Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Opening Night Jitters

We, that certainly could have gone better! Any time you can call attention to yourself and self-importantly lay out a manifesto only to whiff spectacularly on opening night, you gotta go for it, right? I couldn't have done it by myself, however. I'd like to thank Brandon Roy and Ron Artest for that combined 8-for-28 (28.6%) shooting performance. Thanks guys!

Time to get back in the saddle. It's a long season. It's a marathon, not a sprint. One day at a time. Gotta let the game come to me.

OK, the post-game press conference is out of the way, now let's sort through the wreckage. In Portland, the Trailblazers booked their first win of the season, beating the Rockets 96-87 (covering 8.5) in a game that was not nearly as competitive as the final would suggest, despite 26 turnovers (26!) by Portland. The Blazers led by double-digits for virtually the entire game, extending the lead to 20 in the second half, before faltering a bit in the fourth quarter, when the Rockets pulled to within six. With LaMarcus Aldridge in foul trouble all game, the Blazers were led by 23 (9-14, 3-5 on 3s) from Travis Outlaw, 20 points and 5 assists from Roy (more on this in a sec), and 14 (on just 7 shots) from Martell Webster. Greg Oden also deserves some credit for his rebounding (12 boards, 4 offensive) and interior D (5 blocks), with Aldridge only on the floor for half the game and Joel Przybilla fouling out with about seven minutes left in the game. Not a great win for Portland, but a win nonetheless. However, not everybody was thrilled with the Blazers last night...

As you may recall, on a night when Kobe (33 points, topping an O/U of 29) and LeBron (38, v. O/U of 29.5) kicked off their respective seasons at home, I unapologetically cast my superstar vote for Brandon Roy, proclaiming the he would rack up at least 26 points and assists. And it frankly should have worked. Had Brandon Roy, who was an awful 5-for-18 (27.8%) from the field last night, managed to make just one out of every three shots he attempted, this prop would have been a winner. This, along with the fact that, in spite of his rough shooting night, Roy had multiple (3, I believe) attempts that could have pushed his total over. If we look at this single prop in a vacuum, I can say that have no regrets about my selection- I needed Brandon Roy to shoot 33% from the field. Sadly, it didn't happen, but if could effectively bet on Brandon Roy shooting 33% every night, I would, and it would be long before I could quit my day job. The one regret that I do have, however, is that I got cute and didn't go with proven, legendary greatness. As awesome a player as I think Brandon Roy is, I could have applied the exact same criteria to Kobe Bryant and LeBron James (new season, home opener, in Kobe's case the emotion of a ring ceremony and a significantly weaker opponent) and backed one (or two) of the 15 greatest players of all time. Let's move on...

While I was confident in Brandon Roy, I was POSITIVE that Ron Artest would top 13.5 points. Alas, the newest Laker did me no favors either. Although, to be fair, at least Ron-Ron managed to outshoot Brandon Roy by making a whopping three of his ten field goal attempts. In addition to missing seven of his ten shots, Artest was off on four of his five 3-pointers and four of his seven free throw attempts. He played a solid all-around game and like Roy, Artest was not without opportunities to reach that 14-point mark (at least 3 WIDE open 3's come to mind, not mention the missed FTs), he just wound up having a brutal night shooting the ball. However, as was the case with Brandon Roy, this was a legitimate actionable situation. I still believe the premise on which I selected this line was sound. I was also given the opportunity to win, even in spite of Artest's poor shooting, which is really all you can ask for.


The main takeaways from last night's action?

* Don't get cute. There's no bonus for showing the world how freaking smart you are. Don't bypass greatness. The wins are just as sweet when you back Kobe or LeBron. Actually, they are often times more fun, because if you're on board with these guys during one of those games (I had "Kobe over 35.5 points" on the night of "81"), it is a hell of a lot of fun!

* Ideas can be perfectly logical, well thought out and justifiable- and still lose. Sometimes good players miss shots.

No more looking back! Gonna shake off opening night and take a shot at tonight's lines. Stay tuned...

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