Day 2- Back for more!

OK, I'm back, baby! Day 2!

Following last night's 4-game kick-off, the NBA schedule gives us a nice slate of games tonight (12 in all), in what the majority of the league considers "Opening Night". As was the case with last night's games, the selection of prop lines is somewhat lacking volume, though not in quality. For the time being I am considering this an early-season phenomenon, but if it persists and I am able to find a supplemental source or more robust alternative, these are things that may be looked into. But more on that another time, let's check out some props! Below is the full list of games on tonight's NBA sched (can this catch on? let's see..), along with any props offered by BetUS.com, followed by my picks for tonight.

* Indiana Pacers @ Atlanta Hawks (-8)- This should be a pretty entertaining game. Indy is not bad, and while there's some talk of the Hawks being the "clear" #4 team in East (Washington may have something to say about this), I wouldn't be shocked if they slip a bit this year.
NO PROPS OFFERED

* Philadelphia 76ers @ Orlando Magic (-10.5)- Vince Carter's first game with the Magic, who start the season with huge expectations. They must get off to a strong start. Also, I have no idea what to make of Philly. Are they any good? What kind of team are they trying to be?
NO PROPS OFFERED

* Charlotte Bobcats @ Boston Celtics (-10)- A strong, veteran-laden title contender making its home debut against maybe the worst team in the East. B-E-A-T-D-O-W-N
NO PROPS OFFERED

* Cleveland Cavaliers @ Toronto Raptors (+7)- After a disappointing start Tuesday night, the Cavs have to travel for the tail end of a back-to-back. With Shaq looking pretty old and no Delonte, expect the Raps to give the Cavs a tough game.

- LeBron James, 44 points + rebounds + assists: This is an awfully high number, certainly within reach, but not an over I'd be comfortable taking in Game 2 of the season, on the road in the second of a back-to-back while working to integrate new personnel. However, and I can't stress this enough- DO NOT take the under in props involving LeBron James. On any given night, he could hit this number by halftime.

- Chris Bosh, 9.5 rebounds: Bosh always seems to get 8-12 rebounds, and this is right in his range. There doesn't seem to be much value on either side here.

* New York Knicks @ Miami Heat (-5.5)- The Knicks start the season against one of their likely Summer of 2010 free-agent targets

- Dwyane Wade, 31 points: See below

* New Jersey Nets @ Minnesota Timberwolves (+1.5)- As an honorary Minnesotan, I really have a soft spot in my heart for the Wolves, but with no Kevin Love and Al Jefferson at less than 100%, I can't think of a single reason to watch this game.
NO PROPS OFFERED

* New Orleans Hornets @ San Antonio Spurs (-9.5)- The Spurs, rested, retooled and generating tons of buzz as a potential 60-win team (happily took them over 54.5 wins) and title contenders (again), open the season at home against the team that could be this season's biggest disappointment. As always, Chris Paul will be a monster, and David West should be solid, but it's difficult to find another major threat on the roster. Toss in the fact that teammates are already questioning Emeka Okafor's toughness, and this will probably be a rocky start to a long season.

- Chris Paul, 32.5 points + assists: Against most teams, this would be a relatively easy over, but the Spurs scheme and execute so well on defense, and they have a PG than can actually stay with CP3. There's a good chance Paul hits this over, but I can't really bless the over here but, as was the case with LeBron, you will not see me taking a Chris Paul under.

- David West, 20 points: A possible over, but not one that I'm in love with, a definitely not worth the wager. He's sure to be Paul's #1 target with Chandler gone and declining Peja Stojakovic heading to the bench, but Duncan and McDyess' D could make life really tough for him.

- Tim Duncan, 10.5 rebounds: At first blush, this number seems like it could be a bit high for an aging Duncan, especially with Antonio McDyess and DeJuan Blair joining the front line. This will likely be the case most nights as the season wears on, but a rested Duncan at home on opening night is probably good for 12-14 boards.

Sacramento Kings @ Oklahoma City Thunder (-6.5)- Only a handful of Kings games will be worth watching this year (none of them due to the Kings themselves) and this should be one of them. OKC's young studs (Durant, Westbrook & Green) should be a really fun teams to watch.
NO PROPS OFFERED (though you'd do well to take the OVER on a Kevin Durant scoring line, if you can find one. And if you do find one, lemme know where!)

* Detroit Pistons @ Memphis Grizzlies (+2.5)- If not for that New Jersey-Minnesota gem, this would be the least compelling game of the night. And it's still not far off.
NO PROPS OFFERED

* Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets (-6)- A great opener. Two of the best teams in the Northwest Division, two elite point guards and a chance for the Nuggets to try and continue last year's great play. There seems to be growing doubt, but I think these guys are for real.

- Carlos Boozer, 31.5 points + rebounds: Most games this season, I would jump on the under for this line (and am still strongly leaning that way), but given the pace that this game is likely to be played at, there will be plenty of points and rebounds to go around. Carlos Boozer missed 45 games last year, opening the door for Paul Millsap, who thrived in Boozer's absence, earned himself more minutes and got paid this offseason.

- Deron Williams, 31.5 points + assists: See below

- Carmelo Anthony, 24 points: See below

* Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors (-6.5)- This should be an entertaining game between two talented, athletic teams facing plenty of questions. Opening night in Portland was less than encouraging for the Rockets, but this is still a solid team with good chemistry, and there's probably no better team in the West to find an offensive groove against than Golden State. The same cannot be said of the Warriors, who seem to have tuned out their coach, are facing chemistry problems in the backcourt and are actively (and publicly) shoppping their second best player and on-court leader.
NO PROPS OFFERED

* Phoenix Suns @ Los Angeles Clippers (+3.5)- Even without Blake Griffin, (on paper) the Clippers are a deep, well-rounded team. If Baron Davis is anywhere close to 100%, the Clippers will not only run with Nash and the Suns, but should pull out the win without much concern.

- Steve Nash, 10.5 assists: The Suns say they're returning to their uptempo "Seven Seconds or Less" style. If that's really the case, and there's no reason to believe that it's not, this looks like a very attainable number. Ordinarily I'd be all over this, but I'd like to see Nash play a few games first, just to see how his back holds up.

I swear, I will pick an under one of these days! For tonight however, I'm backing three of the league's best players to kick off their respective seasons emphatically:

Dwyane Wade OVER 31 points (-115) vs. New York Knicks- Not gonna make this mistake two nights in a row! An elite, top-5 guy (reigning scoring champ as well), starting the season at home against a terrible team (that may try to sign him next summer) that plays an uptempo game? And the Knicks' will be trying to slow Wade down with Wilson Chandler, Toney Douglas and possibly Nate Robinson? Done deal!

Carmelo Anthony OVER 24 points (-130) vs. Utah Jazz- This line almost seems too good. I love it, but wouldn't blame anyone who avoided this line. Year in, year out, Carmelo is a 25-27 ppg scorer. Throw in the fact that the Nuggets are without the suspended J.R. Smith for 7 games, and Melo's scoring numbers should climb even higher. If this one doesn't look fishy to you, POUND IT!

Deron Williams OVER 31.5 points + assists (-110) vs. Denver Nuggets- Under most circumstances, this number would be a bit high (or at least too high to be a good value), but against a handful of teams (primarily Phoenix, Denver and Golden State), games are played at a high tempo and with a ton of possessions. Basically, these games are tailor-made for great point guards. Absolutely love DWill in this game- he may hit this number on points alone!

Opening Night Jitters

We, that certainly could have gone better! Any time you can call attention to yourself and self-importantly lay out a manifesto only to whiff spectacularly on opening night, you gotta go for it, right? I couldn't have done it by myself, however. I'd like to thank Brandon Roy and Ron Artest for that combined 8-for-28 (28.6%) shooting performance. Thanks guys!

Time to get back in the saddle. It's a long season. It's a marathon, not a sprint. One day at a time. Gotta let the game come to me.

OK, the post-game press conference is out of the way, now let's sort through the wreckage. In Portland, the Trailblazers booked their first win of the season, beating the Rockets 96-87 (covering 8.5) in a game that was not nearly as competitive as the final would suggest, despite 26 turnovers (26!) by Portland. The Blazers led by double-digits for virtually the entire game, extending the lead to 20 in the second half, before faltering a bit in the fourth quarter, when the Rockets pulled to within six. With LaMarcus Aldridge in foul trouble all game, the Blazers were led by 23 (9-14, 3-5 on 3s) from Travis Outlaw, 20 points and 5 assists from Roy (more on this in a sec), and 14 (on just 7 shots) from Martell Webster. Greg Oden also deserves some credit for his rebounding (12 boards, 4 offensive) and interior D (5 blocks), with Aldridge only on the floor for half the game and Joel Przybilla fouling out with about seven minutes left in the game. Not a great win for Portland, but a win nonetheless. However, not everybody was thrilled with the Blazers last night...

As you may recall, on a night when Kobe (33 points, topping an O/U of 29) and LeBron (38, v. O/U of 29.5) kicked off their respective seasons at home, I unapologetically cast my superstar vote for Brandon Roy, proclaiming the he would rack up at least 26 points and assists. And it frankly should have worked. Had Brandon Roy, who was an awful 5-for-18 (27.8%) from the field last night, managed to make just one out of every three shots he attempted, this prop would have been a winner. This, along with the fact that, in spite of his rough shooting night, Roy had multiple (3, I believe) attempts that could have pushed his total over. If we look at this single prop in a vacuum, I can say that have no regrets about my selection- I needed Brandon Roy to shoot 33% from the field. Sadly, it didn't happen, but if could effectively bet on Brandon Roy shooting 33% every night, I would, and it would be long before I could quit my day job. The one regret that I do have, however, is that I got cute and didn't go with proven, legendary greatness. As awesome a player as I think Brandon Roy is, I could have applied the exact same criteria to Kobe Bryant and LeBron James (new season, home opener, in Kobe's case the emotion of a ring ceremony and a significantly weaker opponent) and backed one (or two) of the 15 greatest players of all time. Let's move on...

While I was confident in Brandon Roy, I was POSITIVE that Ron Artest would top 13.5 points. Alas, the newest Laker did me no favors either. Although, to be fair, at least Ron-Ron managed to outshoot Brandon Roy by making a whopping three of his ten field goal attempts. In addition to missing seven of his ten shots, Artest was off on four of his five 3-pointers and four of his seven free throw attempts. He played a solid all-around game and like Roy, Artest was not without opportunities to reach that 14-point mark (at least 3 WIDE open 3's come to mind, not mention the missed FTs), he just wound up having a brutal night shooting the ball. However, as was the case with Brandon Roy, this was a legitimate actionable situation. I still believe the premise on which I selected this line was sound. I was also given the opportunity to win, even in spite of Artest's poor shooting, which is really all you can ask for.


The main takeaways from last night's action?

* Don't get cute. There's no bonus for showing the world how freaking smart you are. Don't bypass greatness. The wins are just as sweet when you back Kobe or LeBron. Actually, they are often times more fun, because if you're on board with these guys during one of those games (I had "Kobe over 35.5 points" on the night of "81"), it is a hell of a lot of fun!

* Ideas can be perfectly logical, well thought out and justifiable- and still lose. Sometimes good players miss shots.

No more looking back! Gonna shake off opening night and take a shot at tonight's lines. Stay tuned...

Opening Night!

We're just hours from the first of four games (2 on TNT) that will tip-off the 2009-2010 season. The evening, which at the time of writing (5:25 pm Eastern) is shockingly light on props (at least according to betus.com), will begin in Cleveland, where the Cavs will host the Boston Celtics at 7:30 pm Eastern time. the Cavs look like they will be without Delonte West, whose personal problems (an arrest for riding his motorcycle with 3 loaded guns last month, and a domestic disturbance this past weekend) have severely limited his preparation for the season. The Celtics will take the floor without Glen "Big Baby" Davis, who underwent surgery on his broken right thumb, which he sustained in a fight with one of his old college teammates (Huh? Not sure why, but this wrinkle struck me as odd). Davis will reportedly be out for up to 2 months. As was the case with all of tonight's game's, the prop pickings were very slim here, with only Paul Pierce's points (18.5; a very probable over) and LeBron's points (29.5; right around where he'll end up) on the board.

Celtics-Cavs is the first game in TNT's opening night doubleheader, followed at 10:30 pm Eastern by what should be an entertaining "Battle of L.A.", but could be marred by injuries, as each team will be without at least one key frontcourt contributor. The Lakers' Pau Gasol will be out with an injured hamstring, and the Clippers' rookie stud, Blake Griffin, will be out with a broken left patella that may sideline him for 6 weeks. As if they didn't have enough to contend with on the night that Kobe receives his first post-Shaq ring, the Clippers will likely only receive limited minutes from Marcus Camby (ankle), and could be without Baron Davis (foot), who would be replaced by Sebastian Telfair (yikes!) if he is unable to go. Even without Gasol, the Lakers shouldn't really have too much trouble getting their title defense off to a successful start against the shorthanded Clippers, in a game that I thought would offer a nice variety of props. However, this game also offered just two options, on a pair of Lakers, with Kobe's points (29; a probable over, but I have no clue- we could see Facilitator Kobe) and Ron Artest's points (13.5; see below) as the only options in play.

Elsewhere in the Association, the Washington Wizards, with 2 of their 3 stars (as usual), travel to Dallas to open the season against the Mavericks at 8:30 pm. The Wiz will be without Antawn Jamison, though for the first time in quite a while, they will have a healthy Gilbert Arenas who, in addition to a clean bill of health, enters the new season with a less chatty demeanor and a vow to be an old-school playmaker. From the perspective of a prop bettor, this will have a couple of implications for the Wiz: first, Arenas has all the tools needed to lead the league in assists, and with a defiant commitment to this (which seems very possible, given his personality), could generate great value on any of his assist props; second, Agent Zero's new approach could make his scoring props bit high to start the season (his scoring could go from 29 to 22/23), but could play right into the scoring props of his teammates (well, Caron Butler; he's is the only with prop lines regularly posted), which could wind up being be good values. Like Washington, the Mavs will be without one of their best frontcourt players, as Josh Howard is sidelined (and apparently will be for a while) following offseason ankle surgery. Again, we were given a pair of props to consider, one from each team: Caron Butler's points (21; leaning under, but Arenas could get him going), and Dirk's points + rebounds (33.5; that seems like the right number)

And finally, at 10 pm, the Houston Rockets will take on the NBA's Sexiest Team for the second year running when they meet the Trailblazers at the Rose Garden, in a rematch (in name only) of last year's first round playoff series. For Houston, neither Yao nor Tracy McGrady will be on the floor, leaving the fate of the Rockets in the hands of some talented, but relatively unheralded (for the time-being) role players: Shane Battier, Trevor Ariza, Chuck Hayes, Kyle Lowry, Carl Landry and my picks as the Rockets' breakout stars for the season, Aaron Brooks and Luis Scola. I should point out that these guys are no pushover! It was more or less (swap out Ariza for Artest) this group of guys that battled the Lakers all the way to Game 7 in last year's West Semis. The Blazers, coming off a 54-win season that went a long way toward justifying some massive preseason expectations, enter this season under similar circumstances- a young, supremely gifted team looking to mature and take "The Leap". Given the Rockets' injury woes and Portland's status as no worse than "everyone's second favorite team", it's not shocking that the only prop from this game is Blazer-focused: Brnadon Roy's points + assists (25.5; see below).


Now, let's pick some winners! We've been given a modest menu from which to order, but 2 props very quickly emerged for me as the cream of today's crop on the upside:


Brandon Roy OVER 25.5 points + assists (-125) vs. Houston Rockets

For a variety of reasons, this line makes tons of sense. First, Brandon Roy is a legitimate NBA star, and will probably add a "super" to that title before very long. He's almost always good for a steady 22+ per game (22.6 last season), and averaged more than 5 assists (5.1, but still) per game last season, and there is no reason to expect that we won't equal those numbers again this year. Also, Roy, who's making a habit of meeting or exceeding high expectations, is the type of player that WILL NOT lay an egg on opening night in his own building, especially against the team that pretty handily disposed of his Blazers last spring. Though he is likely to spend a good amount of time on offense battling Battier and Ariza, Roy has an amazing knack for getting into the lane and is absolutely devastating in the pick-and-roll with LaMarcus Aldridge and, fingers crossed, the improved Greg Oden. It's not a stretch to say that he could rack 5-6 assists from these two alone. Also, we know he's not only going to get minutes, he is going to bust his ass every second he's out there. Additionally, I watched this line throughout the day, after opening at -115 for either the over or the under, it evolved into a solid favorite, with the 25.5 figure holding steady, and the over moving to -125 in the afternoon. There is a chance that Roy could obliterate this number.


Ron Artest OVER 13.5 points (-130) vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Under "normal" (yeah, I know Ron Artest is involved!) circumstances, this is frankly where we can expect Ron-Ron's scoring to be all season (12-13 ppg). As the season unfolds, I do not see Artest's scoring props, or any of his props really, as particularly compelling values. However, multiple factors are in play that point to a strong offensive game for Artest tonight. First, despite the fact that Artest was brought to L.A. as nothing higher than a third option on offense (putting him above Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum on the food chain- by means a gimme!), the absence of Pau Gasol ensures that the start to that era will be postponed for at least a couple more days, and that Kobe & Co. might need a little something extra tonight. With Pau out, we know that Ron will definitely see plenty of time on the floor, most (if not all) of it matched up against Al Thonton (a handful on offense, but plays no D) and Craig Smith. Throw in the fact that Artest, a guy who's as emotional as he is talented, along with a jacked-up sellout crowd, will watch his new teammates accept their championship rings before the game, and his desire to endear himself to the new fans and put on a championship-caliber display will be off the charts. For at least one more night, Ron Artest is the #2 option on a great team, and both his effort level and his behavior are sure to be at level befitting that. Also, as was the case with Brandon Roy above, in looking at this line throughout the day, this has the look of a solid favorite- the 13.5 figure has persisted, though it opened at -120 and has since moved to -130. While the target may seem low for Artrest, there is no "too good to be true" element here- you're paying for a good, reachable number.

Mad Props!

I've heard that in the long run, wagering on the NBA, over/unders in particular, is largely a sucker's bet. Having made several attempts to debunk this theory over an extended period of time, with little to show for it, outside of the occasional hot streak, either in my own picks league-wide or in the form of a too-hot (in some cases, cold)-to-ignore team (remember the 2-3 week runs the Seven Seconds or Less Suns would go on?), that takes on the persona of hot shooter at a craps table- even if you get arrive a bit late, get on the bandwagon and ride it as long as you can. You know the streak's gonna end, possibly very soon, but you're not gonna bet against it, and hopefully you can make a little something before the streak's end. Alas, as is to be expected, these streaks all prove to be self-correcting, making the degree of difficulty for any frequent (compulsive is just such an icky word!) gambler looking to profit from the NBA nearly insurmountable. However, based on my experience of a few months ago, there just might be an overlooked segment of the basketball gaming universe that could prove profitable to the informed, disciplined gambler. The segment I speak of, is propositions (prop) bets. On the heels of a very fun (and profitable) 2-month run in the 2009 NBA postseason, I am dedicating this corner of the Internet to the idea, right or wrong, that well thought out prop wagers can in fact be an ongoing, profitable way to enjoy the NBA. First, a bit of background:

As the playoffs kicked off last spring, I found myself in a familiar spot- having logged HUNDREDS OF HOURS of NBA viewing, knowing exactly which players were good, and why, capable of naming the second unit for most teams, even having strong opinions on numerous local broadcast teams- and still down for the year! Then a funny thing happened as the playoffs got rolling- I found myself with strong, specific opinions on not only how the games would play out, but on whose shoulders it would happen. For instance, I was "bullish on the Bulls" in Round 1 (this is documented in both writing and audio) and LOVED any matchup that the Celtics could throw at Derrick Rose. Before Game 1 in Boston, I had taken the Bulls in every which way possible ($ line, teaser and against the spread, which I believe was +8.5), but still felt like I hadn't thrown enough support behind my breakout pick, Derrick Rose. As much fun as they are (you haven't lived until you've been invested in Tony Scheffler's 3rd catch on a Monday night!), I had never been a huge fan of prop bets as a way to consistently win, but wanting to put my money where my mouth was, and at the same time possibly hedge my numerous bets on his team, I plunked down a few bucks on Rose's "points + assists" exceeding 23.5. As I'm sure you remember, my cash was never really in danger, as Rose torched the C's for 36 and 11 in Chicago's OT win, starting me down what would be quite an interesting postseason path.

As the Bulls and Celtics were winding down, LeBron James and Cavs were preparing to kick off their postseason at home against the Detroit Pistons. Looking at the line ahead of the game, I was (mistakenly) apprehensive about laying 13.5 (if memory serves) points, but knew that there was NO DAMN WAY that LeBron was going to lay an egg in the first game of what was expected to be his coronation, even if it came in a 13-point win. I took a second to think about it, and shuddered at the thought of getting financially and emotionally invested in this game, only to possibly watch LBJ slap the Pistons with 35-10-8 in a 103-90 game. After concluding that this would be a kick-in-balls loss and, being sure (as much as you can be sure in this crazy business) that LeBron would have a monster game (Think back to Magic and MJ and how they would kick off the playoffs leading a top-seeded team?), I hopped on board with the idea that he would rack up more than 42.5 "points + rebounds + assists". The Cavs dominated the game, and their 102-84 win did ultimately cover the 13.5-point spread, but I do recall some mildly dicey 4th quarter garbage-time moments- none of which affected my mood, since LeBron had already retired to the bench, having scored 38 points (you remember that unreal half-court, halftime buzz-beater?), grabbed 8 rebounds and handed out 7 assists.

Despite their reputation as being "suckers' bets", I began to realize that for anyone who's extremely well-informed on NBA statistics and trends associated with teams and players, the daily prop lines are viewed in an entirely different light, analyzed in a manner similar to the way a stock trader might assess shares of a given company relative to alternatives in the market, with some situations represent genuine value and a positive risk-reward scenario (I refer to these as "actionable situations"), while the majority offer no advantage and ought to be avoided. To this point, just as traders and investors in the financial markets are constantly warned against playing "if only...", when looking at the results of bypassed wagers, it is extremely important to assess and analyze results in order to learn as much as possible, while avoiding the temptation to play the result and lament what could have been.

As I mentioned, I was no stranger to prop bets, but had never thought about them as a viable means of consistently betting a sport, but beginning April 18, 2009, and for the remainder of the 2009 NBA postseason, I scaled back my action on game lines and traditional over/unders, and began looking very carefully at each day's individual player prop bets. Over the two months of the postseason, I studied the lines for each day's prop wagers, looking for situations that met certain criteria (see below) for "investment". Between the start of the playoffs and the Lakers' celebration in Orlando in June, I placed just under 50 individual player prop wagers (some were lost due to archiving issues, but you can see the last 38 here), with a success rate in excess of 60% which, as anyone familiar with gaming of any kind will tell you, is absurdly successful. This episode last spring got me thinking- wait a minute! I can pick and choose what part(s) of the game will matter to me. Sometimes you don't want fries with that! I can bet the NBA a la carte! Though this is a small sample, and the maintenance of this kind of success rate is highly unlikely in the long run, particularly with 30 teams (rather than a max of 16 in the postseason) to watch, many of whom are less talented and more inconsistent, I've come to really believe that with a measured and disciplined approach, it is possible to win more often than you lose with prop bets. Whether or not I am right is obviously still to b determined, but I feel like there may be something here...

** NOTE: I knew that an overwhelming majority of my wagers had been "overs", but had not realized that EVERY ONE, win or loss, was an "over". To start this season, I will simplistically be looking for situations in which the OPPOSITE of multiple (at least 2, but the more the better) criteria listed below are present **

The following criteria, referenced above, is instrumental in the selection of a "target player", as well as a prop line. The conditions below tend to be the driving force behind the identification of my "actionable situations":

1) Will your player be on the floor? MAKE SURE HE WILL BE ON THE FLOOR. This, more than any other factor, is the most vital in selection, and can be broken into five parts: First, is the player for whom you're considering an "over" bet ACTUALLY GOOD (This is sometimes black and white, but has a significant, somewhat subjective gray area)? Does he have the confidence of his coach and teammates ("young veterans" tends to work well here)? Does he consistently play big minutes in situations that are suited to his game and to the specific wager under consideration? Second, is he chronically prone to foul trouble? We'll call this the Greg Oden Principle. Now, I am decidedly pro-Oden, and have been suckered in to chasing his "over" lines, which seem artificially low and like "easy money", often times in the ~11.5 range for "points + rebounds", only to kiss my cash goodbye five minutes into the game, following foul #3 for Oden. Third, how big a threat is he to be tossed from the game? We can call this the Rasheed Wallace Corollary to the Greg Oden Principle. As much as it sucks to see Oden making a mid-first quarter trip to the pine, knowing that he won't be back until after halftime, seeing your guy fly off the handle and launch into a full-scale meltdown, earn himself a pair of T's and an escort to the locker room is enough to leave you catatonic (for a couple of minutes- any longer, and maybe you shouldn't be betting so heavily!). Unless you're getting really good value, try to lay off the loose cannons. Fourth, how often does the player in question suffer in-game injuries? Now, we're NOT talking about players that are seemingly always out for 2-4 weeks. I'm talking about guys that regularly get hurt during games, often resulting in the "injury timeout" and the dreaded need to be "helped off the floor" (we'll call this the Vince Carter Special). And finally, how often can the player be accused of "mailing in" games? Wow! Holy "VC's Greatest Hits, Batman! This one's pretty big! Lots of players and, in many cases, teams simply do not show up to play every night. To be fair, virtually every team and player in the Association has "off nights" and "letdown games", and the length of the regular season schedule makes it more difficult to identify trends, given the aforementioned larger pool of teams (with many more bad, inconsistent teams) from which to choose, and the full slate of 82 regular season games (rather than ~20 in a decent postseason run), in which even great teams will have the occasional dud (think about a strong Western team capping an 8-game trip in Milwaukee in early-March). With that said, there are certain teams (the Spurs are the best example) and players (Kobe, LeBron, Wade and Chris Paul head this list) that show up every, single night and will never coast through a game. The absence of this trait occasionally shows up in statistics (wild inconsistency is a red flag here, especially as it relates to "hustle stats", like rebounds), but there's also an element of art combined with the science. There is no substitute for watching as many games as possible to extract as much information as possible about the attitude and psyche of certain players. For instance, how hard does a guy play down by 10 in the 3rd quarter of a meaningless road game? These are the times when some players' effort wanes. Identifying the players whose effort doesn't dwindle with adversity (and those whose effort does), particularly those who seem to actually thrive on these situations (or, conversely, those who come apart at the seams), is a valuable tool in identifying strong, actionable situations.

2) Is this wager "mispriced"? So you've identified the type of player you'd like to back (or oppose). The next things to consider are the two aspects of your prospective wager- the "target figure" and the payout rate. This applies to both the actual number as well as the money line. value in the money line.

3) Are the matchups in your favor? This is fairly obvious, but can be very helpful in determining whether a given wager represents good value or a sucker's bet, but you've gotta get smart on the teams and playing styles. In the case of scoring props, the obvious focus here will be on the defensive matchup your "target player" will be facing, but you should also expand your focus to also include: strength of the opposing team's defense, "your" player's own defensive assignment (How much energy will he be expending on D? How likely is he to get into foul trouble?), and issues pertaining to playing style, both in terms of the actual style of play, as well as the likelihood of either team to control the tempo/pace/style of the game. If you're able to identify a talented guy who promises to get plenty of minutes and will be guarding an offensive "non-factor" in a game that will played in "his style", you are probably looking at an actionable situation. Additionally, and obviously, it helps to be highly aware of any injury situations, though in this case I am not referring to the target player himself, but injuries on the player's own team (Injuries to a point guard will affect scorers; conversely, injuries to scorers will adversely impact point guards; also, injuries to big men will impact the team's other big men, and in the case of a shot-blocker, could impact a defender's propensity to gamble on the perimeter) as well as on the opposing team (Is there a lock-down defender or shot-blocker that is banged up or not on the floor?). If you are considering backing someone to grab a certain number of rebounds, it helps if a high percentage shooter is out of action, in favor of a less efficient shooter.

4) Is there a trend in your favor? When considering this, it's important to consider trends unfolding not only on the floor, but with the numbers in the sportsbook as well. Obviously, if a guy is in the midst of a crazy hot (or cold) streak, assuming he's not facing some sort of nightmare matchup, it's generally not a bad idea to try and ride out the trend. Also, pay close attention to whether a player gets promoted or is given a more prominent role in his team's gameplan as a result of a run of great play (conversely, a guy may be demoted or lose minutes and/or touches as a result of a cold streak), as this will likely play out shortly before it is actually reflected in the lines. Also, before laying down any money, be sure to look at the performances of any teammates that play a similar position, as you do not want to ignorantly be on the wrong side of someone earning more minutes/touches at the expense of a teammate. It should be noted, however, that, like any "open market" figure, a persistent trend will definitely have an impact on a player's lines, with an extended run of great play "inflating" a player's numbers and diminishing value, while a legitimately good player enduring a slump (not an injury or irreparable decline, but just an honest-to-goodness slump) could see his lines adjust downward to the point of creating great value.

** NOTE: Rebounding and passing slump far less frequently than shooting does. This applies more to rebounds that it does to assists, since a guy is still relying on other to make shots in order to rack up assists. With regard to rebounding, most games will present no shortage of opportunities to grab some boards, and as much as I hate this exact cliche, "hustle never slumps". As long a guy is relatively healthy, motivated and not facing a nightmare matchup, rebounding props should generally be in play. Turning back to assists, to apply a similar cliche, "selflessness never slumps", and provided a primary ballhander (Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, LeBron, etc) is on the floor for a majority of the game, guys are eventually going to hit some shots, and keep you in the game with assists as well. Please note that this is not an implicit statement that these props will win, but in the event that a good offensive player is having a rough offensive stretch, in the right scenario you should definitely continue to be in the running on your "over" wagers focused on rebounds and assists.

Please note that the criteria below, as well as the opinions expressed on this website going forward reflect the opinions and experiences of the author and should not be interpreted as financial advice or as an advertised "betting system".