* Kevin Durant OVER 31.5 points + rebounds @ Rockets-
* Lou Williams OVER 25.5 points + rebounds + assists v. Nets-
* Tony Parker OVER 22.5 points + assists @ Trailblazers-
* Al Jefferson OVER 23.5 points + rebounds (-115) v. Bucks- Looks to be getting back into game shape and hitting his groove. Milwaukee’s thin front line will help.
* Brandon Jennings OVER 20.5 points (-105) @ Timberwolves- Has come out of the gates like A.I. in 1996, and with Michael Redd out of the lineup, he’s the Bucks’ main offensive option.
* Al Harrington UNDER 22.5 points (-115) v. Cavaliers-
* David Lee UNDER 10.5 rebounds (-105) v. Cavaliers-
* LeBron James OVER 7.5 assists (-130) @ Knicks- His only visit to MSG in the midst of New York’s Summer of 2010 pipe dream- LBJ really has a sense of the moment and is sure to put up a great performance.
* Shaquille O'Neal OVER 12.5 points (-120) @ Knicks
* Chris Kaman UNDER 10 rebounds (-120) @ Warriors- His game is not well-suited to the pace of the Warriors’ game. There will be plenty of rebounds to grab, but fatigue and fouls will limit Kaman’s effectiveness.
* Kobe Bryant OVER 36.5 points + assists (-115) v. Grizzlies- It’s hard to see Kobe scoring less than 30 in any game that does not involve Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. Against Memphis’ D, 40 is definitely in play.
* Zach Randolph OVER 19.5 points (-115) @ Lakers- For all the questions about the Grizzlies sharing the ball, Randolph’s role has never been in question. He’s also been really effective (20/10, 30 pts in two of his last four games)
* Gerald Wallace UNDER 16.5 points (-115) v. Hawks- This looks like the right number, but until the Bobs are less offensively-challenged, it’s hard to justify backing any of their “over” props.
* Brook Lopez OVER 22.5 points + rebounds (-115) @ 76ers- Under normal circumstances he’s good for 16 and 8, but with Devin Harris out and CDR under the weather, Lopez should have a big night in Philly.
* Dwyane Wade UNDER 10 rebounds + assists (-105) v. Nuggets
* Ben Gordon UNDER 27.5 points + assists (-120) @ Magic- This line basically assumes that he’ll score 25 or more points. In general, this is too high number for him, but on the road, against one of the NBA’s top teams whom the Piston upset last week, it starts to look especially unlikely.
* Dwight Howard OVER 12 rebounds (-155) v. Pistons- Fouls limited him to 5 rebounds in 17 minutes in Detroit’s November 3 win, and that’s unlikely to happen again. Against the likes of Ben Wallace, Kwame Brown and Charlie V, 12+ boards shouldn’t be too tall an order.
* Chris Bosh UNDER 26.5 points (-110) @ Hornets- Ahead of his massive Summer ’10 payday, Bosh is off to another great start (remember last season’s opening weeks?), and it’s starting to skew his lines upward. Bosh has never been a consistent 27-point scorer- this line seems ~3 points too high.
* Brandon Roy UNDER 34.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115) v. Spurs- The Blazers haven’t found their comfort zone yet this season, and Roy is a) trying to single-handedly make them contenders and b) still working to settle in with Andre Miller. This number is in play against lesser teams, but a combined 35 on the Spurs is unlikely.
* Greg Oden UNDER 9.5 rebounds (-115) v. Spurs- He’s developing and looks like a significantly better player than he did last year, but he has issues with fouls, and the Spurs have savvy bigs (Duncan, McDyess) that will exploit this. Another Oden prop to watch: O/U 30 minutes on the floor.
* Tim Duncan OVER 14.5 points (-115) @ Trailblazers- Thanks to a deeper roster, Duncan can comfortably take on a smaller offensive role, but this number seems a low. Not crazy (I have him right around 15-16 pts), but just a little bit low.
* Kevin Garnett OVER 21.5 points + rebounds (-115) v. Suns- Even recovering from his knee and in the declining stage of his career, KG’s due to produce a big game soon. A home game against the 4-1 Suns after a day of rest seems like a low-risk proposition. Plus, this line only assumes a 14-8- Garnett hasn't slipped that far.
* Steve Nash UNDER 19.5 points (-120) @ Celtics- Even with the return of SSOL, the Suns are better off when Nash is producing 17-16 stat lines, than when he’s hitting for 22-10. If the Suns play their game and win, he’ll probably be under 20, and if Boston’s D, which did a great job v. Chris Paul, is locked in, Nash will still have a tough time scoring 20.
* Trevor Ariza UNDER 17.5 points (-115) v. Thunder- Not saying that the back-to-back 25 and 33-point games were a total fluke, but it may be early to expect 18 per game from Ariza. This numbers definitely in play, but is not a great value.
* Roy Hibbert UNDER 10.5 rebounds (-130) v. Wizards- He’s definitely developing into a solid big man, but facing a deep Wizards front line (Haywood, Oberto, Blatche and McGee), along with risk of foul trouble with Arenas constantly getting into the paint, the doesn’t seem like a great matchup for Hibbert.
* Gilbert Arenas UNDER 6.5 1st quarter points (-115) @ Pacers- Agent Zero has definitely been in playmaker mode to start all the Wizards’ games, looking to get the other guys involved before calling his own number. There no reason to look for anything different against Indy.
* Carmelo Anthony OVER 6.5 1st quarter points (-120) @ Heat- Not only does Melo look like he’s focused on joining the top tier of NBA superstars, he’ll be trying to keep the Nuggets unbeaten against 2003 Draft classmate D-Wade and his surprising 1-loss Heat. Look for him to be aggressive early and to get off to a fast start.
* Chris Paul OVER 6.5 1st quarter points (+110) v. Raptors- A big win against the Mavs, an underperforming supporting cast, his own hot shooting (63%; 62-for-97) and a home matchup against a weak defensive team with no strong inside presence? CP3 will put his stamp on this on early.
* Monta Ellis UNDER 6.5 1st quarter points (-125) v. Clippers- Should be motivated to face off against former teammate Baron Davis, but the Clippers have some big defenders that will make inside scoring tough. Plus, do we even know where he and Nellie stand? By all accounts, he’s the Warriors’ star, but there’s so much tension there that is hard to get on board with Monta right now.
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