Zero's new approach could make his scoring props bit high to start the season (his scoring could go from 29 to 22/23), but could play right into the scoring props of his teammates (well, Caron Butler; he's is the only with prop lines regularly posted), which could wind up being be good values. Like Washington, the Mavs will be without one of their best frontcourt players, as Josh Howard is sidelined (and apparently will be for a while) following offseason ankle surgery. Again, we were given a pair of props to consider, one from each team: Caron Butler's points (21; leaning under, but Arenas could get him going), and Dirk's points + rebounds (33.5; that seems like the right number)

And finally, at 10 pm, the Houston Rockets will take on the NBA's Sexiest Team for the second year running when they meet the Trailblazers at the Rose Garden, in a rematch (in name only) of last year's first round playoff series. For Houston, neither Yao nor Tracy McGrady will be on the floor, leaving the fate of the Rockets in the hands of some talented, but relatively unheralded (for the time-being) role players: Shane Battier, Trevor Ariza, Chuck Hayes, Kyle Lowry, Carl Landry and my picks as the Rockets' breakout stars for the season, Aaron Brooks and Luis Scola. I should point out that these guys are no pushover! It was more or less (swap out Ariza for Artest) this group of guys that battled the Lakers all the way to Game 7 in last year's West Semis. The Blazers, coming off a 54-win season that went a long way toward justifying some massive preseason expectations, enter this season under similar circumstances- a young, supremely gifted team looking to mature and take "The Leap". Given the Rockets' injury woes and Portland's status as no worse than "everyone's second favorite team", it's not shocking that the only prop from this game is Blazer-focused: Brnadon Roy's points + assists (25.5; see below).


Now, let's pick some winners! We've been given a modest menu from which to order, but 2 props very quickly emerged for me as the cream of today's crop on the upside:


Brandon Roy OVER 25.5 points + assists (-125) vs. Houston Rockets

For a variety of reasons, this line makes tons of sense. First, Brandon Roy is a legitimate NBA star, and will probably add a "super" to that title before very long. He's almost always good for a steady 22+ per game (22.6 last season), and averaged more than 5 assists (5.1, but still) per game last season, and there is no reason to expect that we won't equal those numbers again this year. Also, Roy, who's making a habit of meeting or exceeding high expectations, is the type of player that WILL NOT lay an egg on opening night in his own building, especially against the team that pretty handily disposed of his Blazers last spring. Though he is likely to spend a good amount of time on offense battling Battier and Ariza, Roy has an amazing knack for getting into the lane and is absolutely devastating in the pick-and-roll with LaMarcus Aldridge and, fingers crossed, the improved Greg Oden. It's not a stretch to say that he could rack 5-6 assists from these two alone. Also, we know he's not only going to get minutes, he is going to bust his ass every second he's out there. Additionally, I watched this line throughout the day, after opening at -115 for either the over or the under, it evolved into a solid favorite, with the 25.5 figure holding steady, and the over moving to -125 in the afternoon. There is a chance that Roy could obliterate this number.


Ron Artest OVER 13.5 points (-130) vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Under "normal" (yeah, I know Ron Artest is involved!) circumstances, this is frankly where we can expect Ron-Ron's scoring to be all season (12-13 ppg). As the season unfolds, I do not see Artest's scoring props, or any of his props really, as particularly compelling values. However, multiple factors are in play that point to a strong offensive game for Artest tonight. First, despite the fact that Artest was brought to L.A. as nothing higher than a third option on offense (putting him above Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum on the food chain- by means a gimme!), the absence of Pau Gasol ensures that the start to that era will be postponed for at least a couple more days, and that Kobe & Co. might need a little something extra tonight. With Pau out, we know that Ron will definitely see plenty of time on the floor, most (if not all) of it matched up against Al Thonton (a handful on offense, but plays no D) and Craig Smith. Throw in the fact that Artest, a guy who's as emotional as he is talented, along with a jacked-up sellout crowd, will watch his new teammates accept their championship rings before the game, and his desire to endear himself to the new fans and put on a championship-caliber display will be off the charts. For at least one more night, Ron Artest is the #2 option on a great team, and both his effort level and his behavior are sure to be at level befitting that. Also, as was the case with Brandon Roy above, in looking at this line throughout the day, this has the look of a solid favorite- the 13.5 figure has persisted, though it opened at -120 and has since moved to -130. While the target may seem low for Artrest, there is no "too good to be true" element here- you're paying for a good, reachable number.