* Dwyane Wade OVER 9.5 rebounds + assists (-115) v. Cavaliers-
* LeBron James OVER 14.5 rebounds + assists (+105) @ Heat
* Mo Williams UNDER 2.5 made 3-pointers (-130) @ Heat
* Dwyane Wade OVER 9.5 made free throws (+100) v. Cavaliers-
* Jermaine O'Neal OVER 17.5 points + rebounds (-115) v. Cavaliers-
* Steve Nash UNDER 12 assists (-115) @ Lakers-
* Amare Stoudemire UNDER 29.5 points + rebounds @ Lakers
* Kobe Bryant UNDER 8.5 made free throws (-115) v. Suns-
* Ron Artest OVER 10.5 rebounds + assists (-115) v. Suns-
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Packed Schedule- 13 on 11/11
* Chris Kaman OVER 9.5 rebounds (-125) v. Hornets- When healthy (which he is now), he's one of the league's best pure centers (by my estimation, just ten remain, and only Dwight Howard and possibly Andrew Bynum are better), the newly-named Western Conference Player of the Week and a very good rebounder. It's hard to believe that he's only gotten double-digit rebounds twice this year, but given how well he's playing, that number's a great bet to rise to three against the uninspiring Hornets, who really don't have anyone on the roster that can match Kaman physically. If the line doesn't rise to 10, the money line, -125 now, could move to the -140/-150 range.
* Dwight Howard OVER 29.5 points + rebounds (-115) v. Cavaliers- Really a fan of this prop. Orlando's biggest game thus far, as LeBron returns to the scene of last season's disappointing end, accompanied by Orlando's one-time-face of-the-franchise big man. Shaq hasn't exactly been complimentary to Orlando's current incarnation of Superman, but doesn't have nearly the physical tools left to back up his talk when matched up with Howard. Barring foul trouble (the risk of which kept this from being a lock), it's totally reasonable to expect something along the lines of 22-14 from him.
* LeBron James OVER 28.5 points (-120) @ Magic- This is an average to below-average scoring night for LBJ, and likely will be for the better part of the next decade. If you have to bet on this, 30+ is the likelier scenario, but keep a couple of potential risks in mine: first, Shaq clogs up a lot of the middle of the floor, where LeBron operates best; second, more than any other defender in the league, Dwight Howard is on LeBron's mind whenever he's on the floor, which sometimes turns LBJ into a jumpshooter; third, if he's at his all-around best, LeBron could throw up a brilliant 27-12-12, great for the Cavs, bad for the over. Not a huge risk, but I'm just saying...
* Stephen Curry UNDER 9.5 points (-105) @ Pacers- Physically overmatched and as big a defensive liability as there is in the NBA, and not making up for it on offense. His scoring (single digits in the last 4 games), shooting percentage (7-for-23 in the last 3 games) and, consequently, his minutes (75 in the first 2 games, 31 or fewer in every games since) are steadily declining. Until there is any indication that 1) Stephen Curry is a consistent double-digit NBA scorer and 2) he can defend well enough to ensure time on the floor, there's no reason to even consider the over on any of his lines.
* Danny Granger- OVER 2.5 made 3-pointers (-120) v. Warriors- He's averaging a staggering 10.2 3-point ATTEMPTS (51 in 5 games), and he's not even shooting them well (29.4%). He's obviously not easily discouraged. Imagine what'll happen when he actually makes a couple in a row! That, combined with a track meet against the Warriors, has me expecting at least a dozen attempts from Granger, three of which are bound to go in, even at his current 29% clip.
* Carlos Boozer UNDER 11.5 rebounds (-115) @ Celtics- He's been hitting the boards really well as of late (45 in his last three games), but it helps to keep in mind that the last two came against the Kings and the Knicks. Facing the Celtics, who have KG, Rasheed Wallace, Kendrick Perkins and Paul Pierce healthy and averaging a combined 23+ rebounds per game, and have only allowed 12 rebounds twice this season (Gerald Wallace, mostly in garbage time, and Josh Boone). With Boston's defensive intensity and length in frontcourt, this will almost certainly be Boozer's toughest game thus far. Don't see him extending his strong run.
* Raymond Felton UNDER 21.5 points + assists (-115) @ Pistons- Not to be an ass about it, but how dumb does Vegas think we are? Where did this number come from? It's too high, plain and simple. Sure, he's topped this number in each of his last two, but Felton's combined season averages are sub-18 (12.4 ppg, 5.4 apg) and, simply put, he's just not a good enough player to hit this figure on a nightly basis (yeah, I'm fighting a trend, but this one deserves to be fought). Additionally, Felton doesn't have a favorable matchup against which to top his regular season average by 20%, facing off against the much stronger Pistons' PGs Rodney Stuckey and Will Bynum.
* Brandon Roy UNDER 21.5 points (-105) @ Timberwolves-
* Al Jefferson OVER 4.5 1st quarter points (-105) v. Trailblazers- Big Al hasn't hit his stride yet, but he's really starting to look comfortable in the post again, and should have every opportunity to get off to a strong start against the Blazers and foul-prone Greg Oden. At 1-7 and having dropped six in a row, the Wolves REALLY need a win, and they should be looking to ride their best (by far) player to get it. Jefferson's low post footwork (second best in the game, behind Duncan), his collection of fakes and post moves and Oden proclivity for biting on pump-fakes should give him every opportunity put up 5 in the first.
* Richard Jefferson UNDER 5.5 1st quarter points (-125) v. Mavericks-
* Amare Stoudemire UNDER 21.5 points (-115) v. Hornets- I fought this trend when the Suns visited Philly- not again! Amare is absolutely not the same player as he has been in years past, and he's slipped on Nash's list of favorite targets, falling to third on the Suns' list of option on offense. Amare's scored 22+ in just two of eight games this season, and until he regains his form and shows that he's a legitimate 20-point scorer again, there's not much sense in backing the over on any of scoring-related props.
* Chris Paul over 10.5 assists (-135) @ Suns- This one's not overly complicated. 10.5 isn't an outlandish line for Chris Paul in an ordinary game, so you gotta love his assist prospects any time he gets to play a SSOL game against Nash & Co. Coming off a strong, blowout win over the Clippers in L.A., and considering the Suns' disdain for defense, CP3's disappointing Hornets could be starting to put together a decent run.
And the remainder of tonight's prop lines:
* Derrick Rose UNDER 26.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115)
* Hedo Turkoglu UNDER 16.5 points (-105) v. Bulls
* Joe Johnson OVER 1.5 made 3-pointers (-105) @ Knicks
* Al Harrington UNDER 20.5 points (-115) v. Hawks
* Andre Iguodala OVER 19.5 points (-105) @ Nets
* Paul Pierce UNDER 1.5 made 3-pointers (-125) v. Jazz
* Ben Gordon UNDER 5.5 1st quarter points (+120) v. Bobcats
* Carmelo Anthony UNDER 9.5 made free throws (-125) @ Bucks
* Brandon Jennings UNDER 1.5 made 3-pointers (+120) v. Nuggets
* OJ Mayo OVER 4.5 1st quarter points (-115) @ Rockets
* Aaron Brooks UNDER 2.5 made 3-pointers (-105) v. Grizzlies
* Jason Kidd UNDER 22.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115) @ Spurs
* Kevin Durant UNDER 37.5 points + rebounds + assists (-105) @ Clippers
* Dwight Howard OVER 29.5 points + rebounds (-115) v. Cavaliers- Really a fan of this prop. Orlando's biggest game thus far, as LeBron returns to the scene of last season's disappointing end, accompanied by Orlando's one-time-face of-the-franchise big man. Shaq hasn't exactly been complimentary to Orlando's current incarnation of Superman, but doesn't have nearly the physical tools left to back up his talk when matched up with Howard. Barring foul trouble (the risk of which kept this from being a lock), it's totally reasonable to expect something along the lines of 22-14 from him.
* LeBron James OVER 28.5 points (-120) @ Magic- This is an average to below-average scoring night for LBJ, and likely will be for the better part of the next decade. If you have to bet on this, 30+ is the likelier scenario, but keep a couple of potential risks in mine: first, Shaq clogs up a lot of the middle of the floor, where LeBron operates best; second, more than any other defender in the league, Dwight Howard is on LeBron's mind whenever he's on the floor, which sometimes turns LBJ into a jumpshooter; third, if he's at his all-around best, LeBron could throw up a brilliant 27-12-12, great for the Cavs, bad for the over. Not a huge risk, but I'm just saying...
* Stephen Curry UNDER 9.5 points (-105) @ Pacers- Physically overmatched and as big a defensive liability as there is in the NBA, and not making up for it on offense. His scoring (single digits in the last 4 games), shooting percentage (7-for-23 in the last 3 games) and, consequently, his minutes (75 in the first 2 games, 31 or fewer in every games since) are steadily declining. Until there is any indication that 1) Stephen Curry is a consistent double-digit NBA scorer and 2) he can defend well enough to ensure time on the floor, there's no reason to even consider the over on any of his lines.
* Danny Granger- OVER 2.5 made 3-pointers (-120) v. Warriors- He's averaging a staggering 10.2 3-point ATTEMPTS (51 in 5 games), and he's not even shooting them well (29.4%). He's obviously not easily discouraged. Imagine what'll happen when he actually makes a couple in a row! That, combined with a track meet against the Warriors, has me expecting at least a dozen attempts from Granger, three of which are bound to go in, even at his current 29% clip.
* Carlos Boozer UNDER 11.5 rebounds (-115) @ Celtics- He's been hitting the boards really well as of late (45 in his last three games), but it helps to keep in mind that the last two came against the Kings and the Knicks. Facing the Celtics, who have KG, Rasheed Wallace, Kendrick Perkins and Paul Pierce healthy and averaging a combined 23+ rebounds per game, and have only allowed 12 rebounds twice this season (Gerald Wallace, mostly in garbage time, and Josh Boone). With Boston's defensive intensity and length in frontcourt, this will almost certainly be Boozer's toughest game thus far. Don't see him extending his strong run.
* Raymond Felton UNDER 21.5 points + assists (-115) @ Pistons- Not to be an ass about it, but how dumb does Vegas think we are? Where did this number come from? It's too high, plain and simple. Sure, he's topped this number in each of his last two, but Felton's combined season averages are sub-18 (12.4 ppg, 5.4 apg) and, simply put, he's just not a good enough player to hit this figure on a nightly basis (yeah, I'm fighting a trend, but this one deserves to be fought). Additionally, Felton doesn't have a favorable matchup against which to top his regular season average by 20%, facing off against the much stronger Pistons' PGs Rodney Stuckey and Will Bynum.
* Brandon Roy UNDER 21.5 points (-105) @ Timberwolves-
* Al Jefferson OVER 4.5 1st quarter points (-105) v. Trailblazers- Big Al hasn't hit his stride yet, but he's really starting to look comfortable in the post again, and should have every opportunity to get off to a strong start against the Blazers and foul-prone Greg Oden. At 1-7 and having dropped six in a row, the Wolves REALLY need a win, and they should be looking to ride their best (by far) player to get it. Jefferson's low post footwork (second best in the game, behind Duncan), his collection of fakes and post moves and Oden proclivity for biting on pump-fakes should give him every opportunity put up 5 in the first.
* Richard Jefferson UNDER 5.5 1st quarter points (-125) v. Mavericks-
* Amare Stoudemire UNDER 21.5 points (-115) v. Hornets- I fought this trend when the Suns visited Philly- not again! Amare is absolutely not the same player as he has been in years past, and he's slipped on Nash's list of favorite targets, falling to third on the Suns' list of option on offense. Amare's scored 22+ in just two of eight games this season, and until he regains his form and shows that he's a legitimate 20-point scorer again, there's not much sense in backing the over on any of scoring-related props.
* Chris Paul over 10.5 assists (-135) @ Suns- This one's not overly complicated. 10.5 isn't an outlandish line for Chris Paul in an ordinary game, so you gotta love his assist prospects any time he gets to play a SSOL game against Nash & Co. Coming off a strong, blowout win over the Clippers in L.A., and considering the Suns' disdain for defense, CP3's disappointing Hornets could be starting to put together a decent run.
And the remainder of tonight's prop lines:
* Derrick Rose UNDER 26.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115)
* Hedo Turkoglu UNDER 16.5 points (-105) v. Bulls
* Joe Johnson OVER 1.5 made 3-pointers (-105) @ Knicks
* Al Harrington UNDER 20.5 points (-115) v. Hawks
* Andre Iguodala OVER 19.5 points (-105) @ Nets
* Paul Pierce UNDER 1.5 made 3-pointers (-125) v. Jazz
* Ben Gordon UNDER 5.5 1st quarter points (+120) v. Bobcats
* Carmelo Anthony UNDER 9.5 made free throws (-125) @ Bucks
* Brandon Jennings UNDER 1.5 made 3-pointers (+120) v. Nuggets
* OJ Mayo OVER 4.5 1st quarter points (-115) @ Rockets
* Aaron Brooks UNDER 2.5 made 3-pointers (-105) v. Grizzlies
* Jason Kidd UNDER 22.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115) @ Spurs
* Kevin Durant UNDER 37.5 points + rebounds + assists (-105) @ Clippers
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
The Key? Too Many Locks
Though NBA Props is still in its infancy an has yet to really begin its development, this site is already one of the most enjoyable ventures I have launched to date. In fact, it's quickly becoming apparent to me that NBA Props will become a real labor of love. I never make any misrepresentations about my love of wagering on sports, and prop bets on individual NBA players in particular. Even in these early days, this site has had an effect on not only the way that I wager on the NBA, but on the way I watch the games as well. The reason for this is that, in putting together my thoughts on each posted prop, I put a great deal of pressure on myself to express my ideas in a concise and logical manner, effectively creating the opportunity to "audit" the rationale behind my opinions, hopefully avoiding many of the pitfalls that claim the bankrolls of others who choose this endeavor. This is my stated goal with this website, though I must admit that my discipline has has not been iron-clad in these early days. Thus, I think it's important to get back to basics and reestablish the daily goal for this site. It's time for an honest reassessment of my approach.
Every day on NBA Props, I briefly review developments from the NBA, revisit propositions from the previous day, examine upcoming matchups and lay out the individual player props offered for the evening to come, accompanied with some brief thoughts from me on each. In laying out and discussing the prop lines, I look at not only the target number itself but the "price", or money line of each, and based on criteria laid out in my "manifesto", I formulate an opinion on each line, and make picks (over or under) on all props, and provide an explanation for the thinking behind each, all the while looking to identify all actionable situations, and selecting one (maybe two) in particular that represents the most compelling risk-reward proposition(s). However, in the past week I've taken to declaring three locks each night. Three! You can have great runs picking lines, you can be confident about a handful of lines, and maybe it's my zeal for the start of the NBA season and my love of action, but declaring 3 "locks" a night dilutes the quality of my work and creates the potential pitfall of putting (fake) money to work on all of them. So, beginning with tonight's games, I reinstitute some discipline to NBA Props. One lock per night. Like as many as you want, but just one lock.
Now, back to business. Looking back on last night, the overall results were subpar but not catastrophic, as I was on the mark with three of seven picks (there were originally eight lines, but Tim Duncan's sat out, thus voiding his). Of course, this is just a self-serving way of stating that I missed on four of seven, with the two most dramatic losses both coming at the Garden, where Deron Williams made a mockery of his O/U 12 line for assists, dishing out 16 dimes, while the Knicks' double-double machine (or so I'd hoped), David Lee, never stood the slightest chance of 30 combined points & rebounds, seeing the floor for just 30 minutes in close game where he was 1) not in foul trouble (3), 2) not shooting poorly (5-10 FG) and the Knicks could have used all the help they could get on the glass (outrebounded 53-40). Is a woeful team without a draft pick (ironically, Utah has the Knicks' #1 in the 2010 draft) actually tanking seven games into the season? No wonder D'Antoni's never won anything!
* Kevin Durant OVER 4.5 free throws made (+100) @ Kings- One door, one key, here's the lock! KD is shooting 84.4% from the line, attempts 7.5/game and has yet to make less than 4 from the stripe this season. The Kings allow 25 FTs per game, a number that could prove very conservative considering the fact that they have no one with anyhting close to the length,, height and quickness to trouble Durant. Also, as this is a very winnable game for OKC, some late-game fouling is a very real possibility, and Durant is the man the Thunder will be trying to get it to late. I give this a better than 50% chance of going over by the half.
* Gerald Wallace OVER 12.5 points (-125) v. Magic- I swear, it's like Vegas heard me. Ever since I declared Bobcats' scoring-related overs a no-no, we've seen two that, in terms of number and price, seem too good to pass up (Vegas overshooting on the downside?), Raymond Felton over 11.5 (-110) on 11/7 (he scored 14), and now this one, slightly tipping (-120) Gerald Wallace to hit for at least 13 at home against Orlando.He's is averaging 14.3 ppg and is a regular 18+ point guy on a team that needs all the offense it can get. Also, he's averaging an impressive 7.2 FT attempts per game (making 76%) and has scored just 11 and 12 in his last two, which averages out to just a point under this line, while shooting just 29.6% (8-for-27) from the field. At first blush, this looks like a gimme, and I'm tentatively backing the over here, but it should be noted that he's scored 13+ just twice in six games this year (v. the Knicks & Nets) and had a very time against the Magic last season, averaging 10.3 ppg, 4.5 FTA and shooting just 41.8% from the field. Things could get a bit dicey for him tonight against Mickael Pietrus, with Dwight Howard waiting in the lane, but Wallace is a damn good player who'll get the minutes and attempts to put up 13.
* Gilbert Arenas OVER 5.5 1st quarter points (-115) @ Heat- I like O/U 5.5 so much more than the 6.5 figure we've been seeing. Simply put, three buckets should be good enough to clinch a first quarter over. Applied to a top-flight scorer who gets to the line a lot, like Government Assistance (Is it working? It's gotta be!) and you're looking at a potentially actionable situation. Expect at least four field goal attempts and one trip to the line in the first 12 minutes. Plus, eight days before the Cavs' visit to DC, there may some extra motivation to stick it to Shaq's old team (this is unsubstantiated; if you want to know what I'm talking about, Google it)
* Dwyane Wade OVER 28.5 points (-130) v. Wizards- It's feels weird to say, but the over on Dwyane Wade props have been a money pit thus far! Though six games, D-Wade has scored 29+ just twice, both on the road, though his high of 40 came was against these Wizards (Note: Washington has surrendered some big games to guards- 22 to Jason Richardson on 11/8, 27, on 16 FGA to LeBron, and 25 and 20 to Chris Douglas-Roberts and Raefer Alston on Halloween). Miami's trip to DC was also, incidentally, the only time in his last five games that Wade hit more than 50% of his shots. Despite Wade's "slow" start and recent poor shooting, this over is very attractive, with the opportunity to back a top-5 superstar who's guaranteed minutes (38.2/gm), is getting to the line (12 FTA/gm!), is facing a weak defensive opponent whom he's already lit up this season, and is still averaging 28 ppg despite being "overdue" for a huge game at home.
* Chauncey Billups UNDER 1.5 3-pointers made- After a hot start, in which he made multiple 3's in four of five games (and 3+ three times), Mr. Big Shot has cooled off, making just three of his last thirteen, and one of eight, from beyond the arc. Going on the road in the midst of a mini-(for now) slump, with J.R. Smith returning (less 3's to go around) and a -180 price on the over, there's not too much to get excited about here, unless you're enticed by the +140 price on the under (you really could do worse!)
* Joakim Noah UNDER 11.5 rebounds (-115) v. Nuggets- Sure he's coming off a 21-16 against the Bobcats and has been playing very well to start the season, but just how much money are you willing to risk on Joakim Noah grabbing 12 rebounds? In six games he's grabbed 12+ boards twice, both against relatively weak interior teams, the aforementioned 16 against the Bobcats and 12 v. the Bucks on 11/3. Tonight will probably be a different story with the Nuggets in town- Kenyon Martin, Nene Chris Andersen and Carmelo Anthony all hit the glass very hard, and foul trouble to be a problem against Melo, J.R. Smith (making his season debut) and the three bigs.
* Brandon Roy UNDER 28.5 points + assists (-115) @ Grizzlies- This number's a bit high under normal circumstances, but given the uninspiring way the Blazers, and Roy in particular, have started the season, a show-me approach is the most responsible one here. Roy has only hit this number twice in seven games, both times scoring sufficiently to cover the entire figure, but has failed to do so since Game 3, on Halloween at Houston. For a career 22-5 guy who's just shy of those numbers this season, this over doesn't represent much of a risk-reward play, especially at less than even-money.
* Rudy Gay OVER 5.5 1st quarter points (-115) v. Trailblazers- With AI gone, the most selfish collection of players in the league has one less guy demanding the ball. Of the remaining crew, Rudy Gay has no one looking over his shoulder from the bench, is the team's top scorer (22.3 ppg) and has consistently been getting off to strong starts (5.9 pts/1st quarter; 6+ in five of seven games). Not quite sure how Travis Outlaw or Martell Webster will check him. Also, look for Greg Oden to gift him at least one early trip to the line.
* Trevor Ariza UNDER 1.5 3-pointers made (+260) @ Mavericks- He's averaging 20 a night, is hitting 46% of his 3's and has yet to make less than two 3's in a game. The trend is absolutely there for Ariza, who's playing some fantastic ball, but for the price of this over (-300, yikes!), the fact that he's overdue for a off night and tipping off in Dallas, where the Mavs are doing a solid job defending the 3 (35% opponent 3-pt%; 6.2 made 3's allowed per game, 5.3 allowed per home game). Not crazy about fighting this trend, and not sure anyone should get involved with this line, but from a risk-reward scenario, the under is a much more compelling proposition.
* Shawn Marion UNDER 24.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115) v. Rockets- Vintage "Matrix" would have little trouble with this number, and while number "0" for the Mavs looks a lot like that guy, those days were quite a while ago. Marion's hit a combined 25 three times in six games, but they've all been very close calls, and assists have been at a premium (0.7 apg and three games with 0 assists), effectively making this a "points + rebounds" play. Don't see Shawn Marion as a consistent 17-18/7-8 guy any more.
* Tyreke Evans UNDER 5.5 1st quarter points (+100) v. Thunder- Not long ago, I declared that without another perimeter scorer Brandon Jennings will have to do a 1996 A.I. impression. Well, he's not alone! Gotta make some room on that bandwagon for red-hot Tyreke Evans. As long as Kevin Martin is out of the lineup, he's is a virtual lock to average 20 a night. However, now that Evans is on everyone's radar, and against a pair of strong perimeter defenders like Russell Westbrook and Thabo Sefolosha, not sure how easily he'll get to six in the first 12 minutes.
Every day on NBA Props, I briefly review developments from the NBA, revisit propositions from the previous day, examine upcoming matchups and lay out the individual player props offered for the evening to come, accompanied with some brief thoughts from me on each. In laying out and discussing the prop lines, I look at not only the target number itself but the "price", or money line of each, and based on criteria laid out in my "manifesto", I formulate an opinion on each line, and make picks (over or under) on all props, and provide an explanation for the thinking behind each, all the while looking to identify all actionable situations, and selecting one (maybe two) in particular that represents the most compelling risk-reward proposition(s). However, in the past week I've taken to declaring three locks each night. Three! You can have great runs picking lines, you can be confident about a handful of lines, and maybe it's my zeal for the start of the NBA season and my love of action, but declaring 3 "locks" a night dilutes the quality of my work and creates the potential pitfall of putting (fake) money to work on all of them. So, beginning with tonight's games, I reinstitute some discipline to NBA Props. One lock per night. Like as many as you want, but just one lock.
Now, back to business. Looking back on last night, the overall results were subpar but not catastrophic, as I was on the mark with three of seven picks (there were originally eight lines, but Tim Duncan's sat out, thus voiding his). Of course, this is just a self-serving way of stating that I missed on four of seven, with the two most dramatic losses both coming at the Garden, where Deron Williams made a mockery of his O/U 12 line for assists, dishing out 16 dimes, while the Knicks' double-double machine (or so I'd hoped), David Lee, never stood the slightest chance of 30 combined points & rebounds, seeing the floor for just 30 minutes in close game where he was 1) not in foul trouble (3), 2) not shooting poorly (5-10 FG) and the Knicks could have used all the help they could get on the glass (outrebounded 53-40). Is a woeful team without a draft pick (ironically, Utah has the Knicks' #1 in the 2010 draft) actually tanking seven games into the season? No wonder D'Antoni's never won anything!
* Kevin Durant OVER 4.5 free throws made (+100) @ Kings- One door, one key, here's the lock! KD is shooting 84.4% from the line, attempts 7.5/game and has yet to make less than 4 from the stripe this season. The Kings allow 25 FTs per game, a number that could prove very conservative considering the fact that they have no one with anyhting close to the length,, height and quickness to trouble Durant. Also, as this is a very winnable game for OKC, some late-game fouling is a very real possibility, and Durant is the man the Thunder will be trying to get it to late. I give this a better than 50% chance of going over by the half.
* Gerald Wallace OVER 12.5 points (-125) v. Magic- I swear, it's like Vegas heard me. Ever since I declared Bobcats' scoring-related overs a no-no, we've seen two that, in terms of number and price, seem too good to pass up (Vegas overshooting on the downside?), Raymond Felton over 11.5 (-110) on 11/7 (he scored 14), and now this one, slightly tipping (-120) Gerald Wallace to hit for at least 13 at home against Orlando.He's is averaging 14.3 ppg and is a regular 18+ point guy on a team that needs all the offense it can get. Also, he's averaging an impressive 7.2 FT attempts per game (making 76%) and has scored just 11 and 12 in his last two, which averages out to just a point under this line, while shooting just 29.6% (8-for-27) from the field. At first blush, this looks like a gimme, and I'm tentatively backing the over here, but it should be noted that he's scored 13+ just twice in six games this year (v. the Knicks & Nets) and had a very time against the Magic last season, averaging 10.3 ppg, 4.5 FTA and shooting just 41.8% from the field. Things could get a bit dicey for him tonight against Mickael Pietrus, with Dwight Howard waiting in the lane, but Wallace is a damn good player who'll get the minutes and attempts to put up 13.
* Gilbert Arenas OVER 5.5 1st quarter points (-115) @ Heat- I like O/U 5.5 so much more than the 6.5 figure we've been seeing. Simply put, three buckets should be good enough to clinch a first quarter over. Applied to a top-flight scorer who gets to the line a lot, like Government Assistance (Is it working? It's gotta be!) and you're looking at a potentially actionable situation. Expect at least four field goal attempts and one trip to the line in the first 12 minutes. Plus, eight days before the Cavs' visit to DC, there may some extra motivation to stick it to Shaq's old team (this is unsubstantiated; if you want to know what I'm talking about, Google it)
* Dwyane Wade OVER 28.5 points (-130) v. Wizards- It's feels weird to say, but the over on Dwyane Wade props have been a money pit thus far! Though six games, D-Wade has scored 29+ just twice, both on the road, though his high of 40 came was against these Wizards (Note: Washington has surrendered some big games to guards- 22 to Jason Richardson on 11/8, 27, on 16 FGA to LeBron, and 25 and 20 to Chris Douglas-Roberts and Raefer Alston on Halloween). Miami's trip to DC was also, incidentally, the only time in his last five games that Wade hit more than 50% of his shots. Despite Wade's "slow" start and recent poor shooting, this over is very attractive, with the opportunity to back a top-5 superstar who's guaranteed minutes (38.2/gm), is getting to the line (12 FTA/gm!), is facing a weak defensive opponent whom he's already lit up this season, and is still averaging 28 ppg despite being "overdue" for a huge game at home.
* Chauncey Billups UNDER 1.5 3-pointers made- After a hot start, in which he made multiple 3's in four of five games (and 3+ three times), Mr. Big Shot has cooled off, making just three of his last thirteen, and one of eight, from beyond the arc. Going on the road in the midst of a mini-(for now) slump, with J.R. Smith returning (less 3's to go around) and a -180 price on the over, there's not too much to get excited about here, unless you're enticed by the +140 price on the under (you really could do worse!)
* Joakim Noah UNDER 11.5 rebounds (-115) v. Nuggets- Sure he's coming off a 21-16 against the Bobcats and has been playing very well to start the season, but just how much money are you willing to risk on Joakim Noah grabbing 12 rebounds? In six games he's grabbed 12+ boards twice, both against relatively weak interior teams, the aforementioned 16 against the Bobcats and 12 v. the Bucks on 11/3. Tonight will probably be a different story with the Nuggets in town- Kenyon Martin, Nene Chris Andersen and Carmelo Anthony all hit the glass very hard, and foul trouble to be a problem against Melo, J.R. Smith (making his season debut) and the three bigs.
* Brandon Roy UNDER 28.5 points + assists (-115) @ Grizzlies- This number's a bit high under normal circumstances, but given the uninspiring way the Blazers, and Roy in particular, have started the season, a show-me approach is the most responsible one here. Roy has only hit this number twice in seven games, both times scoring sufficiently to cover the entire figure, but has failed to do so since Game 3, on Halloween at Houston. For a career 22-5 guy who's just shy of those numbers this season, this over doesn't represent much of a risk-reward play, especially at less than even-money.
* Rudy Gay OVER 5.5 1st quarter points (-115) v. Trailblazers- With AI gone, the most selfish collection of players in the league has one less guy demanding the ball. Of the remaining crew, Rudy Gay has no one looking over his shoulder from the bench, is the team's top scorer (22.3 ppg) and has consistently been getting off to strong starts (5.9 pts/1st quarter; 6+ in five of seven games). Not quite sure how Travis Outlaw or Martell Webster will check him. Also, look for Greg Oden to gift him at least one early trip to the line.
* Trevor Ariza UNDER 1.5 3-pointers made (+260) @ Mavericks- He's averaging 20 a night, is hitting 46% of his 3's and has yet to make less than two 3's in a game. The trend is absolutely there for Ariza, who's playing some fantastic ball, but for the price of this over (-300, yikes!), the fact that he's overdue for a off night and tipping off in Dallas, where the Mavs are doing a solid job defending the 3 (35% opponent 3-pt%; 6.2 made 3's allowed per game, 5.3 allowed per home game). Not crazy about fighting this trend, and not sure anyone should get involved with this line, but from a risk-reward scenario, the under is a much more compelling proposition.
* Shawn Marion UNDER 24.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115) v. Rockets- Vintage "Matrix" would have little trouble with this number, and while number "0" for the Mavs looks a lot like that guy, those days were quite a while ago. Marion's hit a combined 25 three times in six games, but they've all been very close calls, and assists have been at a premium (0.7 apg and three games with 0 assists), effectively making this a "points + rebounds" play. Don't see Shawn Marion as a consistent 17-18/7-8 guy any more.
* Tyreke Evans UNDER 5.5 1st quarter points (+100) v. Thunder- Not long ago, I declared that without another perimeter scorer Brandon Jennings will have to do a 1996 A.I. impression. Well, he's not alone! Gotta make some room on that bandwagon for red-hot Tyreke Evans. As long as Kevin Martin is out of the lineup, he's is a virtual lock to average 20 a night. However, now that Evans is on everyone's radar, and against a pair of strong perimeter defenders like Russell Westbrook and Thabo Sefolosha, not sure how easily he'll get to six in the first 12 minutes.
Monday, November 9, 2009
Differentiating Between Knee-jerks and Real Trends
* Amare Stoudemire OVER 20.5 points (-115) @ 76ers- Despite playing really well (20-10, 57% FG), Amare hasn't really had a statistical breakout game (think 32 & 15). Now back on good team in the SSOL system with Nash and playing for a max deal, Amare is poised to rip off one of his 3-week, 28-14 runs, and Philly is a good candidate to jumpstart him. In the Sixers' last two games Brook Lopez (22-11) and the Pistons frontcourt (16 on 7-for-12 for Charlie V., 16 boards for Big Ben and seven for Kwame Brown- on just FIVE shots!) have put up very impressive performances. Needing only 21 points for the over, at a reasonable -115 price, Amare is a solid prospect to make the over here.
* Chris Bosh OVER 24.5 points (-120) @ Spurs- Ok, kinda scared, but I'm finally buying in. I've been sucked in by Chris Bosh before, only to get burned, but if I'm going to get all riled up about Carmelo Anthony's possible leap into the top tier, it's it's only fair that I acknowledge CB4's dominant start (28.5-10.8 through 6 games). Rather greeting every strong performance with cynicism, I'm electing to point out that Bosh has hit the over on this number in five of his six games (the other was 21-16 in a win v. the Cavs), he's doing it against good teams (35 v. Orlando, 26 @ Dallas) and on the road (37 @ Memphis, 27 at NOH & Dallas). San Antonio's got the bodies to throw at him (Duncan, McDyess, Blair), but the Spurs have lost two straight (allowed 104.5 per game), giving up 27-14 to an ice-cold Carlos Boozer on Thursday night. The hot streak could run out tonight, but the over is a nicely-priced favorite (-120), with Bosh playing as well as any frontcourt player in the league.
* David Lee OVER 29.5 points + rebounds (+100) v. Jazz- A last second addition to the "locks". He's quietly hit 30+ pts/reb in four of seven, is averaging 19-10 and is scoring very well (17+ in six of seven). Tonight is a great opportunity to put up numbers with the Jazz coming to MSG. Utah is still brutal on the road and has stumbled out of the gate and is playing very un-Sloan-like ball, allowing 104 points and 41 rebounds (11 offensive boards) per game, and allowing huge games to frontcourt guys (16-11 to Kenyon Martin; 21 points to Chris Kaman, 13 boards to Camby; 14-15 to Luis Scola; 40-11 to Dirk- even excluding a 15-13 to Duncan). At an even-money payout, Lee's over looks pretty good.
* Andre Iguodala UNDER 4.5 made free throws (+110) v. Suns- Not getting to the line like he has in the past (5.8 attempts per game; 7.3, 6.2 & 6.4 last 3 yrs), not shooting particularly well when he does get there (75.4% career shooter; 68.6% this year, 10-for-19 in his last three games), and with Phoenix (not a physical team) allowing 23 attempts per game, he'd have to earn three trips to the line- AND make five of six attempts. Not seeing it.
* Deron Williams UNDER 12 assists (-115) @ Knicks- DWill is as good as any PG in the Association, with the possible exception of Nash and CP3 (but that gap is closing!), and is coming off a 15-assist game Saturday against the Kings. However, as well as he's playing right now, DWill is averaging under 10 and has hit 12+ assists just twice in six games- and 12 assists (especially without the aid of a hometown scorekeeper) is a very high number. Throw in the fact that this big a number is priced as a toss-up (-115), and there's not a lot of value here.
* Tim Duncan OVER 10.5 rebounds (-130) v. Raptors- Duncan is still Duncan. He's grabbed double-digit rebounds four times in five games (11+ three times), enters tonight's game (without Tony Parker) on two days' rest, against a perimeter-oriented front line (Bosh, Andrea Bargnani, Hedo Turkoglu). Barring a minutes-limiting blowout, 12-13 boards for Duncan looks like a safe bet.
* Stephen Jackson UNDER 1.5 3-pointers made (+120) v. Timberwolves- He's the best and most consistent of the Warriors, has made multiple 3's in four straight and five of six, and is ordinarily a pretty decent shooter. However, (Ex) Captain Jack has made just four-of-thirteen over the past two games, and has been publicly very unhappy, a fact that didn't matter until his agent chimed in on Don Nelson. Given Nellie's ability lose friends and alienate people, I wouldn't look for Jackson to get too many minutes tonight. Throw in a +120 payout on the under, and we may have an actionable situation tonight.
* Chris Paul OVER 6.5 1st quarter points (+100) @ Clippers- I've inadvertently wound up watching most of the Hornets action early this season, and if my own frustration on behalf of Chris Paul is any indication, the man himself must be ready to strangle someone. On a shaken-up roster without any chemistry, playing for a lame-duck coach that's losing (lost?) the locker room and off to a 2-5, and as one of the best young players in NBA history, CP can't be far from putting this underachieving lot on his back and keep them respectable (for as long he's healthy). As ugly as things are for the Hornets right now, Chris Paul will not mail in any games.
* Chris Bosh OVER 24.5 points (-120) @ Spurs- Ok, kinda scared, but I'm finally buying in. I've been sucked in by Chris Bosh before, only to get burned, but if I'm going to get all riled up about Carmelo Anthony's possible leap into the top tier, it's it's only fair that I acknowledge CB4's dominant start (28.5-10.8 through 6 games). Rather greeting every strong performance with cynicism, I'm electing to point out that Bosh has hit the over on this number in five of his six games (the other was 21-16 in a win v. the Cavs), he's doing it against good teams (35 v. Orlando, 26 @ Dallas) and on the road (37 @ Memphis, 27 at NOH & Dallas). San Antonio's got the bodies to throw at him (Duncan, McDyess, Blair), but the Spurs have lost two straight (allowed 104.5 per game), giving up 27-14 to an ice-cold Carlos Boozer on Thursday night. The hot streak could run out tonight, but the over is a nicely-priced favorite (-120), with Bosh playing as well as any frontcourt player in the league.
* David Lee OVER 29.5 points + rebounds (+100) v. Jazz- A last second addition to the "locks". He's quietly hit 30+ pts/reb in four of seven, is averaging 19-10 and is scoring very well (17+ in six of seven). Tonight is a great opportunity to put up numbers with the Jazz coming to MSG. Utah is still brutal on the road and has stumbled out of the gate and is playing very un-Sloan-like ball, allowing 104 points and 41 rebounds (11 offensive boards) per game, and allowing huge games to frontcourt guys (16-11 to Kenyon Martin; 21 points to Chris Kaman, 13 boards to Camby; 14-15 to Luis Scola; 40-11 to Dirk- even excluding a 15-13 to Duncan). At an even-money payout, Lee's over looks pretty good.
* Andre Iguodala UNDER 4.5 made free throws (+110) v. Suns- Not getting to the line like he has in the past (5.8 attempts per game; 7.3, 6.2 & 6.4 last 3 yrs), not shooting particularly well when he does get there (75.4% career shooter; 68.6% this year, 10-for-19 in his last three games), and with Phoenix (not a physical team) allowing 23 attempts per game, he'd have to earn three trips to the line- AND make five of six attempts. Not seeing it.
* Deron Williams UNDER 12 assists (-115) @ Knicks- DWill is as good as any PG in the Association, with the possible exception of Nash and CP3 (but that gap is closing!), and is coming off a 15-assist game Saturday against the Kings. However, as well as he's playing right now, DWill is averaging under 10 and has hit 12+ assists just twice in six games- and 12 assists (especially without the aid of a hometown scorekeeper) is a very high number. Throw in the fact that this big a number is priced as a toss-up (-115), and there's not a lot of value here.
* Tim Duncan OVER 10.5 rebounds (-130) v. Raptors- Duncan is still Duncan. He's grabbed double-digit rebounds four times in five games (11+ three times), enters tonight's game (without Tony Parker) on two days' rest, against a perimeter-oriented front line (Bosh, Andrea Bargnani, Hedo Turkoglu). Barring a minutes-limiting blowout, 12-13 boards for Duncan looks like a safe bet.
* Stephen Jackson UNDER 1.5 3-pointers made (+120) v. Timberwolves- He's the best and most consistent of the Warriors, has made multiple 3's in four straight and five of six, and is ordinarily a pretty decent shooter. However, (Ex) Captain Jack has made just four-of-thirteen over the past two games, and has been publicly very unhappy, a fact that didn't matter until his agent chimed in on Don Nelson. Given Nellie's ability lose friends and alienate people, I wouldn't look for Jackson to get too many minutes tonight. Throw in a +120 payout on the under, and we may have an actionable situation tonight.
* Chris Paul OVER 6.5 1st quarter points (+100) @ Clippers- I've inadvertently wound up watching most of the Hornets action early this season, and if my own frustration on behalf of Chris Paul is any indication, the man himself must be ready to strangle someone. On a shaken-up roster without any chemistry, playing for a lame-duck coach that's losing (lost?) the locker room and off to a 2-5, and as one of the best young players in NBA history, CP can't be far from putting this underachieving lot on his back and keep them respectable (for as long he's healthy). As ugly as things are for the Hornets right now, Chris Paul will not mail in any games.
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Cowboys-Eagles Counterprogramming Anyone?
* Kobe Bryant OVER 45.5 points + rebounds + assists (-150) v. Hornets- No Pau, no Bynum and matchup against Devin Brown? Can you think of a single reason why he won't drop 40 again? Me either. 50 is in play tonight.
* Dwight Howard UNDER 24.5 points (-115) @ Thunder- Whether or not he hits 25 points, this number is simply too high given Howard's lack of consistency and still-raw offensive game. He's just not a legit 25-a-night guy, and while OKC doesn't have anyone to battle Dwight 1-on-1, but they're long and athletic and can disrupt him inside.
* Stephen Curry UNDER 20.5 points + rebounds + assists (-130) @ Kings- Haven't addressed Curry yet this season. Great college stats and an NBA pedigree (in case you didn't know, his dad is long-time SG Dell Curry), and the fact that, by all accounts, he's fantastic human being have combined to generate a fair amount of hype around Stephen, and the consensus that he's destined for NBA stardom. There is no way! I don't care how "great a young man" he is, an undersized, not-particularly-athletic 2-guard whose reputation was built against inferior college competition? No thanks! Maybe a great guy, but he's going to be an NBA bust.
* Jason Thompson OVER 9.5 rebounds (-125) v. Warriors- Still lacks a refined offensive game, but any time he can stay out of foul trouble, Thompson is a good bet to grab double-digit rebounds. Put up 12-11 in Saturday's upset at Utah, and should be able to put up some nice rebounding numbers at home against Golden State. Unlike most big guys, he's athletic and well-conditioned enough to not be liability against the Warriors, whose style of play creates tons of rebounding chances.
* Jonny Flynn OVER .5 3-pointers made (-185) @ Trailblazers- This line is a bit pricey at -185, but he's connected from long range in four of six games (he had zero attempts in one of the other two), and is shooting 43% from 3-point range and is quickly developing into Minny's first option on the perimeter. In Portland, neither Blake nor Andre Miller will keep him from getting at least two or three clean looks from distance.
* David West OVER 18.5 points (-115) @ Lakers- Other than Chris Paul, the play of the rest of Hornets has been a depressing combination of unimpressive and uninspiring, but someone else has to occasionally score for them, right? Plus, Paul and West are extremely familiar with one another, West has scored 20+ in two of his last three games, and the Lakers are shorthanded in the frontcourt. Plus, assuming he plays at least 32 minutes, a line of 18.5 for David West is more than reasonable.
* Dwight Howard UNDER 24.5 points (-115) @ Thunder- Whether or not he hits 25 points, this number is simply too high given Howard's lack of consistency and still-raw offensive game. He's just not a legit 25-a-night guy, and while OKC doesn't have anyone to battle Dwight 1-on-1, but they're long and athletic and can disrupt him inside.
* Stephen Curry UNDER 20.5 points + rebounds + assists (-130) @ Kings- Haven't addressed Curry yet this season. Great college stats and an NBA pedigree (in case you didn't know, his dad is long-time SG Dell Curry), and the fact that, by all accounts, he's fantastic human being have combined to generate a fair amount of hype around Stephen, and the consensus that he's destined for NBA stardom. There is no way! I don't care how "great a young man" he is, an undersized, not-particularly-athletic 2-guard whose reputation was built against inferior college competition? No thanks! Maybe a great guy, but he's going to be an NBA bust.
* Jason Thompson OVER 9.5 rebounds (-125) v. Warriors- Still lacks a refined offensive game, but any time he can stay out of foul trouble, Thompson is a good bet to grab double-digit rebounds. Put up 12-11 in Saturday's upset at Utah, and should be able to put up some nice rebounding numbers at home against Golden State. Unlike most big guys, he's athletic and well-conditioned enough to not be liability against the Warriors, whose style of play creates tons of rebounding chances.
* Jonny Flynn OVER .5 3-pointers made (-185) @ Trailblazers- This line is a bit pricey at -185, but he's connected from long range in four of six games (he had zero attempts in one of the other two), and is shooting 43% from 3-point range and is quickly developing into Minny's first option on the perimeter. In Portland, neither Blake nor Andre Miller will keep him from getting at least two or three clean looks from distance.
* David West OVER 18.5 points (-115) @ Lakers- Other than Chris Paul, the play of the rest of Hornets has been a depressing combination of unimpressive and uninspiring, but someone else has to occasionally score for them, right? Plus, Paul and West are extremely familiar with one another, West has scored 20+ in two of his last three games, and the Lakers are shorthanded in the frontcourt. Plus, assuming he plays at least 32 minutes, a line of 18.5 for David West is more than reasonable.
Early Sunday- 2 Games, Easy on the Props
Two early games (1:00pm Eastern) taking place this Sunday, with the Suns taking on the Wizards in DC, and the Sixers in Detroit to face the Pistons. I'm actualy pretty interested to watch as much as I can of both these games- Suns-Wizards should be an absolute shootout and loads of fun to watch, especially with Nash and Government Assistance (can we make this nickname catch on?) running the point.
The other early matchup promises less excitement, but Sixers-Pistons is interesting for a couple of reason: first, the Sixers may be better than expected, and I am convinced that Philly is not nearly as good as some may have thought. I'm looking for Detroit to defend its home court. Also, each of these teams features a handful of gifted players looking to develop a rapport with and grow into a strong unit, but they a definitely not without questions:
* Is Andre Iguodala or Lou Williams the Sixers' leader? How good can you really be with either guy as your best player?
* Will Elton Brand ever be a top-flight player again? Should the Sixers be starting Marreese Speights in his place?
* How much do the Pistons miss Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince? Are they better off starting Ben Gordon at the 2? Note: I think Ben Gordon might be better than I ever gave him credit for.
* Is Charlie Villanueva a) mildly overpaid, b) properly overpaid or c) grossly overpaid?
I have seen a couple of unconvincing Sixers games thus far, but have yet to see the Pistons play this season, but have been intrigued by the numbers I've seen in their box scores. I not sure if I'll watch every minute of this game, but I have enough interest in these storylines to tune in.
Now let's turn our attention to the prop bet front. Sadly, with regard to these 1pm games, BetUS failed us, not having a single player prop line posted as of 10 minutes before tip-off. PlayersOnly, however, did give us one option on each of the four teams in action. While none of the lines below struck as particularly enticing, they all speak to situations with these players and teams that are worth monitoring:
* Andre Iguodala OVER 4.5 1st quarter points (-105) @ Pistons- Handles the ball a lot on the wings and in isolation sets, and will be matched up all day against either Ben Gordon or Jonas Jerebko. Should get to the bucket (and the line as well) early and often.
* Ben Gordon OVER 1.5 3-pointers made (-115) v. 76ers-
* Steve Nash UNDER 29.5 points + assists (-115) @ Wizards- With the Suns' style of play, this number is never out of play, but a combined 30 will be tough to hit. 17 and 12 assists is an excellent game for Nash, and that would not be enough. Expect this to be close, but not a fan of the over.
* Gilbert Arenas UNDER 6.5 3-point attempts (-105) v. Suns- Government Assistance (I'm gonna make this happen! It works with his initials and everything!) is still a devastating offensive player, and not shy about taking 3's, but he's looking more committed to getting into the lane and earning trips to the line that jacking up the long ball. Against the Suns, I would be easy to see him falling into shootout mode, but seven threes (that's almost Danny Granger pace) is a bit much. He may get to 5, even 6, but I'm not anticipating Him going beyond that.
Looking ahead to the evening, we have four additional games on the NBA schedule, highlighted by a Kobe-CP3 matchup in L.A. at 9:30 Eastern. I will be back with my thought on those prop lines (c'mon BetUS, work with me!), as well with 1, maybe two highlighted actionable situations.
Until this evening, enjoy the early NBA games! Enjoy the NFL!
The other early matchup promises less excitement, but Sixers-Pistons is interesting for a couple of reason: first, the Sixers may be better than expected, and I am convinced that Philly is not nearly as good as some may have thought. I'm looking for Detroit to defend its home court. Also, each of these teams features a handful of gifted players looking to develop a rapport with and grow into a strong unit, but they a definitely not without questions:
* Is Andre Iguodala or Lou Williams the Sixers' leader? How good can you really be with either guy as your best player?
* Will Elton Brand ever be a top-flight player again? Should the Sixers be starting Marreese Speights in his place?
* How much do the Pistons miss Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince? Are they better off starting Ben Gordon at the 2? Note: I think Ben Gordon might be better than I ever gave him credit for.
* Is Charlie Villanueva a) mildly overpaid, b) properly overpaid or c) grossly overpaid?
I have seen a couple of unconvincing Sixers games thus far, but have yet to see the Pistons play this season, but have been intrigued by the numbers I've seen in their box scores. I not sure if I'll watch every minute of this game, but I have enough interest in these storylines to tune in.
Now let's turn our attention to the prop bet front. Sadly, with regard to these 1pm games, BetUS failed us, not having a single player prop line posted as of 10 minutes before tip-off. PlayersOnly, however, did give us one option on each of the four teams in action. While none of the lines below struck as particularly enticing, they all speak to situations with these players and teams that are worth monitoring:
* Andre Iguodala OVER 4.5 1st quarter points (-105) @ Pistons- Handles the ball a lot on the wings and in isolation sets, and will be matched up all day against either Ben Gordon or Jonas Jerebko. Should get to the bucket (and the line as well) early and often.
* Ben Gordon OVER 1.5 3-pointers made (-115) v. 76ers-
* Steve Nash UNDER 29.5 points + assists (-115) @ Wizards- With the Suns' style of play, this number is never out of play, but a combined 30 will be tough to hit. 17 and 12 assists is an excellent game for Nash, and that would not be enough. Expect this to be close, but not a fan of the over.
* Gilbert Arenas UNDER 6.5 3-point attempts (-105) v. Suns- Government Assistance (I'm gonna make this happen! It works with his initials and everything!) is still a devastating offensive player, and not shy about taking 3's, but he's looking more committed to getting into the lane and earning trips to the line that jacking up the long ball. Against the Suns, I would be easy to see him falling into shootout mode, but seven threes (that's almost Danny Granger pace) is a bit much. He may get to 5, even 6, but I'm not anticipating Him going beyond that.
Looking ahead to the evening, we have four additional games on the NBA schedule, highlighted by a Kobe-CP3 matchup in L.A. at 9:30 Eastern. I will be back with my thought on those prop lines (c'mon BetUS, work with me!), as well with 1, maybe two highlighted actionable situations.
Until this evening, enjoy the early NBA games! Enjoy the NFL!
Saturday, November 7, 2009
Enticing Options, But Just One Lock
* Brook Lopez OVER 12.5 points (-125) v. Celtics-
* Tyreke Evans OVER 11 points (-115) @ Jazz- With Kevin Martin's injury woes, first a minor ankle injury and now a hairline fracture of his wrist that could keep him out of the lineup more than six weeks, backcourt minutes and offensive opportunities are going to be abundantly available for the #4 overall pick. Evans is a great athlete and looks like he's NBA-ready. At just 11 points, this one is a (VERY) near-lock, but I want to see him do it at least once. By next week, Tyreke Evans name could regularly be in bold font.
* Luol Deng OVER 17 points (-115) v. Bobcats-
* Raymond Felton OVER 11.5 points (-110) @ Bulls- I remember what I said about the offensively challenged Bobs and my hesitation to back them on scoring props. I also realize that I made those statements just a day ago, but this line is just too attainable (probably an overreaction to the downside) and using the "well, someone has to score for them" theory, looks like a winner. Felton is still the starter, is getting some minutes (~33 per game) and is due for at least a breakout (ok, at least mediocre) game, after a pretty rough start to the season (11.4 ppg, 37% FG). Seriously, other than Gerald Wallace, is there anyone on this team you'd back more to score a dozen points? This is hardly a ringing endorsement, but somone's gotta do it!
* Zach Randolph UNDER 19.5 points (-110) @ Clippers-
* Andrew Bogut OVER 22.5 points + rebounds (-120) v. Knicks-
* Al Harrington UNDER 5.5 1st quarter points @ Bucks-
* Chris Bosh UNDER 10.5 rebounds (-115) @ Mavericks-
* Carmelo Anthony OVER 7.5 1st quarter points (+110) @ Hawks- His lines are starting to get bumped up a little too high. This one has the look of a likely under, and is actually a stayaway at best, but until he cools off for a couple of games, you will not see me picking against Carmelo Anthony. I definitely DO NOT see this as an actionable situation, but wouldn't rule out a 10-12-point opening period from Melo.
* Joe Johnson OVER 1.5 3-pointers made (-150) v. Nuggets-
* Jason Kidd UNDER 17.5 points + assists (-115) v. Raptors-
* Carlos Boozer OVER 10.5 rebounds (-200) v. Kings- Given his start to the season, I'm wanted to just ride the trend here, but it should be noted that as bad as Boozer's been start the season (15.6 ppg, 42% FG), his rebounding numbers have actually been pretty solid (10 rpg, 11+ in 4 of 5 games). Plus, it's interesting to see this aggressive a line (-200) for a guy who's not playing his best, but stealthily not stinking it up either. After his first great game of the season (27-14 in a win v. the Spurs), this could be a continuation of a statistical breakout for Boozer. 13-15 boards at home against Sacramento does not seem crazy at all.
* Tyreke Evans OVER 11 points (-115) @ Jazz- With Kevin Martin's injury woes, first a minor ankle injury and now a hairline fracture of his wrist that could keep him out of the lineup more than six weeks, backcourt minutes and offensive opportunities are going to be abundantly available for the #4 overall pick. Evans is a great athlete and looks like he's NBA-ready. At just 11 points, this one is a (VERY) near-lock, but I want to see him do it at least once. By next week, Tyreke Evans name could regularly be in bold font.
* Luol Deng OVER 17 points (-115) v. Bobcats-
* Raymond Felton OVER 11.5 points (-110) @ Bulls- I remember what I said about the offensively challenged Bobs and my hesitation to back them on scoring props. I also realize that I made those statements just a day ago, but this line is just too attainable (probably an overreaction to the downside) and using the "well, someone has to score for them" theory, looks like a winner. Felton is still the starter, is getting some minutes (~33 per game) and is due for at least a breakout (ok, at least mediocre) game, after a pretty rough start to the season (11.4 ppg, 37% FG). Seriously, other than Gerald Wallace, is there anyone on this team you'd back more to score a dozen points? This is hardly a ringing endorsement, but somone's gotta do it!
* Zach Randolph UNDER 19.5 points (-110) @ Clippers-
* Andrew Bogut OVER 22.5 points + rebounds (-120) v. Knicks-
* Al Harrington UNDER 5.5 1st quarter points @ Bucks-
* Chris Bosh UNDER 10.5 rebounds (-115) @ Mavericks-
* Carmelo Anthony OVER 7.5 1st quarter points (+110) @ Hawks- His lines are starting to get bumped up a little too high. This one has the look of a likely under, and is actually a stayaway at best, but until he cools off for a couple of games, you will not see me picking against Carmelo Anthony. I definitely DO NOT see this as an actionable situation, but wouldn't rule out a 10-12-point opening period from Melo.
* Joe Johnson OVER 1.5 3-pointers made (-150) v. Nuggets-
* Jason Kidd UNDER 17.5 points + assists (-115) v. Raptors-
* Carlos Boozer OVER 10.5 rebounds (-200) v. Kings- Given his start to the season, I'm wanted to just ride the trend here, but it should be noted that as bad as Boozer's been start the season (15.6 ppg, 42% FG), his rebounding numbers have actually been pretty solid (10 rpg, 11+ in 4 of 5 games). Plus, it's interesting to see this aggressive a line (-200) for a guy who's not playing his best, but stealthily not stinking it up either. After his first great game of the season (27-14 in a win v. the Spurs), this could be a continuation of a statistical breakout for Boozer. 13-15 boards at home against Sacramento does not seem crazy at all.
Friday, November 6, 2009
Looking to KD, Lou and TP on a Jam-Packed Night
* Kevin Durant OVER 31.5 points + rebounds @ Rockets-
* Lou Williams OVER 25.5 points + rebounds + assists v. Nets-
* Tony Parker OVER 22.5 points + assists @ Trailblazers-
* Al Jefferson OVER 23.5 points + rebounds (-115) v. Bucks- Looks to be getting back into game shape and hitting his groove. Milwaukee’s thin front line will help.
* Brandon Jennings OVER 20.5 points (-105) @ Timberwolves- Has come out of the gates like A.I. in 1996, and with Michael Redd out of the lineup, he’s the Bucks’ main offensive option.
* Al Harrington UNDER 22.5 points (-115) v. Cavaliers-
* David Lee UNDER 10.5 rebounds (-105) v. Cavaliers-
* LeBron James OVER 7.5 assists (-130) @ Knicks- His only visit to MSG in the midst of New York’s Summer of 2010 pipe dream- LBJ really has a sense of the moment and is sure to put up a great performance.
* Shaquille O'Neal OVER 12.5 points (-120) @ Knicks
* Chris Kaman UNDER 10 rebounds (-120) @ Warriors- His game is not well-suited to the pace of the Warriors’ game. There will be plenty of rebounds to grab, but fatigue and fouls will limit Kaman’s effectiveness.
* Kobe Bryant OVER 36.5 points + assists (-115) v. Grizzlies- It’s hard to see Kobe scoring less than 30 in any game that does not involve Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. Against Memphis’ D, 40 is definitely in play.
* Zach Randolph OVER 19.5 points (-115) @ Lakers- For all the questions about the Grizzlies sharing the ball, Randolph’s role has never been in question. He’s also been really effective (20/10, 30 pts in two of his last four games)
* Gerald Wallace UNDER 16.5 points (-115) v. Hawks- This looks like the right number, but until the Bobs are less offensively-challenged, it’s hard to justify backing any of their “over” props.
* Brook Lopez OVER 22.5 points + rebounds (-115) @ 76ers- Under normal circumstances he’s good for 16 and 8, but with Devin Harris out and CDR under the weather, Lopez should have a big night in Philly.
* Dwyane Wade UNDER 10 rebounds + assists (-105) v. Nuggets
* Ben Gordon UNDER 27.5 points + assists (-120) @ Magic- This line basically assumes that he’ll score 25 or more points. In general, this is too high number for him, but on the road, against one of the NBA’s top teams whom the Piston upset last week, it starts to look especially unlikely.
* Dwight Howard OVER 12 rebounds (-155) v. Pistons- Fouls limited him to 5 rebounds in 17 minutes in Detroit’s November 3 win, and that’s unlikely to happen again. Against the likes of Ben Wallace, Kwame Brown and Charlie V, 12+ boards shouldn’t be too tall an order.
* Chris Bosh UNDER 26.5 points (-110) @ Hornets- Ahead of his massive Summer ’10 payday, Bosh is off to another great start (remember last season’s opening weeks?), and it’s starting to skew his lines upward. Bosh has never been a consistent 27-point scorer- this line seems ~3 points too high.
* Brandon Roy UNDER 34.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115) v. Spurs- The Blazers haven’t found their comfort zone yet this season, and Roy is a) trying to single-handedly make them contenders and b) still working to settle in with Andre Miller. This number is in play against lesser teams, but a combined 35 on the Spurs is unlikely.
* Greg Oden UNDER 9.5 rebounds (-115) v. Spurs- He’s developing and looks like a significantly better player than he did last year, but he has issues with fouls, and the Spurs have savvy bigs (Duncan, McDyess) that will exploit this. Another Oden prop to watch: O/U 30 minutes on the floor.
* Tim Duncan OVER 14.5 points (-115) @ Trailblazers- Thanks to a deeper roster, Duncan can comfortably take on a smaller offensive role, but this number seems a low. Not crazy (I have him right around 15-16 pts), but just a little bit low.
* Kevin Garnett OVER 21.5 points + rebounds (-115) v. Suns- Even recovering from his knee and in the declining stage of his career, KG’s due to produce a big game soon. A home game against the 4-1 Suns after a day of rest seems like a low-risk proposition. Plus, this line only assumes a 14-8- Garnett hasn't slipped that far.
* Steve Nash UNDER 19.5 points (-120) @ Celtics- Even with the return of SSOL, the Suns are better off when Nash is producing 17-16 stat lines, than when he’s hitting for 22-10. If the Suns play their game and win, he’ll probably be under 20, and if Boston’s D, which did a great job v. Chris Paul, is locked in, Nash will still have a tough time scoring 20.
* Trevor Ariza UNDER 17.5 points (-115) v. Thunder- Not saying that the back-to-back 25 and 33-point games were a total fluke, but it may be early to expect 18 per game from Ariza. This numbers definitely in play, but is not a great value.
* Roy Hibbert UNDER 10.5 rebounds (-130) v. Wizards- He’s definitely developing into a solid big man, but facing a deep Wizards front line (Haywood, Oberto, Blatche and McGee), along with risk of foul trouble with Arenas constantly getting into the paint, the doesn’t seem like a great matchup for Hibbert.
* Gilbert Arenas UNDER 6.5 1st quarter points (-115) @ Pacers- Agent Zero has definitely been in playmaker mode to start all the Wizards’ games, looking to get the other guys involved before calling his own number. There no reason to look for anything different against Indy.
* Carmelo Anthony OVER 6.5 1st quarter points (-120) @ Heat- Not only does Melo look like he’s focused on joining the top tier of NBA superstars, he’ll be trying to keep the Nuggets unbeaten against 2003 Draft classmate D-Wade and his surprising 1-loss Heat. Look for him to be aggressive early and to get off to a fast start.
* Chris Paul OVER 6.5 1st quarter points (+110) v. Raptors- A big win against the Mavs, an underperforming supporting cast, his own hot shooting (63%; 62-for-97) and a home matchup against a weak defensive team with no strong inside presence? CP3 will put his stamp on this on early.
* Monta Ellis UNDER 6.5 1st quarter points (-125) v. Clippers- Should be motivated to face off against former teammate Baron Davis, but the Clippers have some big defenders that will make inside scoring tough. Plus, do we even know where he and Nellie stand? By all accounts, he’s the Warriors’ star, but there’s so much tension there that is hard to get on board with Monta right now.
* Lou Williams OVER 25.5 points + rebounds + assists v. Nets-
* Tony Parker OVER 22.5 points + assists @ Trailblazers-
* Al Jefferson OVER 23.5 points + rebounds (-115) v. Bucks- Looks to be getting back into game shape and hitting his groove. Milwaukee’s thin front line will help.
* Brandon Jennings OVER 20.5 points (-105) @ Timberwolves- Has come out of the gates like A.I. in 1996, and with Michael Redd out of the lineup, he’s the Bucks’ main offensive option.
* Al Harrington UNDER 22.5 points (-115) v. Cavaliers-
* David Lee UNDER 10.5 rebounds (-105) v. Cavaliers-
* LeBron James OVER 7.5 assists (-130) @ Knicks- His only visit to MSG in the midst of New York’s Summer of 2010 pipe dream- LBJ really has a sense of the moment and is sure to put up a great performance.
* Shaquille O'Neal OVER 12.5 points (-120) @ Knicks
* Chris Kaman UNDER 10 rebounds (-120) @ Warriors- His game is not well-suited to the pace of the Warriors’ game. There will be plenty of rebounds to grab, but fatigue and fouls will limit Kaman’s effectiveness.
* Kobe Bryant OVER 36.5 points + assists (-115) v. Grizzlies- It’s hard to see Kobe scoring less than 30 in any game that does not involve Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. Against Memphis’ D, 40 is definitely in play.
* Zach Randolph OVER 19.5 points (-115) @ Lakers- For all the questions about the Grizzlies sharing the ball, Randolph’s role has never been in question. He’s also been really effective (20/10, 30 pts in two of his last four games)
* Gerald Wallace UNDER 16.5 points (-115) v. Hawks- This looks like the right number, but until the Bobs are less offensively-challenged, it’s hard to justify backing any of their “over” props.
* Brook Lopez OVER 22.5 points + rebounds (-115) @ 76ers- Under normal circumstances he’s good for 16 and 8, but with Devin Harris out and CDR under the weather, Lopez should have a big night in Philly.
* Dwyane Wade UNDER 10 rebounds + assists (-105) v. Nuggets
* Ben Gordon UNDER 27.5 points + assists (-120) @ Magic- This line basically assumes that he’ll score 25 or more points. In general, this is too high number for him, but on the road, against one of the NBA’s top teams whom the Piston upset last week, it starts to look especially unlikely.
* Dwight Howard OVER 12 rebounds (-155) v. Pistons- Fouls limited him to 5 rebounds in 17 minutes in Detroit’s November 3 win, and that’s unlikely to happen again. Against the likes of Ben Wallace, Kwame Brown and Charlie V, 12+ boards shouldn’t be too tall an order.
* Chris Bosh UNDER 26.5 points (-110) @ Hornets- Ahead of his massive Summer ’10 payday, Bosh is off to another great start (remember last season’s opening weeks?), and it’s starting to skew his lines upward. Bosh has never been a consistent 27-point scorer- this line seems ~3 points too high.
* Brandon Roy UNDER 34.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115) v. Spurs- The Blazers haven’t found their comfort zone yet this season, and Roy is a) trying to single-handedly make them contenders and b) still working to settle in with Andre Miller. This number is in play against lesser teams, but a combined 35 on the Spurs is unlikely.
* Greg Oden UNDER 9.5 rebounds (-115) v. Spurs- He’s developing and looks like a significantly better player than he did last year, but he has issues with fouls, and the Spurs have savvy bigs (Duncan, McDyess) that will exploit this. Another Oden prop to watch: O/U 30 minutes on the floor.
* Tim Duncan OVER 14.5 points (-115) @ Trailblazers- Thanks to a deeper roster, Duncan can comfortably take on a smaller offensive role, but this number seems a low. Not crazy (I have him right around 15-16 pts), but just a little bit low.
* Kevin Garnett OVER 21.5 points + rebounds (-115) v. Suns- Even recovering from his knee and in the declining stage of his career, KG’s due to produce a big game soon. A home game against the 4-1 Suns after a day of rest seems like a low-risk proposition. Plus, this line only assumes a 14-8- Garnett hasn't slipped that far.
* Steve Nash UNDER 19.5 points (-120) @ Celtics- Even with the return of SSOL, the Suns are better off when Nash is producing 17-16 stat lines, than when he’s hitting for 22-10. If the Suns play their game and win, he’ll probably be under 20, and if Boston’s D, which did a great job v. Chris Paul, is locked in, Nash will still have a tough time scoring 20.
* Trevor Ariza UNDER 17.5 points (-115) v. Thunder- Not saying that the back-to-back 25 and 33-point games were a total fluke, but it may be early to expect 18 per game from Ariza. This numbers definitely in play, but is not a great value.
* Roy Hibbert UNDER 10.5 rebounds (-130) v. Wizards- He’s definitely developing into a solid big man, but facing a deep Wizards front line (Haywood, Oberto, Blatche and McGee), along with risk of foul trouble with Arenas constantly getting into the paint, the doesn’t seem like a great matchup for Hibbert.
* Gilbert Arenas UNDER 6.5 1st quarter points (-115) @ Pacers- Agent Zero has definitely been in playmaker mode to start all the Wizards’ games, looking to get the other guys involved before calling his own number. There no reason to look for anything different against Indy.
* Carmelo Anthony OVER 6.5 1st quarter points (-120) @ Heat- Not only does Melo look like he’s focused on joining the top tier of NBA superstars, he’ll be trying to keep the Nuggets unbeaten against 2003 Draft classmate D-Wade and his surprising 1-loss Heat. Look for him to be aggressive early and to get off to a fast start.
* Chris Paul OVER 6.5 1st quarter points (+110) v. Raptors- A big win against the Mavs, an underperforming supporting cast, his own hot shooting (63%; 62-for-97) and a home matchup against a weak defensive team with no strong inside presence? CP3 will put his stamp on this on early.
* Monta Ellis UNDER 6.5 1st quarter points (-125) v. Clippers- Should be motivated to face off against former teammate Baron Davis, but the Clippers have some big defenders that will make inside scoring tough. Plus, do we even know where he and Nellie stand? By all accounts, he’s the Warriors’ star, but there’s so much tension there that is hard to get on board with Monta right now.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Unsuccessful, But Undeterred
Derrick Rose OVER 19.5 points + assists (-115) @ Cavaliers:
Tony Parker OVER 4.5 1st quarter points (-130) @ Jazz: Home or away, and regardless of opposition, Parker's always good for at least one trip to the line and one of his floaters in the paint in the first quarter, which means he just has to find singe point somewhere to hit this over. I have tons of confidence that he will- he's too good not to.
And the rest...
Joakim Noah UNDER 9.5 rebounds (-115) @ Cavaliers
LeBron James UNDER 8.5 free throws made (-115) v. Bulls
Shaquille O'Neal OVER 9.5 rebounds + blocks (-115) v. Bulls
Andrei Kirilenko UNDER 8.5 rebounds + assists (-130) v. Spurs
Tim Duncan UNDER 11.5 rebounds (-115) @ Jazz
Deron Williams OVER 1.5 3-pointers made (+115) v. Spurs
Tony Parker OVER 4.5 1st quarter points (-130) @ Jazz: Home or away, and regardless of opposition, Parker's always good for at least one trip to the line and one of his floaters in the paint in the first quarter, which means he just has to find singe point somewhere to hit this over. I have tons of confidence that he will- he's too good not to.
And the rest...
Joakim Noah UNDER 9.5 rebounds (-115) @ Cavaliers
LeBron James UNDER 8.5 free throws made (-115) v. Bulls
Shaquille O'Neal OVER 9.5 rebounds + blocks (-115) v. Bulls
Andrei Kirilenko UNDER 8.5 rebounds + assists (-130) v. Spurs
Tim Duncan UNDER 11.5 rebounds (-115) @ Jazz
Deron Williams OVER 1.5 3-pointers made (+115) v. Spurs
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
We're Goin Streaking!
My top three picks for the night:
Chris Paul OVER 9.5 assists (-130):
Michael Beasley OVER 13.5 points (even):
Corey Brewer UNDER 17.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125):
Those are my top picks, and here we have the rest:
Jose Calderon OVER 17.5 points + assists (-130)
Steve Nash UNDER 2.5 3-pointers made (-125)
Dwight Howard UNDER 20.5 points (+105)
Danny Granger OVER 6.5 1st quarter points (even)
David Lee UNDER 21.5 points (-105)
Ray Allen UNDER 2.5 3-pointer made (-200)
Kobe Bryant OVER 8.5 free throws made (-105)
Shane Battier OVER 9.5 points (-115)
Joe Johnson OVER 31.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125)
Kevin Martin UNDER 2.5 3-pointers made (+135)
Rudy Gay OVER 18.5 points (-130)
Monta Ellis UNDER 5.5 1st quarter points (+115)
Dwyane Wade UNDER 38.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115)
David West OVER 20.5 points (-115)
Shawn Marion UNDER 15.5 points (-105)
Chris Paul OVER 9.5 assists (-130):
Michael Beasley OVER 13.5 points (even):
Corey Brewer UNDER 17.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125):
Those are my top picks, and here we have the rest:
Jose Calderon OVER 17.5 points + assists (-130)
Steve Nash UNDER 2.5 3-pointers made (-125)
Dwight Howard UNDER 20.5 points (+105)
Danny Granger OVER 6.5 1st quarter points (even)
David Lee UNDER 21.5 points (-105)
Ray Allen UNDER 2.5 3-pointer made (-200)
Kobe Bryant OVER 8.5 free throws made (-105)
Shane Battier OVER 9.5 points (-115)
Joe Johnson OVER 31.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125)
Kevin Martin UNDER 2.5 3-pointers made (+135)
Rudy Gay OVER 18.5 points (-130)
Monta Ellis UNDER 5.5 1st quarter points (+115)
Dwyane Wade UNDER 38.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115)
David West OVER 20.5 points (-115)
Shawn Marion UNDER 15.5 points (-105)
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Bettin On Greatness
Starting today, I'll be introducing a format change to NBA Props' daily posts that I think will be better organized and more informative to you
OVER
- Carmelo Anthony OVER 29.5 points (-115; under: -115; has since moved to 30.5 on PlayersOnly.com): Potentially a powerful emerging trend. Melo's been the league's best player in the opening week, scoring 30 or more in the each of Denver's three wins (40+ in each of the last two), and shooting phenomenally (54%FG/88%FT/43%3pt) while doing it. Not only is he cashing on J.R. Smith's absence (suspended until November 10) from the lineup, but Carmelo Anthony looks like he's making the leap from "superstar" to "SUPERstar", joining Kobe, LeBron, Dwight Howard and Dwyane Wade (and arguably others). Tonight, Melo and Chauncey Billups lead the Nuggets, who are averaging 115 points into Indiana, where they'll meet a Pacers team that's allowed 116 points in two games, and is not renowned for its defensive prowess. This line (on BetUS and initially at PlayersOnly) priced the likelihood of Carmelo scoring 30+ at 50-50- very odd considering his 37.7 ppg, but a fantastic value for a top 15-guy at the top of his game, with no injuries, taking on a below average team.
- Dwyane Wade OVER 29.5 points (-120; under: -110 on BetUS and +100 on PlayersOnly): A rested D-Wade at home against the reincarnation of Nash's SSOL Suns, who still don't prioritize defense or have a strong defensive presence inside? Book it! If we assume that Wade is good for roughly 1/3 of Miami's points (a healthy, but not excessive number) and the Suns "hold" the Heat to the average of their previous three opponents (Clippers, Warriors and Timberwolves), 107 points (106.7 to be exact), then the number for Wade is somewhere around 35. I would have loved this up to about 31.5, and was thrilled to get it at -120 (by 5pm Eastern, it had moved to -135 on PlayersOnly.com, and I could see it commanding -140 or more). Considering this is about what Wade is likely to average for the season, the fact that he's healthy and rested, and that playing Suns is akin to playing in an All-Star Game, this is a fantastic over bet.
- Kobe Bryant OVER 29.5 points (-115; under: -115): Pau Gasol still hasn't seen the floor in the regular season, Ron Artest is struggling offensively, Lamar Odom's been solid but unspectacular, and the role players have very disappointing. Yeah, Andrew Bynum is playing some fantastic ball, and while there's no reason expect that to stop tonight, this is Kobe's time. While the Lakers wait for Gasol to get healthy and for the role players to find some sort of a groove, Kobe will look to carry this team. 30 is practically a given tonight.
- Kevin Durant OVER 25.5 points (-115; under: -115): OKC has started strong, winning 2 of its first 3 games, and are sure to be tested tonight when the defending champs come to town. Also, this matchup will a clash between two of the NBA's best scorers, as up-and-comer Durant "squares off" (they won't be guarding one another) and all-timer Kobe Bryant exchange shots. Not only should this opportunity give Durant plenty of motivation to play a strong game, the only Laker with both the length and athleticism to guard, Lamar Odom, will have a tough time staying with KD. Expect to see Artest and Kobe on Durant from time to time. A win might be asking too much of the young Thunder, but they should be competitive and Durant will put up some nice offensive numbers.
- Ray Allen OVER 17.5 points (+105; under: -135): The number is right at Ray's season average (17.8), and thus far he's had 2 games over 17.5 and 2 games under, but this number has virtually no downside (you really think Ray Allen's hitting for less than, say, 15?). With the C's healthy and playing extremely well, their early schedule being light on travel, and Allen erasing two tough shooting games to open the season (11-for-33) with a pair of strong performances (15-for-24 in the last 2), the stage is set for a strong performance against an extremely reasonable number. Throw in the fact that this is an over with minimal downside, and it is paying better than even money, and you have an outstanding value proposition.
- Danny Granger OVER 2.5 Made 3-pointers (-150; under: +120): Do you realize that Danny Granger has attempted 22 3-pointers in two games? TWENTY-TWO! That's eleven per game! I'm generally less than enthusiastic about picking a guy to make three 3's in a game, and this isn't my most glowing recommendation for tonight, but it's hard to deny the fact that Granger's going to get ample opportunity to sink three from beyond the arc. The Pacers have attempted 41 3's in two games (27% of their FG attempts), and given the Nuggets' uptempo style, possessions and, consequently, 3-point looks should be relatively easy to come by. While I feel like Danny Granger will probably wind up hitting 3+ 3-pointers against the Nuggets, I found the the price of this wager (-150) a bit steep. Had this been priced in the +100/-115 range, on a night with fewer actionable situations involving blue-chip stars, this prop would be in bold.
- Dirk Nowitzki OVER 25.5 points (-115; under: -115): The Mavs look like they might be a pretty good team, but are pretty light on offense and will have to lean heavily on Nowitzki, at least until Josh Howard returns (and probably afterward as well). Other than Dirk, Jason Terry and Shawn Marion are the team's only real offensive threats, and Marion is more of an opportunistic scorer (offensive rebounds and fast breaks). In addition to being BY FAR the Mavs' best scorer, Dirk is one of the team's only two real options (the only one in the current starting five) in the half court. whether it's Carlos Boozer or Andrei Kirilenko guarding him, Dirk will have a mismatch to exploit. There's also a good chance that this game will be competitive, thus making it unlikely that Dirk's on-court minutes will be limited due to a blowout.
UNDER
- Andre Iguodala UNDER 25.5 points + rebounds (-105; over: -125): Iggy's performances early this season have been all over the map. And since his worst outing came against the Sixers' best opposition to date (8 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists @ Orlando), there's little reason to believe that he'll have much more success against a great defensive team with size and depth the frontcourt, like Boston. The Celtics will probably handle Philly without much trouble, and should be able to contain Iguodala in the process. Also, from a value perspective, this line is compelling because the over is a -125 favorite, while just a little bit of analysis tips the under as the more likely scenario.
- Carlos Boozer UNDER 19.5 points (-125; over: -105): The Bizarro Melo. We're looking to ride the hot hand of Carmelo Anthony above, and we're betting against Boozer in this cold streak with a nice, solid favorite. This is not the way to start a contract year (still sure you don't want to opt out, Carlos?)- we're no more than a handful of games from Boozer having officially cost himself millions of free-agent dollars. Through three games, he's shooting a putrid 31% from the floor (13-for-42) en route to 13 points per game, and with the Jazz not looking like an improved road team from last year, tonight's trip to Dallas, with a pair of good defenders (Shawn Marion and James Singleton) waiting, isn't likely to be Boozer's 2009-10 coming-out party. The way Carlos Boozer's started this season, it is entirely possible that there is really something wrong with him.
- Jason Kidd UNDER 9.5 assists (+100; over: -130):
STAYAWAY
- Paul Pierce- 30.5 points + rebounds + assists (over: -115; under: -115)
- Dwight Howard- 13.5 rebounds (over: -140; under: +110): Against a team with at least one front court, I like the under. I mean, grabbing 14 rebounds in an NBA game is hard, even for Dwight Howard! However, I can it happening against Detroit's less-than-stellar front line (Charlie V., Kwame Brown, and elderly Ben Wallace). I won't be betting on it, but I certainly don't want to bet against it.
- Gilbert Arenas- 6.5 1st quarter points (over: -115 on PlayersOnly; under: -115): I'd love the over here if this game was played in DC, but on the road Arenas seems doubly committed to his newfound facilitator role. Agent Zero will also be looking for his Wizards to produce in a strong effort in their first game of the season against a true title contender, and getting his teammates going early is probably the best way to do that. However, with all of that said, Arenas is still among the league's most explosive scorers, and is very capable of hitting this over in just a couple of minutes.
- Steve Nash- 10.5 assists (over: -125; under: -105)
- Luol Deng- 15.5 points (over: -125; under: -105)
- Deron Williams- 30.5 points + assists (over: -115; under: -115):
- Al Horford- 19.5 points + rebounds (over: -115; under: -115): This is a typical Al Horford line that looks (and is) extremely reachable, but is not yet a smart play against good teams with quality bigs. Until Horford shows greater consistency on offense, it's best to only pursue this type of prop against lesser, undersized teams (preferably with the Hawks at home), or to avoid them altogether.
- Brandon Roy- 22.5 points (over: -130; under: +100): As the season progresses, the over on this number, particularly at home, will be a pretty simple call. However, despite hitting for 30+ in each of his last 2, Roy has looked iffy early on, hitting 50% of his shots only once in the season's first four games (12-for-20 in his 42-point outburst against Houston), and shooting just 16-for-51 from the field in the Blazers' other three games. Against a big, athletic team like the Hawks, it's hard to get on board with the over here (especially at -130) when Roy is not shooting well to begin with. Once he's found a groove, this number is a virtual gimme.
OVER
- Carmelo Anthony OVER 29.5 points (-115; under: -115; has since moved to 30.5 on PlayersOnly.com): Potentially a powerful emerging trend. Melo's been the league's best player in the opening week, scoring 30 or more in the each of Denver's three wins (40+ in each of the last two), and shooting phenomenally (54%FG/88%FT/43%3pt) while doing it. Not only is he cashing on J.R. Smith's absence (suspended until November 10) from the lineup, but Carmelo Anthony looks like he's making the leap from "superstar" to "SUPERstar", joining Kobe, LeBron, Dwight Howard and Dwyane Wade (and arguably others). Tonight, Melo and Chauncey Billups lead the Nuggets, who are averaging 115 points into Indiana, where they'll meet a Pacers team that's allowed 116 points in two games, and is not renowned for its defensive prowess. This line (on BetUS and initially at PlayersOnly) priced the likelihood of Carmelo scoring 30+ at 50-50- very odd considering his 37.7 ppg, but a fantastic value for a top 15-guy at the top of his game, with no injuries, taking on a below average team.
- Dwyane Wade OVER 29.5 points (-120; under: -110 on BetUS and +100 on PlayersOnly): A rested D-Wade at home against the reincarnation of Nash's SSOL Suns, who still don't prioritize defense or have a strong defensive presence inside? Book it! If we assume that Wade is good for roughly 1/3 of Miami's points (a healthy, but not excessive number) and the Suns "hold" the Heat to the average of their previous three opponents (Clippers, Warriors and Timberwolves), 107 points (106.7 to be exact), then the number for Wade is somewhere around 35. I would have loved this up to about 31.5, and was thrilled to get it at -120 (by 5pm Eastern, it had moved to -135 on PlayersOnly.com, and I could see it commanding -140 or more). Considering this is about what Wade is likely to average for the season, the fact that he's healthy and rested, and that playing Suns is akin to playing in an All-Star Game, this is a fantastic over bet.
- Kobe Bryant OVER 29.5 points (-115; under: -115): Pau Gasol still hasn't seen the floor in the regular season, Ron Artest is struggling offensively, Lamar Odom's been solid but unspectacular, and the role players have very disappointing. Yeah, Andrew Bynum is playing some fantastic ball, and while there's no reason expect that to stop tonight, this is Kobe's time. While the Lakers wait for Gasol to get healthy and for the role players to find some sort of a groove, Kobe will look to carry this team. 30 is practically a given tonight.
- Kevin Durant OVER 25.5 points (-115; under: -115): OKC has started strong, winning 2 of its first 3 games, and are sure to be tested tonight when the defending champs come to town. Also, this matchup will a clash between two of the NBA's best scorers, as up-and-comer Durant "squares off" (they won't be guarding one another) and all-timer Kobe Bryant exchange shots. Not only should this opportunity give Durant plenty of motivation to play a strong game, the only Laker with both the length and athleticism to guard, Lamar Odom, will have a tough time staying with KD. Expect to see Artest and Kobe on Durant from time to time. A win might be asking too much of the young Thunder, but they should be competitive and Durant will put up some nice offensive numbers.
- Ray Allen OVER 17.5 points (+105; under: -135): The number is right at Ray's season average (17.8), and thus far he's had 2 games over 17.5 and 2 games under, but this number has virtually no downside (you really think Ray Allen's hitting for less than, say, 15?). With the C's healthy and playing extremely well, their early schedule being light on travel, and Allen erasing two tough shooting games to open the season (11-for-33) with a pair of strong performances (15-for-24 in the last 2), the stage is set for a strong performance against an extremely reasonable number. Throw in the fact that this is an over with minimal downside, and it is paying better than even money, and you have an outstanding value proposition.
- Danny Granger OVER 2.5 Made 3-pointers (-150; under: +120): Do you realize that Danny Granger has attempted 22 3-pointers in two games? TWENTY-TWO! That's eleven per game! I'm generally less than enthusiastic about picking a guy to make three 3's in a game, and this isn't my most glowing recommendation for tonight, but it's hard to deny the fact that Granger's going to get ample opportunity to sink three from beyond the arc. The Pacers have attempted 41 3's in two games (27% of their FG attempts), and given the Nuggets' uptempo style, possessions and, consequently, 3-point looks should be relatively easy to come by. While I feel like Danny Granger will probably wind up hitting 3+ 3-pointers against the Nuggets, I found the the price of this wager (-150) a bit steep. Had this been priced in the +100/-115 range, on a night with fewer actionable situations involving blue-chip stars, this prop would be in bold.
- Dirk Nowitzki OVER 25.5 points (-115; under: -115): The Mavs look like they might be a pretty good team, but are pretty light on offense and will have to lean heavily on Nowitzki, at least until Josh Howard returns (and probably afterward as well). Other than Dirk, Jason Terry and Shawn Marion are the team's only real offensive threats, and Marion is more of an opportunistic scorer (offensive rebounds and fast breaks). In addition to being BY FAR the Mavs' best scorer, Dirk is one of the team's only two real options (the only one in the current starting five) in the half court. whether it's Carlos Boozer or Andrei Kirilenko guarding him, Dirk will have a mismatch to exploit. There's also a good chance that this game will be competitive, thus making it unlikely that Dirk's on-court minutes will be limited due to a blowout.
UNDER
- Andre Iguodala UNDER 25.5 points + rebounds (-105; over: -125): Iggy's performances early this season have been all over the map. And since his worst outing came against the Sixers' best opposition to date (8 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists @ Orlando), there's little reason to believe that he'll have much more success against a great defensive team with size and depth the frontcourt, like Boston. The Celtics will probably handle Philly without much trouble, and should be able to contain Iguodala in the process. Also, from a value perspective, this line is compelling because the over is a -125 favorite, while just a little bit of analysis tips the under as the more likely scenario.
- Carlos Boozer UNDER 19.5 points (-125; over: -105): The Bizarro Melo. We're looking to ride the hot hand of Carmelo Anthony above, and we're betting against Boozer in this cold streak with a nice, solid favorite. This is not the way to start a contract year (still sure you don't want to opt out, Carlos?)- we're no more than a handful of games from Boozer having officially cost himself millions of free-agent dollars. Through three games, he's shooting a putrid 31% from the floor (13-for-42) en route to 13 points per game, and with the Jazz not looking like an improved road team from last year, tonight's trip to Dallas, with a pair of good defenders (Shawn Marion and James Singleton) waiting, isn't likely to be Boozer's 2009-10 coming-out party. The way Carlos Boozer's started this season, it is entirely possible that there is really something wrong with him.
- Jason Kidd UNDER 9.5 assists (+100; over: -130):
STAYAWAY
- Paul Pierce- 30.5 points + rebounds + assists (over: -115; under: -115)
- Dwight Howard- 13.5 rebounds (over: -140; under: +110): Against a team with at least one front court, I like the under. I mean, grabbing 14 rebounds in an NBA game is hard, even for Dwight Howard! However, I can it happening against Detroit's less-than-stellar front line (Charlie V., Kwame Brown, and elderly Ben Wallace). I won't be betting on it, but I certainly don't want to bet against it.
- Gilbert Arenas- 6.5 1st quarter points (over: -115 on PlayersOnly; under: -115): I'd love the over here if this game was played in DC, but on the road Arenas seems doubly committed to his newfound facilitator role. Agent Zero will also be looking for his Wizards to produce in a strong effort in their first game of the season against a true title contender, and getting his teammates going early is probably the best way to do that. However, with all of that said, Arenas is still among the league's most explosive scorers, and is very capable of hitting this over in just a couple of minutes.
- Steve Nash- 10.5 assists (over: -125; under: -105)
- Luol Deng- 15.5 points (over: -125; under: -105)
- Deron Williams- 30.5 points + assists (over: -115; under: -115):
- Al Horford- 19.5 points + rebounds (over: -115; under: -115): This is a typical Al Horford line that looks (and is) extremely reachable, but is not yet a smart play against good teams with quality bigs. Until Horford shows greater consistency on offense, it's best to only pursue this type of prop against lesser, undersized teams (preferably with the Hawks at home), or to avoid them altogether.
- Brandon Roy- 22.5 points (over: -130; under: +100): As the season progresses, the over on this number, particularly at home, will be a pretty simple call. However, despite hitting for 30+ in each of his last 2, Roy has looked iffy early on, hitting 50% of his shots only once in the season's first four games (12-for-20 in his 42-point outburst against Houston), and shooting just 16-for-51 from the field in the Blazers' other three games. Against a big, athletic team like the Hawks, it's hard to get on board with the over here (especially at -130) when Roy is not shooting well to begin with. Once he's found a groove, this number is a virtual gimme.
Monday, November 2, 2009
A Crappy Schedule, But All Is Not Lost
Due to a family emergency (George Corbett, 1943-2009; an exceptional man. I'm proud to have known him, and to have been members of the same family.), I raced across the country this past week and was unable to devote any amount of time to look at any props bets over the weekend (I know! The nerve, huh?). I'm back and ready to continue breaking down stats and examining the matchups and lines to see (along with you) if I have any idea what I'm doing. My triumphant return, however, coincides with a light and less-than-stellar (let it never be said that I'm not polite) NBA schedule, featuring one semi-intriguing game between a pair of mid-tier Western teams (Houston @ Utah), one bona fide superstar (Chris Paul at MSG) and three absolute stinkers (NJ @ Charlotte, Minnesota @ LAC and Memphis @ Sacramento), though one of these game features an NBA man-crushe of mine (O.J. Mayo) coming off a career game. Not to worry! In the kind, big-hearted way that we've come to expect from only them, the bookmakers saw beauty in this slump-buster of a night in the Association.
* New Jersey Nets @ Charlotte Bobcats (-7). Even when healthy, the Nets are likely to be near the bottom of the league in compelling games. Take Devin Harris (groin; out at least 7-10 days) out of the mix, and match them up against the (what's the opposite of explosive? Peaceful? Flam-retardant?) Charlotte Bobcats, who are averaging just 80 points per game (69 in their 2 losses), and even by the standards of tonight's crappy schedule, you have an absolute stinker. Please, try to avoid gambling on this game (though my thoughts on a couple of lines are below).
- Yi Jianlian, 11.5 points (BetUS.com, PlayersOnly.com): This line is set just below Yi's 3-game average (11.7 ppg). Devin Harris' injury will free up some shots for his teammates, with Yi, Brook Lopez and Chris Douglas-Roberts in the best position to benefit. Even against this positive backdrop, I would avoid this over, since his shooting has been subpar (42.8%), and both his scoring (17, to 12, to 6) and his minutes (37, 34, & 32) have fallen with each game. I'm calling this line a "stayaway", not because of just how bad this game is likely to be (as you'll see, I'm getting involved in an epic Grizzlies-Kings clash), but because this is very reachable number, but I'm not sure how eager I'd be to back an inconsistent guy on a terrible team whose numbers are going the wrong way.
- Raymond Felton, 23.5 points + rebounds + assists (BetUS.com, PlayersOnly.com): We were so close to me finally picking an under! My opinion is still that Felton will not hit this number, but this play carries a greater risk than I was comfortable with, and didn't offer compelling value on the money line (-115 each for over/under). In order to hit a combined 24 pts/reb/assts, Felton would have to have a pretty good game, but it's important to realize that he reached this mark in 45 of his 81 starts (55.6%) last season, and despite his (13.7 ppg, 4 rpg, 5 apg, 39% FG) and the Bobcats' poor play over the past week, Felton is one of few legitimate scoring options (along with Gerald Wallace, Boris Diaw and DJ Augustin, who could steal minutes from Felton), and one time this week that he did exceed 24 P/R/A was in Charlotte's home game against a crappy team from the Tri-State area (22/8/9 on 10/30 v. NYK).
* New Orleans Hornets @ New York Knicks (+3). Whether or not this game turns out to be well played (with the exception of Chris Paul), there's a good chance that it will pretty damn exciting. CP3 taking on a D'Antoni SSOL team- good times. This should really happen more often! The Knicks, rested and (hopefully) motivated for win #1, should look to get off to a quick start against the Hornets, who are in the second half of a back-to-back after a tough game in Boston last night.
- Chris Paul, 1.5 3-pointers made (PlayersOnly.com): The numbers would suggest that the under is the correct play here: In 78 games last season, CP3 made multiple 3's 17 times (21% of the time) and attempted 5 or more 3's just 7 times (8.5% of the time). I chose 5 attempts as the cutoff because it's not prudent to assume that a player, particularly one without a proven track record as an outside shooter, will hit on more than 40% of his 3's in a random game. He's started this season very well from beyond the arc, hitting on five of his six attempts in three games (obviously not sustainable over any extended period), and has yet to attempt more than three in game, suggesting that multiple 3's are unlikely in any game in which he's not riding a hot streak. With that said, not only does this line not offer good value (-135 on the under), CP3 is on the short list of players whom I refuse to bet against individually (Kobe, LeBron, D-Wade, Carmelo Anthony is the short list).
- David Lee, 10.5 rebounds (BetUS.com, PlayersOnly.com): See below.
* Houston Rockets @ Utah Jazz (-7.5). This Rockets team is tough. After a tough game in Portland on opening night, they've really raised their offensive game, although having given up 107 points in each of the last 2 games, they might want to address some things on D. However, with that said, barring any further injury, the Rockets will be a very competitive team and should win ~45 games this year (man, that preseason line of 37.5 wins looks low now!). Beating a rested Utah team coming off a win their home opener will be a challenge, but I expect the Rockets to give a good showing. I'd probably take the points.
- Aaron Brooks, 5.5 3-point attempts (PlayersOnly.com): This season, as long as he's on the floor, Brooks could hit the over on this line in two out of every three games. He averaged just under 4 attempts per game last season (included ~5/game in March) and has attempted six 3's in each of the first three games in 2009-10,and has improved his performance with each game (0-for-6 @ Portland; 3-for-6 @ GS; 4-for-6 v. Portland). On the current roster, Brooks is the Rockets' top offensive threat (a couple more big games from Trevor Ariza and we'll add him to the list), and should be on the floor for at least 40 minutes per game, since he's been outstanding at the PG spot (8.3 apg, 2.27 asst/TO). On the upside, this, along with OJ Mayo's line (we'll get to this in a second), are the bets of tonight's lot.
- Carlos Boozer, 27.5 points + rebounds (BetUS, PlayersOnly.com): See below.
* Memphis Grizzlies @ Sacramento Kings (-1). Make no mistake, this is a matchup of teams that will struggle to be mediocre, but the Grizzlies will at least put up points and produce some stretches of very exciting play. Between OJ Mayo (I have a part-time job driving his bandwagon), Zach Randolph (bad teammate and a black hole in the post, but really talented) Allen Iverson (will turn back the clock in spurts) and Rudy Gay (awesome wing guy and a slightly underrated shooter) will play some nice ball, but sadly it seems as though they forget to guard the members of the opposing team.
- OJ Mayo, 26.5 points + rebounds + assists (BetUS.com, PlayersOnly.com): See below.
- Kevin Martin, 6.5 1st quarter points (PlayersOnly.com): Based on last season's stats, the over is not a bad play- A solid favorite (-145) on a great shooter (his >90% on FTs is a huge help) who's the primary offensive option on a team that lacks talent. In 2008-09, Martin played an average of more than 10 minutes in the 1st quarter, scoring 6.8 points and shooting very well (48%FG/86%FT/40%3pt). K-Mart struggled from the floor in 1Q of his first two games of 2009-10 (2-for11 combined), before making four of six in San Antonio on Halloween, but it should be noted that he's getting plenty of early shots. Toss in the fact(s) that he's missed just one free throw in three games (24-for-25) and this is his home opener, and you could really do worse than backing K-Mart in this game.
* Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Clippers (-8). Most people would consider this a crappy game, but unlike Nets-Bobs or Grizzlies-Kings, there are some interesting subplots to watch here. Despite the combined 1-6 record, this game is more of "basketball nerd special" in terms of things to watch for: Baron Davis is the key to the Clippers- it is interesting to see if he's healthy and at least "not unhappy"; the Clippers' have an outstanding inside duo in Chris Kaman and Marcus Camby, who are fun to watch when they're playing well together; Eric Gordon is a future (not too distant) 25-point scorer, and a pleasure to watch; Al Jefferson, coming back from ACL surgery, looks to be getting close to 100%; injury-plagued lottery pick Corey Brewer is finally getting some real minutes and looks like a good NBA player.
- Jonny Flynn, .5 3-pointers made (PlayersOnly.com): Flynn is another compelling young player in this game. He's off to good start, averaging 15.3 ppg (on close to 50%FG), 3 assists and almost 2 steals. He is an exciting, potentially very good young player, but taking a look at the line for this wager, I can't help but think that this would be a pure gamble. Flynn is 2-for-4 in the early going, and while it's safe to assume that most backcourt starters in the NBA will attempt at least a couple of 3's in most games, the lack of a meaningful amount of pro data, along with potential of Ramon Sessions to dramatically eat into his minutes really hurts this proposition from a risk-reward perspective.
- David Lee OVER 10.5 rebounds (-115 on BetUS & PlayersOnly): BIG fan of the over on this line! This is what David Lee does- and does it well. In the 2008-09 season, Lee grabbed 11 or more rebounds in more than 70% (57-of-81) of his games, and although he off to a slow rebounding start (for him), hitting double-digits just once in three games, he's one of the best pure rebounders in the league, and as long as he's healthy and not in foul trouble, he will get lots of minutes, and in a matchup of subpar teams (yes, the Hornets are subpar), there are sure to be plenty of rebounds to be gotten.
- Carlos Boozer UNDER 27.5 points + rebounds (-115 on BEtUS & Playersonly): A far more attractive proposition than the 31.5 he faced on opening night, and seemingly a logical number based on how he's been playing (in just 2 games, he's put up 21-11 and 20-12), but he's shot terribly this week (12-for-36 from the field). This prop is priced as a toss-up (-115 either way), but Boozer's poor shooting, the presence of Paul Millsap and Houston's three physical, athletic bigs (Luis Scola, Carl Landry and Chuck Hayes) make the under an attractive, actionable situation. You know what that is? Huh? Do you? That's me picking an under, baby!!!
- OJ Mayo OVER 26.5 points + rebounds + assists (-130 on BetUS.com): Take this one to the bank. Now, I am admittedly biased- I am an O.J. Mayo fan and firmly believe that he will be one of the NBA's top 20-25 players by the end of the season. With that said, there is an objective argument to be made in favor of the over on this line. Last season, as a rookie, he averaged 18.5/3.8/3.2, putting him 1 point below this line on an "average" night and reaching this number 44% of the time (36 times). Three games into this season, his 22/5.7/3 averages comfortably surpassing this line (~31, v. 26.5). More importantly, Mayo plays with a certain "Kobe-esque" streak, seeming to never believe that he's not the best player on the floor and making the very most of every last hot streak, and he enters tonight's game, against possibly the worst team in the NBA (and Kevin Martin, not exactly a defensive stopper!), on the heels of a truly great performance, and the best of his young career (40 points, 17-25 FG, 4-8 from 3, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 0 turnovers). Under ordinary circumstances, he'd stand to get minutes (36/game through 3) and shot attempts (18/game), but coming off his first career 40-point game and trading blows with a red-hot Carmelo Anthony, it's a safe bet that O.J. will be aggressive tonight (looking for at least 25 points). Toss in a small sideline squabble with Rudy Gay about defensive effort, and we're likely to see Mayo trying to prove a point by crashing the boards (he's already averaging almost 6 per game). LOVE. THIS. OVER.
* New Jersey Nets @ Charlotte Bobcats (-7). Even when healthy, the Nets are likely to be near the bottom of the league in compelling games. Take Devin Harris (groin; out at least 7-10 days) out of the mix, and match them up against the (what's the opposite of explosive? Peaceful? Flam-retardant?) Charlotte Bobcats, who are averaging just 80 points per game (69 in their 2 losses), and even by the standards of tonight's crappy schedule, you have an absolute stinker. Please, try to avoid gambling on this game (though my thoughts on a couple of lines are below).
- Yi Jianlian, 11.5 points (BetUS.com, PlayersOnly.com): This line is set just below Yi's 3-game average (11.7 ppg). Devin Harris' injury will free up some shots for his teammates, with Yi, Brook Lopez and Chris Douglas-Roberts in the best position to benefit. Even against this positive backdrop, I would avoid this over, since his shooting has been subpar (42.8%), and both his scoring (17, to 12, to 6) and his minutes (37, 34, & 32) have fallen with each game. I'm calling this line a "stayaway", not because of just how bad this game is likely to be (as you'll see, I'm getting involved in an epic Grizzlies-Kings clash), but because this is very reachable number, but I'm not sure how eager I'd be to back an inconsistent guy on a terrible team whose numbers are going the wrong way.
- Raymond Felton, 23.5 points + rebounds + assists (BetUS.com, PlayersOnly.com): We were so close to me finally picking an under! My opinion is still that Felton will not hit this number, but this play carries a greater risk than I was comfortable with, and didn't offer compelling value on the money line (-115 each for over/under). In order to hit a combined 24 pts/reb/assts, Felton would have to have a pretty good game, but it's important to realize that he reached this mark in 45 of his 81 starts (55.6%) last season, and despite his (13.7 ppg, 4 rpg, 5 apg, 39% FG) and the Bobcats' poor play over the past week, Felton is one of few legitimate scoring options (along with Gerald Wallace, Boris Diaw and DJ Augustin, who could steal minutes from Felton), and one time this week that he did exceed 24 P/R/A was in Charlotte's home game against a crappy team from the Tri-State area (22/8/9 on 10/30 v. NYK).
* New Orleans Hornets @ New York Knicks (+3). Whether or not this game turns out to be well played (with the exception of Chris Paul), there's a good chance that it will pretty damn exciting. CP3 taking on a D'Antoni SSOL team- good times. This should really happen more often! The Knicks, rested and (hopefully) motivated for win #1, should look to get off to a quick start against the Hornets, who are in the second half of a back-to-back after a tough game in Boston last night.
- Chris Paul, 1.5 3-pointers made (PlayersOnly.com): The numbers would suggest that the under is the correct play here: In 78 games last season, CP3 made multiple 3's 17 times (21% of the time) and attempted 5 or more 3's just 7 times (8.5% of the time). I chose 5 attempts as the cutoff because it's not prudent to assume that a player, particularly one without a proven track record as an outside shooter, will hit on more than 40% of his 3's in a random game. He's started this season very well from beyond the arc, hitting on five of his six attempts in three games (obviously not sustainable over any extended period), and has yet to attempt more than three in game, suggesting that multiple 3's are unlikely in any game in which he's not riding a hot streak. With that said, not only does this line not offer good value (-135 on the under), CP3 is on the short list of players whom I refuse to bet against individually (Kobe, LeBron, D-Wade, Carmelo Anthony is the short list).
- David Lee, 10.5 rebounds (BetUS.com, PlayersOnly.com): See below.
* Houston Rockets @ Utah Jazz (-7.5). This Rockets team is tough. After a tough game in Portland on opening night, they've really raised their offensive game, although having given up 107 points in each of the last 2 games, they might want to address some things on D. However, with that said, barring any further injury, the Rockets will be a very competitive team and should win ~45 games this year (man, that preseason line of 37.5 wins looks low now!). Beating a rested Utah team coming off a win their home opener will be a challenge, but I expect the Rockets to give a good showing. I'd probably take the points.
- Aaron Brooks, 5.5 3-point attempts (PlayersOnly.com): This season, as long as he's on the floor, Brooks could hit the over on this line in two out of every three games. He averaged just under 4 attempts per game last season (included ~5/game in March) and has attempted six 3's in each of the first three games in 2009-10,and has improved his performance with each game (0-for-6 @ Portland; 3-for-6 @ GS; 4-for-6 v. Portland). On the current roster, Brooks is the Rockets' top offensive threat (a couple more big games from Trevor Ariza and we'll add him to the list), and should be on the floor for at least 40 minutes per game, since he's been outstanding at the PG spot (8.3 apg, 2.27 asst/TO). On the upside, this, along with OJ Mayo's line (we'll get to this in a second), are the bets of tonight's lot.
- Carlos Boozer, 27.5 points + rebounds (BetUS, PlayersOnly.com): See below.
* Memphis Grizzlies @ Sacramento Kings (-1). Make no mistake, this is a matchup of teams that will struggle to be mediocre, but the Grizzlies will at least put up points and produce some stretches of very exciting play. Between OJ Mayo (I have a part-time job driving his bandwagon), Zach Randolph (bad teammate and a black hole in the post, but really talented) Allen Iverson (will turn back the clock in spurts) and Rudy Gay (awesome wing guy and a slightly underrated shooter) will play some nice ball, but sadly it seems as though they forget to guard the members of the opposing team.
- OJ Mayo, 26.5 points + rebounds + assists (BetUS.com, PlayersOnly.com): See below.
- Kevin Martin, 6.5 1st quarter points (PlayersOnly.com): Based on last season's stats, the over is not a bad play- A solid favorite (-145) on a great shooter (his >90% on FTs is a huge help) who's the primary offensive option on a team that lacks talent. In 2008-09, Martin played an average of more than 10 minutes in the 1st quarter, scoring 6.8 points and shooting very well (48%FG/86%FT/40%3pt). K-Mart struggled from the floor in 1Q of his first two games of 2009-10 (2-for11 combined), before making four of six in San Antonio on Halloween, but it should be noted that he's getting plenty of early shots. Toss in the fact(s) that he's missed just one free throw in three games (24-for-25) and this is his home opener, and you could really do worse than backing K-Mart in this game.
* Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Clippers (-8). Most people would consider this a crappy game, but unlike Nets-Bobs or Grizzlies-Kings, there are some interesting subplots to watch here. Despite the combined 1-6 record, this game is more of "basketball nerd special" in terms of things to watch for: Baron Davis is the key to the Clippers- it is interesting to see if he's healthy and at least "not unhappy"; the Clippers' have an outstanding inside duo in Chris Kaman and Marcus Camby, who are fun to watch when they're playing well together; Eric Gordon is a future (not too distant) 25-point scorer, and a pleasure to watch; Al Jefferson, coming back from ACL surgery, looks to be getting close to 100%; injury-plagued lottery pick Corey Brewer is finally getting some real minutes and looks like a good NBA player.
- Jonny Flynn, .5 3-pointers made (PlayersOnly.com): Flynn is another compelling young player in this game. He's off to good start, averaging 15.3 ppg (on close to 50%FG), 3 assists and almost 2 steals. He is an exciting, potentially very good young player, but taking a look at the line for this wager, I can't help but think that this would be a pure gamble. Flynn is 2-for-4 in the early going, and while it's safe to assume that most backcourt starters in the NBA will attempt at least a couple of 3's in most games, the lack of a meaningful amount of pro data, along with potential of Ramon Sessions to dramatically eat into his minutes really hurts this proposition from a risk-reward perspective.
- David Lee OVER 10.5 rebounds (-115 on BetUS & PlayersOnly): BIG fan of the over on this line! This is what David Lee does- and does it well. In the 2008-09 season, Lee grabbed 11 or more rebounds in more than 70% (57-of-81) of his games, and although he off to a slow rebounding start (for him), hitting double-digits just once in three games, he's one of the best pure rebounders in the league, and as long as he's healthy and not in foul trouble, he will get lots of minutes, and in a matchup of subpar teams (yes, the Hornets are subpar), there are sure to be plenty of rebounds to be gotten.
- Carlos Boozer UNDER 27.5 points + rebounds (-115 on BEtUS & Playersonly): A far more attractive proposition than the 31.5 he faced on opening night, and seemingly a logical number based on how he's been playing (in just 2 games, he's put up 21-11 and 20-12), but he's shot terribly this week (12-for-36 from the field). This prop is priced as a toss-up (-115 either way), but Boozer's poor shooting, the presence of Paul Millsap and Houston's three physical, athletic bigs (Luis Scola, Carl Landry and Chuck Hayes) make the under an attractive, actionable situation. You know what that is? Huh? Do you? That's me picking an under, baby!!!
- OJ Mayo OVER 26.5 points + rebounds + assists (-130 on BetUS.com): Take this one to the bank. Now, I am admittedly biased- I am an O.J. Mayo fan and firmly believe that he will be one of the NBA's top 20-25 players by the end of the season. With that said, there is an objective argument to be made in favor of the over on this line. Last season, as a rookie, he averaged 18.5/3.8/3.2, putting him 1 point below this line on an "average" night and reaching this number 44% of the time (36 times). Three games into this season, his 22/5.7/3 averages comfortably surpassing this line (~31, v. 26.5). More importantly, Mayo plays with a certain "Kobe-esque" streak, seeming to never believe that he's not the best player on the floor and making the very most of every last hot streak, and he enters tonight's game, against possibly the worst team in the NBA (and Kevin Martin, not exactly a defensive stopper!), on the heels of a truly great performance, and the best of his young career (40 points, 17-25 FG, 4-8 from 3, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 0 turnovers). Under ordinary circumstances, he'd stand to get minutes (36/game through 3) and shot attempts (18/game), but coming off his first career 40-point game and trading blows with a red-hot Carmelo Anthony, it's a safe bet that O.J. will be aggressive tonight (looking for at least 25 points). Toss in a small sideline squabble with Rudy Gay about defensive effort, and we're likely to see Mayo trying to prove a point by crashing the boards (he's already averaging almost 6 per game). LOVE. THIS. OVER.
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