Mad Props!

I've heard that in the long run, wagering on the NBA, over/unders in particular, is largely a sucker's bet. Having made several attempts to debunk this theory over an extended period of time, with little to show for it, outside of the occasional hot streak, either in my own picks league-wide or in the form of a too-hot (in some cases, cold)-to-ignore team (remember the 2-3 week runs the Seven Seconds or Less Suns would go on?), that takes on the persona of hot shooter at a craps table- even if you get arrive a bit late, get on the bandwagon and ride it as long as you can. You know the streak's gonna end, possibly very soon, but you're not gonna bet against it, and hopefully you can make a little something before the streak's end. Alas, as is to be expected, these streaks all prove to be self-correcting, making the degree of difficulty for any frequent (compulsive is just such an icky word!) gambler looking to profit from the NBA nearly insurmountable. However, based on my experience of a few months ago, there just might be an overlooked segment of the basketball gaming universe that could prove profitable to the informed, disciplined gambler. The segment I speak of, is propositions (prop) bets. On the heels of a very fun (and profitable) 2-month run in the 2009 NBA postseason, I am dedicating this corner of the Internet to the idea, right or wrong, that well thought out prop wagers can in fact be an ongoing, profitable way to enjoy the NBA. First, a bit of background:

As the playoffs kicked off last spring, I found myself in a familiar spot- having logged HUNDREDS OF HOURS of NBA viewing, knowing exactly which players were good, and why, capable of naming the second unit for most teams, even having strong opinions on numerous local broadcast teams- and still down for the year! Then a funny thing happened as the playoffs got rolling- I found myself with strong, specific opinions on not only how the games would play out, but on whose shoulders it would happen. For instance, I was "bullish on the Bulls" in Round 1 (this is documented in both writing and audio) and LOVED any matchup that the Celtics could throw at Derrick Rose. Before Game 1 in Boston, I had taken the Bulls in every which way possible ($ line, teaser and against the spread, which I believe was +8.5), but still felt like I hadn't thrown enough support behind my breakout pick, Derrick Rose. As much fun as they are (you haven't lived until you've been invested in Tony Scheffler's 3rd catch on a Monday night!), I had never been a huge fan of prop bets as a way to consistently win, but wanting to put my money where my mouth was, and at the same time possibly hedge my numerous bets on his team, I plunked down a few bucks on Rose's "points + assists" exceeding 23.5. As I'm sure you remember, my cash was never really in danger, as Rose torched the C's for 36 and 11 in Chicago's OT win, starting me down what would be quite an interesting postseason path.

As the Bulls and Celtics were winding down, LeBron James and Cavs were preparing to kick off their postseason at home against the Detroit Pistons. Looking at the line ahead of the game, I was (mistakenly) apprehensive about laying 13.5 (if memory serves) points, but knew that there was NO DAMN WAY that LeBron was going to lay an egg in the first game of what was expected to be his coronation, even if it came in a 13-point win. I took a second to think about it, and shuddered at the thought of getting financially and emotionally invested in this game, only to possibly watch LBJ slap the Pistons with 35-10-8 in a 103-90 game. After concluding that this would be a kick-in-balls loss and, being sure (as much as you can be sure in this crazy business) that LeBron would have a monster game (Think back to Magic and MJ and how they would kick off the playoffs leading a top-seeded team?), I hopped on board with the idea that he would rack up more than 42.5 "points + rebounds + assists". The Cavs dominated the game, and their 102-84 win did ultimately cover the 13.5-point spread, but I do recall some mildly dicey 4th quarter garbage-time moments- none of which affected my mood, since LeBron had already retired to the bench, having scored 38 points (you remember that unreal half-court, halftime buzz-beater?), grabbed 8 rebounds and handed out 7 assists.

Despite their reputation as being "suckers' bets", I began to realize that for anyone who's extremely well-informed on NBA statistics and trends associated with teams and players, the daily prop lines are viewed in an entirely different light, analyzed in a manner similar to the way a stock trader might assess shares of a given company relative to alternatives in the market, with some situations represent genuine value and a positive risk-reward scenario (I refer to these as "actionable situations"), while the majority offer no advantage and ought to be avoided. To this point, just as traders and investors in the financial markets are constantly warned against playing "if only...", when looking at the results of bypassed wagers, it is extremely important to assess and analyze results in order to learn as much as possible, while avoiding the temptation to play the result and lament what could have been.

As I mentioned, I was no stranger to prop bets, but had never thought about them as a viable means of consistently betting a sport, but beginning April 18, 2009, and for the remainder of the 2009 NBA postseason, I scaled back my action on game lines and traditional over/unders, and began looking very carefully at each day's individual player prop bets. Over the two months of the postseason, I studied the lines for each day's prop wagers, looking for situations that met certain criteria (see below) for "investment". Between the start of the playoffs and the Lakers' celebration in Orlando in June, I placed just under 50 individual player prop wagers (some were lost due to archiving issues, but you can see the last 38 here), with a success rate in excess of 60% which, as anyone familiar with gaming of any kind will tell you, is absurdly successful. This episode last spring got me thinking- wait a minute! I can pick and choose what part(s) of the game will matter to me. Sometimes you don't want fries with that! I can bet the NBA a la carte! Though this is a small sample, and the maintenance of this kind of success rate is highly unlikely in the long run, particularly with 30 teams (rather than a max of 16 in the postseason) to watch, many of whom are less talented and more inconsistent, I've come to really believe that with a measured and disciplined approach, it is possible to win more often than you lose with prop bets. Whether or not I am right is obviously still to b determined, but I feel like there may be something here...

** NOTE: I knew that an overwhelming majority of my wagers had been "overs", but had not realized that EVERY ONE, win or loss, was an "over". To start this season, I will simplistically be looking for situations in which the OPPOSITE of multiple (at least 2, but the more the better) criteria listed below are present **

The following criteria, referenced above, is instrumental in the selection of a "target player", as well as a prop line. The conditions below tend to be the driving force behind the identification of my "actionable situations":

1) Will your player be on the floor? MAKE SURE HE WILL BE ON THE FLOOR. This, more than any other factor, is the most vital in selection, and can be broken into five parts: First, is the player for whom you're considering an "over" bet ACTUALLY GOOD (This is sometimes black and white, but has a significant, somewhat subjective gray area)? Does he have the confidence of his coach and teammates ("young veterans" tends to work well here)? Does he consistently play big minutes in situations that are suited to his game and to the specific wager under consideration? Second, is he chronically prone to foul trouble? We'll call this the Greg Oden Principle. Now, I am decidedly pro-Oden, and have been suckered in to chasing his "over" lines, which seem artificially low and like "easy money", often times in the ~11.5 range for "points + rebounds", only to kiss my cash goodbye five minutes into the game, following foul #3 for Oden. Third, how big a threat is he to be tossed from the game? We can call this the Rasheed Wallace Corollary to the Greg Oden Principle. As much as it sucks to see Oden making a mid-first quarter trip to the pine, knowing that he won't be back until after halftime, seeing your guy fly off the handle and launch into a full-scale meltdown, earn himself a pair of T's and an escort to the locker room is enough to leave you catatonic (for a couple of minutes- any longer, and maybe you shouldn't be betting so heavily!). Unless you're getting really good value, try to lay off the loose cannons. Fourth, how often does the player in question suffer in-game injuries? Now, we're NOT talking about players that are seemingly always out for 2-4 weeks. I'm talking about guys that regularly get hurt during games, often resulting in the "injury timeout" and the dreaded need to be "helped off the floor" (we'll call this the Vince Carter Special). And finally, how often can the player be accused of "mailing in" games? Wow! Holy "VC's Greatest Hits, Batman! This one's pretty big! Lots of players and, in many cases, teams simply do not show up to play every night. To be fair, virtually every team and player in the Association has "off nights" and "letdown games", and the length of the regular season schedule makes it more difficult to identify trends, given the aforementioned larger pool of teams (with many more bad, inconsistent teams) from which to choose, and the full slate of 82 regular season games (rather than ~20 in a decent postseason run), in which even great teams will have the occasional dud (think about a strong Western team capping an 8-game trip in Milwaukee in early-March). With that said, there are certain teams (the Spurs are the best example) and players (Kobe, LeBron, Wade and Chris Paul head this list) that show up every, single night and will never coast through a game. The absence of this trait occasionally shows up in statistics (wild inconsistency is a red flag here, especially as it relates to "hustle stats", like rebounds), but there's also an element of art combined with the science. There is no substitute for watching as many games as possible to extract as much information as possible about the attitude and psyche of certain players. For instance, how hard does a guy play down by 10 in the 3rd quarter of a meaningless road game? These are the times when some players' effort wanes. Identifying the players whose effort doesn't dwindle with adversity (and those whose effort does), particularly those who seem to actually thrive on these situations (or, conversely, those who come apart at the seams), is a valuable tool in identifying strong, actionable situations.

2) Is this wager "mispriced"? So you've identified the type of player you'd like to back (or oppose). The next things to consider are the two aspects of your prospective wager- the "target figure" and the payout rate. This applies to both the actual number as well as the money line. value in the money line.

3) Are the matchups in your favor? This is fairly obvious, but can be very helpful in determining whether a given wager represents good value or a sucker's bet, but you've gotta get smart on the teams and playing styles. In the case of scoring props, the obvious focus here will be on the defensive matchup your "target player" will be facing, but you should also expand your focus to also include: strength of the opposing team's defense, "your" player's own defensive assignment (How much energy will he be expending on D? How likely is he to get into foul trouble?), and issues pertaining to playing style, both in terms of the actual style of play, as well as the likelihood of either team to control the tempo/pace/style of the game. If you're able to identify a talented guy who promises to get plenty of minutes and will be guarding an offensive "non-factor" in a game that will played in "his style", you are probably looking at an actionable situation. Additionally, and obviously, it helps to be highly aware of any injury situations, though in this case I am not referring to the target player himself, but injuries on the player's own team (Injuries to a point guard will affect scorers; conversely, injuries to scorers will adversely impact point guards; also, injuries to big men will impact the team's other big men, and in the case of a shot-blocker, could impact a defender's propensity to gamble on the perimeter) as well as on the opposing team (Is there a lock-down defender or shot-blocker that is banged up or not on the floor?). If you are considering backing someone to grab a certain number of rebounds, it helps if a high percentage shooter is out of action, in favor of a less efficient shooter.

4) Is there a trend in your favor? When considering this, it's important to consider trends unfolding not only on the floor, but with the numbers in the sportsbook as well. Obviously, if a guy is in the midst of a crazy hot (or cold) streak, assuming he's not facing some sort of nightmare matchup, it's generally not a bad idea to try and ride out the trend. Also, pay close attention to whether a player gets promoted or is given a more prominent role in his team's gameplan as a result of a run of great play (conversely, a guy may be demoted or lose minutes and/or touches as a result of a cold streak), as this will likely play out shortly before it is actually reflected in the lines. Also, before laying down any money, be sure to look at the performances of any teammates that play a similar position, as you do not want to ignorantly be on the wrong side of someone earning more minutes/touches at the expense of a teammate. It should be noted, however, that, like any "open market" figure, a persistent trend will definitely have an impact on a player's lines, with an extended run of great play "inflating" a player's numbers and diminishing value, while a legitimately good player enduring a slump (not an injury or irreparable decline, but just an honest-to-goodness slump) could see his lines adjust downward to the point of creating great value.

** NOTE: Rebounding and passing slump far less frequently than shooting does. This applies more to rebounds that it does to assists, since a guy is still relying on other to make shots in order to rack up assists. With regard to rebounding, most games will present no shortage of opportunities to grab some boards, and as much as I hate this exact cliche, "hustle never slumps". As long a guy is relatively healthy, motivated and not facing a nightmare matchup, rebounding props should generally be in play. Turning back to assists, to apply a similar cliche, "selflessness never slumps", and provided a primary ballhander (Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, LeBron, etc) is on the floor for a majority of the game, guys are eventually going to hit some shots, and keep you in the game with assists as well. Please note that this is not an implicit statement that these props will win, but in the event that a good offensive player is having a rough offensive stretch, in the right scenario you should definitely continue to be in the running on your "over" wagers focused on rebounds and assists.

Please note that the criteria below, as well as the opinions expressed on this website going forward reflect the opinions and experiences of the author and should not be interpreted as financial advice or as an advertised "betting system".