The Key? Too Many Locks

Though NBA Props is still in its infancy an has yet to really begin its development, this site is already one of the most enjoyable ventures I have launched to date. In fact, it's quickly becoming apparent to me that NBA Props will become a real labor of love. I never make any misrepresentations about my love of wagering on sports, and prop bets on individual NBA players in particular. Even in these early days, this site has had an effect on not only the way that I wager on the NBA, but on the way I watch the games as well. The reason for this is that, in putting together my thoughts on each posted prop, I put a great deal of pressure on myself to express my ideas in a concise and logical manner, effectively creating the opportunity to "audit" the rationale behind my opinions, hopefully avoiding many of the pitfalls that claim the bankrolls of others who choose this endeavor. This is my stated goal with this website, though I must admit that my discipline has has not been iron-clad in these early days. Thus, I think it's important to get back to basics and reestablish the daily goal for this site. It's time for an honest reassessment of my approach.

Every day on NBA Props, I briefly review developments from the NBA, revisit propositions from the previous day, examine upcoming matchups and lay out the individual player props offered for the evening to come, accompanied with some brief thoughts from me on each. In laying out and discussing the prop lines, I look at not only the target number itself but the "price", or money line of each, and based on criteria laid out in my "manifesto", I formulate an opinion on each line, and make picks (over or under) on all props, and provide an explanation for the thinking behind each, all the while looking to identify all actionable situations, and selecting one (maybe two) in particular that represents the most compelling risk-reward proposition(s). However, in the past week I've taken to declaring three locks each night. Three! You can have great runs picking lines, you can be confident about a handful of lines, and maybe it's my zeal for the start of the NBA season and my love of action, but declaring 3 "locks" a night dilutes the quality of my work and creates the potential pitfall of putting (fake) money to work on all of them. So, beginning with tonight's games, I reinstitute some discipline to NBA Props. One lock per night. Like as many as you want, but just one lock.

Now, back to business. Looking back on last night, the overall results were subpar but not catastrophic, as I was on the mark with three of seven picks (there were originally eight lines, but Tim Duncan's sat out, thus voiding his). Of course, this is just a self-serving way of stating that I missed on four of seven, with the two most dramatic losses both coming at the Garden, where Deron Williams made a mockery of his O/U 12 line for assists, dishing out 16 dimes, while the Knicks' double-double machine (or so I'd hoped), David Lee, never stood the slightest chance of 30 combined points & rebounds, seeing the floor for just 30 minutes in close game where he was 1) not in foul trouble (3), 2) not shooting poorly (5-10 FG) and the Knicks could have used all the help they could get on the glass (outrebounded 53-40). Is a woeful team without a draft pick (ironically, Utah has the Knicks' #1 in the 2010 draft) actually tanking seven games into the season? No wonder D'Antoni's never won anything!


* Kevin Durant OVER 4.5 free throws made (+100) @ Kings- One door, one key, here's the lock! KD is shooting 84.4% from the line, attempts 7.5/game and has yet to make less than 4 from the stripe this season. The Kings allow 25 FTs per game, a number that could prove very conservative considering the fact that they have no one with anyhting close to the length,, height and quickness to trouble Durant. Also, as this is a very winnable game for OKC, some late-game fouling is a very real possibility, and Durant is the man the Thunder will be trying to get it to late. I give this a better than 50% chance of going over by the half.

* Gerald Wallace OVER 12.5 points (-125) v. Magic- I swear, it's like Vegas heard me. Ever since I declared Bobcats' scoring-related overs a no-no, we've seen two that, in terms of number and price, seem too good to pass up (Vegas overshooting on the downside?), Raymond Felton over 11.5 (-110) on 11/7 (he scored 14), and now this one, slightly tipping (-120) Gerald Wallace to hit for at least 13 at home against Orlando.He's is averaging 14.3 ppg and is a regular 18+ point guy on a team that needs all the offense it can get. Also, he's averaging an impressive 7.2 FT attempts per game (making 76%) and has scored just 11 and 12 in his last two, which averages out to just a point under this line, while shooting just 29.6% (8-for-27) from the field. At first blush, this looks like a gimme, and I'm tentatively backing the over here, but it should be noted that he's scored 13+ just twice in six games this year (v. the Knicks & Nets) and had a very time against the Magic last season, averaging 10.3 ppg, 4.5 FTA and shooting just 41.8% from the field. Things could get a bit dicey for him tonight against Mickael Pietrus, with Dwight Howard waiting in the lane, but Wallace is a damn good player who'll get the minutes and attempts to put up 13.

* Gilbert Arenas OVER 5.5 1st quarter points (-115) @ Heat- I like O/U 5.5 so much more than the 6.5 figure we've been seeing. Simply put, three buckets should be good enough to clinch a first quarter over. Applied to a top-flight scorer who gets to the line a lot, like Government Assistance (Is it working? It's gotta be!) and you're looking at a potentially actionable situation. Expect at least four field goal attempts and one trip to the line in the first 12 minutes. Plus, eight days before the Cavs' visit to DC, there may some extra motivation to stick it to Shaq's old team (this is unsubstantiated; if you want to know what I'm talking about, Google it)

* Dwyane Wade OVER 28.5 points (-130) v. Wizards- It's feels weird to say, but the over on Dwyane Wade props have been a money pit thus far! Though six games, D-Wade has scored 29+ just twice, both on the road, though his high of 40 came was against these Wizards (Note: Washington has surrendered some big games to guards- 22 to Jason Richardson on 11/8, 27, on 16 FGA to LeBron, and 25 and 20 to Chris Douglas-Roberts and Raefer Alston on Halloween). Miami's trip to DC was also, incidentally, the only time in his last five games that Wade hit more than 50% of his shots. Despite Wade's "slow" start and recent poor shooting, this over is very attractive, with the opportunity to back a top-5 superstar who's guaranteed minutes (38.2/gm), is getting to the line (12 FTA/gm!), is facing a weak defensive opponent whom he's already lit up this season, and is still averaging 28 ppg despite being "overdue" for a huge game at home.

* Chauncey Billups UNDER 1.5 3-pointers made- After a hot start, in which he made multiple 3's in four of five games (and 3+ three times), Mr. Big Shot has cooled off, making just three of his last thirteen, and one of eight, from beyond the arc. Going on the road in the midst of a mini-(for now) slump, with J.R. Smith returning (less 3's to go around) and a -180 price on the over, there's not too much to get excited about here, unless you're enticed by the +140 price on the under (you really could do worse!)

* Joakim Noah UNDER 11.5 rebounds (-115) v. Nuggets- Sure he's coming off a 21-16 against the Bobcats and has been playing very well to start the season, but just how much money are you willing to risk on Joakim Noah grabbing 12 rebounds? In six games he's grabbed 12+ boards twice, both against relatively weak interior teams, the aforementioned 16 against the Bobcats and 12 v. the Bucks on 11/3. Tonight will probably be a different story with the Nuggets in town- Kenyon Martin, Nene Chris Andersen and Carmelo Anthony all hit the glass very hard, and foul trouble to be a problem against Melo, J.R. Smith (making his season debut) and the three bigs.

* Brandon Roy UNDER 28.5 points + assists (-115) @ Grizzlies- This number's a bit high under normal circumstances, but given the uninspiring way the Blazers, and Roy in particular, have started the season, a show-me approach is the most responsible one here. Roy has only hit this number twice in seven games, both times scoring sufficiently to cover the entire figure, but has failed to do so since Game 3, on Halloween at Houston. For a career 22-5 guy who's just shy of those numbers this season, this over doesn't represent much of a risk-reward play, especially at less than even-money.

* Rudy Gay OVER 5.5 1st quarter points (-115) v. Trailblazers- With AI gone, the most selfish collection of players in the league has one less guy demanding the ball. Of the remaining crew, Rudy Gay has no one looking over his shoulder from the bench, is the team's top scorer (22.3 ppg) and has consistently been getting off to strong starts (5.9 pts/1st quarter; 6+ in five of seven games). Not quite sure how Travis Outlaw or Martell Webster will check him. Also, look for Greg Oden to gift him at least one early trip to the line.

* Trevor Ariza UNDER 1.5 3-pointers made (+260) @ Mavericks- He's averaging 20 a night, is hitting 46% of his 3's and has yet to make less than two 3's in a game. The trend is absolutely there for Ariza, who's playing some fantastic ball, but for the price of this over (-300, yikes!), the fact that he's overdue for a off night and tipping off in Dallas, where the Mavs are doing a solid job defending the 3 (35% opponent 3-pt%; 6.2 made 3's allowed per game, 5.3 allowed per home game). Not crazy about fighting this trend, and not sure anyone should get involved with this line, but from a risk-reward scenario, the under is a much more compelling proposition.

* Shawn Marion UNDER 24.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115) v. Rockets- Vintage "Matrix" would have little trouble with this number, and while number "0" for the Mavs looks a lot like that guy, those days were quite a while ago. Marion's hit a combined 25 three times in six games, but they've all been very close calls, and assists have been at a premium (0.7 apg and three games with 0 assists), effectively making this a "points + rebounds" play. Don't see Shawn Marion as a consistent 17-18/7-8 guy any more.

* Tyreke Evans UNDER 5.5 1st quarter points (+100) v. Thunder- Not long ago, I declared that without another perimeter scorer Brandon Jennings will have to do a 1996 A.I. impression. Well, he's not alone! Gotta make some room on that bandwagon for red-hot Tyreke Evans. As long as Kevin Martin is out of the lineup, he's is a virtual lock to average 20 a night. However, now that Evans is on everyone's radar, and against a pair of strong perimeter defenders like Russell Westbrook and Thabo Sefolosha, not sure how easily he'll get to six in the first 12 minutes.