Saturday, November 7, 2009

Enticing Options, But Just One Lock

* Brook Lopez OVER 12.5 points (-125) v. Celtics-


* Tyreke Evans OVER 11 points (-115) @ Jazz- With Kevin Martin's injury woes, first a minor ankle injury and now a hairline fracture of his wrist that could keep him out of the lineup more than six weeks, backcourt minutes and offensive opportunities are going to be abundantly available for the #4 overall pick. Evans is a great athlete and looks like he's NBA-ready. At just 11 points, this one is a (VERY) near-lock, but I want to see him do it at least once. By next week, Tyreke Evans name could regularly be in bold font.

* Luol Deng OVER 17 points (-115) v. Bobcats-

* Raymond Felton OVER 11.5 points (-110) @ Bulls- I remember what I said about the offensively challenged Bobs and my hesitation to back them on scoring props. I also realize that I made those statements just a day ago, but this line is just too attainable (probably an overreaction to the downside) and using the "well, someone has to score for them" theory, looks like a winner. Felton is still the starter, is getting some minutes (~33 per game) and is due for at least a breakout (ok, at least mediocre) game, after a pretty rough start to the season (11.4 ppg, 37% FG). Seriously, other than Gerald Wallace, is there anyone on this team you'd back more to score a dozen points? This is hardly a ringing endorsement, but somone's gotta do it!

* Zach Randolph UNDER 19.5 points (-110) @ Clippers-

* Andrew Bogut OVER 22.5 points + rebounds (-120) v. Knicks-

* Al Harrington UNDER 5.5 1st quarter points @ Bucks-

* Chris Bosh UNDER 10.5 rebounds (-115) @ Mavericks-

* Carmelo Anthony OVER 7.5 1st quarter points (+110) @ Hawks- His lines are starting to get bumped up a little too high. This one has the look of a likely under, and is actually a stayaway at best, but until he cools off for a couple of games, you will not see me picking against Carmelo Anthony. I definitely DO NOT see this as an actionable situation, but wouldn't rule out a 10-12-point opening period from Melo.

* Joe Johnson OVER 1.5 3-pointers made (-150) v. Nuggets-

* Jason Kidd UNDER 17.5 points + assists (-115) v. Raptors-

* Carlos Boozer OVER 10.5 rebounds (-200) v. Kings- Given his start to the season, I'm wanted to just ride the trend here, but it should be noted that as bad as Boozer's been start the season (15.6 ppg, 42% FG), his rebounding numbers have actually been pretty solid (10 rpg, 11+ in 4 of 5 games). Plus, it's interesting to see this aggressive a line (-200) for a guy who's not playing his best, but stealthily not stinking it up either. After his first great game of the season (27-14 in a win v. the Spurs), this could be a continuation of a statistical breakout for Boozer. 13-15 boards at home against Sacramento does not seem crazy at all.

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