Kaman Makes Two, D-Wade, How 'Bout Three?

* Dwyane Wade OVER 9.5 rebounds + assists (-115) v. Cavaliers-


* LeBron James OVER 14.5 rebounds + assists (+105) @ Heat

* Mo Williams UNDER 2.5 made 3-pointers (-130) @ Heat

* Dwyane Wade OVER 9.5 made free throws (+100) v. Cavaliers-

* Jermaine O'Neal OVER 17.5 points + rebounds (-115) v. Cavaliers-

* Steve Nash UNDER 12 assists (-115) @ Lakers-

* Amare Stoudemire UNDER 29.5 points + rebounds @ Lakers

* Kobe Bryant UNDER 8.5 made free throws (-115) v. Suns-

* Ron Artest OVER 10.5 rebounds + assists (-115) v. Suns-

Packed Schedule- 13 on 11/11

* Chris Kaman OVER 9.5 rebounds (-125) v. Hornets- When healthy (which he is now), he's one of the league's best pure centers (by my estimation, just ten remain, and only Dwight Howard and possibly Andrew Bynum are better), the newly-named Western Conference Player of the Week and a very good rebounder. It's hard to believe that he's only gotten double-digit rebounds twice this year, but given how well he's playing, that number's a great bet to rise to three against the uninspiring Hornets, who really don't have anyone on the roster that can match Kaman physically. If the line doesn't rise to 10, the money line, -125 now, could move to the -140/-150 range.

* Dwight Howard OVER 29.5 points + rebounds (-115) v. Cavaliers- Really a fan of this prop. Orlando's biggest game thus far, as LeBron returns to the scene of last season's disappointing end, accompanied by Orlando's one-time-face of-the-franchise big man. Shaq hasn't exactly been complimentary to Orlando's current incarnation of Superman, but doesn't have nearly the physical tools left to back up his talk when matched up with Howard. Barring foul trouble (the risk of which kept this from being a lock), it's totally reasonable to expect something along the lines of 22-14 from him.

* LeBron James OVER 28.5 points (-120) @ Magic- This is an average to below-average scoring night for LBJ, and likely will be for the better part of the next decade. If you have to bet on this, 30+ is the likelier scenario, but keep a couple of potential risks in mine: first, Shaq clogs up a lot of the middle of the floor, where LeBron operates best; second, more than any other defender in the league, Dwight Howard is on LeBron's mind whenever he's on the floor, which sometimes turns LBJ into a jumpshooter; third, if he's at his all-around best, LeBron could throw up a brilliant 27-12-12, great for the Cavs, bad for the over. Not a huge risk, but I'm just saying...

* Stephen Curry UNDER 9.5 points (-105) @ Pacers- Physically overmatched and as big a defensive liability as there is in the NBA, and not making up for it on offense. His scoring (single digits in the last 4 games), shooting percentage (7-for-23 in the last 3 games) and, consequently, his minutes (75 in the first 2 games, 31 or fewer in every games since) are steadily declining. Until there is any indication that 1) Stephen Curry is a consistent double-digit NBA scorer and 2) he can defend well enough to ensure time on the floor, there's no reason to even consider the over on any of his lines.

* Danny Granger- OVER 2.5 made 3-pointers (-120) v. Warriors- He's averaging a staggering 10.2 3-point ATTEMPTS (51 in 5 games), and he's not even shooting them well (29.4%). He's obviously not easily discouraged. Imagine what'll happen when he actually makes a couple in a row! That, combined with a track meet against the Warriors, has me expecting at least a dozen attempts from Granger, three of which are bound to go in, even at his current 29% clip.

* Carlos Boozer UNDER 11.5 rebounds (-115) @ Celtics- He's been hitting the boards really well as of late (45 in his last three games), but it helps to keep in mind that the last two came against the Kings and the Knicks. Facing the Celtics, who have KG, Rasheed Wallace, Kendrick Perkins and Paul Pierce healthy and averaging a combined 23+ rebounds per game, and have only allowed 12 rebounds twice this season (Gerald Wallace, mostly in garbage time, and Josh Boone). With Boston's defensive intensity and length in frontcourt, this will almost certainly be Boozer's toughest game thus far. Don't see him extending his strong run.

* Raymond Felton UNDER 21.5 points + assists (-115) @ Pistons- Not to be an ass about it, but how dumb does Vegas think we are? Where did this number come from? It's too high, plain and simple. Sure, he's topped this number in each of his last two, but Felton's combined season averages are sub-18 (12.4 ppg, 5.4 apg) and, simply put, he's just not a good enough player to hit this figure on a nightly basis (yeah, I'm fighting a trend, but this one deserves to be fought). Additionally, Felton doesn't have a favorable matchup against which to top his regular season average by 20%, facing off against the much stronger Pistons' PGs Rodney Stuckey and Will Bynum.

* Brandon Roy UNDER 21.5 points (-105) @ Timberwolves-

* Al Jefferson OVER 4.5 1st quarter points (-105) v. Trailblazers- Big Al hasn't hit his stride yet, but he's really starting to look comfortable in the post again, and should have every opportunity to get off to a strong start against the Blazers and foul-prone Greg Oden. At 1-7 and having dropped six in a row, the Wolves REALLY need a win, and they should be looking to ride their best (by far) player to get it. Jefferson's low post footwork (second best in the game, behind Duncan), his collection of fakes and post moves and Oden proclivity for biting on pump-fakes should give him every opportunity put up 5 in the first.

* Richard Jefferson UNDER 5.5 1st quarter points (-125) v. Mavericks-

* Amare Stoudemire UNDER 21.5 points (-115) v. Hornets- I fought this trend when the Suns visited Philly- not again! Amare is absolutely not the same player as he has been in years past, and he's slipped on Nash's list of favorite targets, falling to third on the Suns' list of option on offense. Amare's scored 22+ in just two of eight games this season, and until he regains his form and shows that he's a legitimate 20-point scorer again, there's not much sense in backing the over on any of scoring-related props.

* Chris Paul over 10.5 assists (-135) @ Suns- This one's not overly complicated. 10.5 isn't an outlandish line for Chris Paul in an ordinary game, so you gotta love his assist prospects any time he gets to play a SSOL game against Nash & Co. Coming off a strong, blowout win over the Clippers in L.A., and considering the Suns' disdain for defense, CP3's disappointing Hornets could be starting to put together a decent run.


And the remainder of tonight's prop lines:

* Derrick Rose UNDER 26.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115)

* Hedo Turkoglu UNDER 16.5 points (-105) v. Bulls

* Joe Johnson OVER 1.5 made 3-pointers (-105) @ Knicks

* Al Harrington UNDER 20.5 points (-115) v. Hawks

* Andre Iguodala OVER 19.5 points (-105) @ Nets

* Paul Pierce UNDER 1.5 made 3-pointers (-125) v. Jazz

* Ben Gordon UNDER 5.5 1st quarter points (+120) v. Bobcats

* Carmelo Anthony UNDER 9.5 made free throws (-125) @ Bucks

* Brandon Jennings UNDER 1.5 made 3-pointers (+120) v. Nuggets

* OJ Mayo OVER 4.5 1st quarter points (-115) @ Rockets

* Aaron Brooks UNDER 2.5 made 3-pointers (-105) v. Grizzlies

* Jason Kidd UNDER 22.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115) @ Spurs

* Kevin Durant UNDER 37.5 points + rebounds + assists (-105) @ Clippers

The Key? Too Many Locks

Though NBA Props is still in its infancy an has yet to really begin its development, this site is already one of the most enjoyable ventures I have launched to date. In fact, it's quickly becoming apparent to me that NBA Props will become a real labor of love. I never make any misrepresentations about my love of wagering on sports, and prop bets on individual NBA players in particular. Even in these early days, this site has had an effect on not only the way that I wager on the NBA, but on the way I watch the games as well. The reason for this is that, in putting together my thoughts on each posted prop, I put a great deal of pressure on myself to express my ideas in a concise and logical manner, effectively creating the opportunity to "audit" the rationale behind my opinions, hopefully avoiding many of the pitfalls that claim the bankrolls of others who choose this endeavor. This is my stated goal with this website, though I must admit that my discipline has has not been iron-clad in these early days. Thus, I think it's important to get back to basics and reestablish the daily goal for this site. It's time for an honest reassessment of my approach.

Every day on NBA Props, I briefly review developments from the NBA, revisit propositions from the previous day, examine upcoming matchups and lay out the individual player props offered for the evening to come, accompanied with some brief thoughts from me on each. In laying out and discussing the prop lines, I look at not only the target number itself but the "price", or money line of each, and based on criteria laid out in my "manifesto", I formulate an opinion on each line, and make picks (over or under) on all props, and provide an explanation for the thinking behind each, all the while looking to identify all actionable situations, and selecting one (maybe two) in particular that represents the most compelling risk-reward proposition(s). However, in the past week I've taken to declaring three locks each night. Three! You can have great runs picking lines, you can be confident about a handful of lines, and maybe it's my zeal for the start of the NBA season and my love of action, but declaring 3 "locks" a night dilutes the quality of my work and creates the potential pitfall of putting (fake) money to work on all of them. So, beginning with tonight's games, I reinstitute some discipline to NBA Props. One lock per night. Like as many as you want, but just one lock.

Now, back to business. Looking back on last night, the overall results were subpar but not catastrophic, as I was on the mark with three of seven picks (there were originally eight lines, but Tim Duncan's sat out, thus voiding his). Of course, this is just a self-serving way of stating that I missed on four of seven, with the two most dramatic losses both coming at the Garden, where Deron Williams made a mockery of his O/U 12 line for assists, dishing out 16 dimes, while the Knicks' double-double machine (or so I'd hoped), David Lee, never stood the slightest chance of 30 combined points & rebounds, seeing the floor for just 30 minutes in close game where he was 1) not in foul trouble (3), 2) not shooting poorly (5-10 FG) and the Knicks could have used all the help they could get on the glass (outrebounded 53-40). Is a woeful team without a draft pick (ironically, Utah has the Knicks' #1 in the 2010 draft) actually tanking seven games into the season? No wonder D'Antoni's never won anything!


* Kevin Durant OVER 4.5 free throws made (+100) @ Kings- One door, one key, here's the lock! KD is shooting 84.4% from the line, attempts 7.5/game and has yet to make less than 4 from the stripe this season. The Kings allow 25 FTs per game, a number that could prove very conservative considering the fact that they have no one with anyhting close to the length,, height and quickness to trouble Durant. Also, as this is a very winnable game for OKC, some late-game fouling is a very real possibility, and Durant is the man the Thunder will be trying to get it to late. I give this a better than 50% chance of going over by the half.

* Gerald Wallace OVER 12.5 points (-125) v. Magic- I swear, it's like Vegas heard me. Ever since I declared Bobcats' scoring-related overs a no-no, we've seen two that, in terms of number and price, seem too good to pass up (Vegas overshooting on the downside?), Raymond Felton over 11.5 (-110) on 11/7 (he scored 14), and now this one, slightly tipping (-120) Gerald Wallace to hit for at least 13 at home against Orlando.He's is averaging 14.3 ppg and is a regular 18+ point guy on a team that needs all the offense it can get. Also, he's averaging an impressive 7.2 FT attempts per game (making 76%) and has scored just 11 and 12 in his last two, which averages out to just a point under this line, while shooting just 29.6% (8-for-27) from the field. At first blush, this looks like a gimme, and I'm tentatively backing the over here, but it should be noted that he's scored 13+ just twice in six games this year (v. the Knicks & Nets) and had a very time against the Magic last season, averaging 10.3 ppg, 4.5 FTA and shooting just 41.8% from the field. Things could get a bit dicey for him tonight against Mickael Pietrus, with Dwight Howard waiting in the lane, but Wallace is a damn good player who'll get the minutes and attempts to put up 13.

* Gilbert Arenas OVER 5.5 1st quarter points (-115) @ Heat- I like O/U 5.5 so much more than the 6.5 figure we've been seeing. Simply put, three buckets should be good enough to clinch a first quarter over. Applied to a top-flight scorer who gets to the line a lot, like Government Assistance (Is it working? It's gotta be!) and you're looking at a potentially actionable situation. Expect at least four field goal attempts and one trip to the line in the first 12 minutes. Plus, eight days before the Cavs' visit to DC, there may some extra motivation to stick it to Shaq's old team (this is unsubstantiated; if you want to know what I'm talking about, Google it)

* Dwyane Wade OVER 28.5 points (-130) v. Wizards- It's feels weird to say, but the over on Dwyane Wade props have been a money pit thus far! Though six games, D-Wade has scored 29+ just twice, both on the road, though his high of 40 came was against these Wizards (Note: Washington has surrendered some big games to guards- 22 to Jason Richardson on 11/8, 27, on 16 FGA to LeBron, and 25 and 20 to Chris Douglas-Roberts and Raefer Alston on Halloween). Miami's trip to DC was also, incidentally, the only time in his last five games that Wade hit more than 50% of his shots. Despite Wade's "slow" start and recent poor shooting, this over is very attractive, with the opportunity to back a top-5 superstar who's guaranteed minutes (38.2/gm), is getting to the line (12 FTA/gm!), is facing a weak defensive opponent whom he's already lit up this season, and is still averaging 28 ppg despite being "overdue" for a huge game at home.

* Chauncey Billups UNDER 1.5 3-pointers made- After a hot start, in which he made multiple 3's in four of five games (and 3+ three times), Mr. Big Shot has cooled off, making just three of his last thirteen, and one of eight, from beyond the arc. Going on the road in the midst of a mini-(for now) slump, with J.R. Smith returning (less 3's to go around) and a -180 price on the over, there's not too much to get excited about here, unless you're enticed by the +140 price on the under (you really could do worse!)

* Joakim Noah UNDER 11.5 rebounds (-115) v. Nuggets- Sure he's coming off a 21-16 against the Bobcats and has been playing very well to start the season, but just how much money are you willing to risk on Joakim Noah grabbing 12 rebounds? In six games he's grabbed 12+ boards twice, both against relatively weak interior teams, the aforementioned 16 against the Bobcats and 12 v. the Bucks on 11/3. Tonight will probably be a different story with the Nuggets in town- Kenyon Martin, Nene Chris Andersen and Carmelo Anthony all hit the glass very hard, and foul trouble to be a problem against Melo, J.R. Smith (making his season debut) and the three bigs.

* Brandon Roy UNDER 28.5 points + assists (-115) @ Grizzlies- This number's a bit high under normal circumstances, but given the uninspiring way the Blazers, and Roy in particular, have started the season, a show-me approach is the most responsible one here. Roy has only hit this number twice in seven games, both times scoring sufficiently to cover the entire figure, but has failed to do so since Game 3, on Halloween at Houston. For a career 22-5 guy who's just shy of those numbers this season, this over doesn't represent much of a risk-reward play, especially at less than even-money.

* Rudy Gay OVER 5.5 1st quarter points (-115) v. Trailblazers- With AI gone, the most selfish collection of players in the league has one less guy demanding the ball. Of the remaining crew, Rudy Gay has no one looking over his shoulder from the bench, is the team's top scorer (22.3 ppg) and has consistently been getting off to strong starts (5.9 pts/1st quarter; 6+ in five of seven games). Not quite sure how Travis Outlaw or Martell Webster will check him. Also, look for Greg Oden to gift him at least one early trip to the line.

* Trevor Ariza UNDER 1.5 3-pointers made (+260) @ Mavericks- He's averaging 20 a night, is hitting 46% of his 3's and has yet to make less than two 3's in a game. The trend is absolutely there for Ariza, who's playing some fantastic ball, but for the price of this over (-300, yikes!), the fact that he's overdue for a off night and tipping off in Dallas, where the Mavs are doing a solid job defending the 3 (35% opponent 3-pt%; 6.2 made 3's allowed per game, 5.3 allowed per home game). Not crazy about fighting this trend, and not sure anyone should get involved with this line, but from a risk-reward scenario, the under is a much more compelling proposition.

* Shawn Marion UNDER 24.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115) v. Rockets- Vintage "Matrix" would have little trouble with this number, and while number "0" for the Mavs looks a lot like that guy, those days were quite a while ago. Marion's hit a combined 25 three times in six games, but they've all been very close calls, and assists have been at a premium (0.7 apg and three games with 0 assists), effectively making this a "points + rebounds" play. Don't see Shawn Marion as a consistent 17-18/7-8 guy any more.

* Tyreke Evans UNDER 5.5 1st quarter points (+100) v. Thunder- Not long ago, I declared that without another perimeter scorer Brandon Jennings will have to do a 1996 A.I. impression. Well, he's not alone! Gotta make some room on that bandwagon for red-hot Tyreke Evans. As long as Kevin Martin is out of the lineup, he's is a virtual lock to average 20 a night. However, now that Evans is on everyone's radar, and against a pair of strong perimeter defenders like Russell Westbrook and Thabo Sefolosha, not sure how easily he'll get to six in the first 12 minutes.

Differentiating Between Knee-jerks and Real Trends

* Amare Stoudemire OVER 20.5 points (-115) @ 76ers- Despite playing really well (20-10, 57% FG), Amare hasn't really had a statistical breakout game (think 32 & 15). Now back on good team in the SSOL system with Nash and playing for a max deal, Amare is poised to rip off one of his 3-week, 28-14 runs, and Philly is a good candidate to jumpstart him. In the Sixers' last two games Brook Lopez (22-11) and the Pistons frontcourt (16 on 7-for-12 for Charlie V., 16 boards for Big Ben and seven for Kwame Brown- on just FIVE shots!) have put up very impressive performances. Needing only 21 points for the over, at a reasonable -115 price, Amare is a solid prospect to make the over here.

* Chris Bosh OVER 24.5 points (-120) @ Spurs- Ok, kinda scared, but I'm finally buying in. I've been sucked in by Chris Bosh before, only to get burned, but if I'm going to get all riled up about Carmelo Anthony's possible leap into the top tier, it's it's only fair that I acknowledge CB4's dominant start (28.5-10.8 through 6 games). Rather greeting every strong performance with cynicism, I'm electing to point out that Bosh has hit the over on this number in five of his six games (the other was 21-16 in a win v. the Cavs), he's doing it against good teams (35 v. Orlando, 26 @ Dallas) and on the road (37 @ Memphis, 27 at NOH & Dallas). San Antonio's got the bodies to throw at him (Duncan, McDyess, Blair), but the Spurs have lost two straight (allowed 104.5 per game), giving up 27-14 to an ice-cold Carlos Boozer on Thursday night. The hot streak could run out tonight, but the over is a nicely-priced favorite (-120), with Bosh playing as well as any frontcourt player in the league.

* David Lee OVER 29.5 points + rebounds (+100) v. Jazz- A last second addition to the "locks". He's quietly hit 30+ pts/reb in four of seven, is averaging 19-10 and is scoring very well (17+ in six of seven). Tonight is a great opportunity to put up numbers with the Jazz coming to MSG. Utah is still brutal on the road and has stumbled out of the gate and is playing very un-Sloan-like ball, allowing 104 points and 41 rebounds (11 offensive boards) per game, and allowing huge games to frontcourt guys (16-11 to Kenyon Martin; 21 points to Chris Kaman, 13 boards to Camby; 14-15 to Luis Scola; 40-11 to Dirk- even excluding a 15-13 to Duncan). At an even-money payout, Lee's over looks pretty good.

* Andre Iguodala UNDER 4.5 made free throws (+110) v. Suns- Not getting to the line like he has in the past (5.8 attempts per game; 7.3, 6.2 & 6.4 last 3 yrs), not shooting particularly well when he does get there (75.4% career shooter; 68.6% this year, 10-for-19 in his last three games), and with Phoenix (not a physical team) allowing 23 attempts per game, he'd have to earn three trips to the line- AND make five of six attempts. Not seeing it.

* Deron Williams UNDER 12 assists (-115) @ Knicks- DWill is as good as any PG in the Association, with the possible exception of Nash and CP3 (but that gap is closing!), and is coming off a 15-assist game Saturday against the Kings. However, as well as he's playing right now, DWill is averaging under 10 and has hit 12+ assists just twice in six games- and 12 assists (especially without the aid of a hometown scorekeeper) is a very high number. Throw in the fact that this big a number is priced as a toss-up (-115), and there's not a lot of value here.

* Tim Duncan OVER 10.5 rebounds (-130) v. Raptors- Duncan is still Duncan. He's grabbed double-digit rebounds four times in five games (11+ three times), enters tonight's game (without Tony Parker) on two days' rest, against a perimeter-oriented front line (Bosh, Andrea Bargnani, Hedo Turkoglu). Barring a minutes-limiting blowout, 12-13 boards for Duncan looks like a safe bet.

* Stephen Jackson UNDER 1.5 3-pointers made (+120) v. Timberwolves- He's the best and most consistent of the Warriors, has made multiple 3's in four straight and five of six, and is ordinarily a pretty decent shooter. However, (Ex) Captain Jack has made just four-of-thirteen over the past two games, and has been publicly very unhappy, a fact that didn't matter until his agent chimed in on Don Nelson. Given Nellie's ability lose friends and alienate people, I wouldn't look for Jackson to get too many minutes tonight. Throw in a +120 payout on the under, and we may have an actionable situation tonight.

* Chris Paul OVER 6.5 1st quarter points (+100) @ Clippers- I've inadvertently wound up watching most of the Hornets action early this season, and if my own frustration on behalf of Chris Paul is any indication, the man himself must be ready to strangle someone. On a shaken-up roster without any chemistry, playing for a lame-duck coach that's losing (lost?) the locker room and off to a 2-5, and as one of the best young players in NBA history, CP can't be far from putting this underachieving lot on his back and keep them respectable (for as long he's healthy). As ugly as things are for the Hornets right now, Chris Paul will not mail in any games.

Cowboys-Eagles Counterprogramming Anyone?

* Kobe Bryant OVER 45.5 points + rebounds + assists (-150) v. Hornets- No Pau, no Bynum and matchup against Devin Brown? Can you think of a single reason why he won't drop 40 again? Me either. 50 is in play tonight.

* Dwight Howard UNDER 24.5 points (-115) @ Thunder- Whether or not he hits 25 points, this number is simply too high given Howard's lack of consistency and still-raw offensive game. He's just not a legit 25-a-night guy, and while OKC doesn't have anyone to battle Dwight 1-on-1, but they're long and athletic and can disrupt him inside.

* Stephen Curry UNDER 20.5 points + rebounds + assists (-130) @ Kings- Haven't addressed Curry yet this season. Great college stats and an NBA pedigree (in case you didn't know, his dad is long-time SG Dell Curry), and the fact that, by all accounts, he's fantastic human being have combined to generate a fair amount of hype around Stephen, and the consensus that he's destined for NBA stardom. There is no way! I don't care how "great a young man" he is, an undersized, not-particularly-athletic 2-guard whose reputation was built against inferior college competition? No thanks! Maybe a great guy, but he's going to be an NBA bust.

* Jason Thompson OVER 9.5 rebounds (-125) v. Warriors- Still lacks a refined offensive game, but any time he can stay out of foul trouble, Thompson is a good bet to grab double-digit rebounds. Put up 12-11 in Saturday's upset at Utah, and should be able to put up some nice rebounding numbers at home against Golden State. Unlike most big guys, he's athletic and well-conditioned enough to not be liability against the Warriors, whose style of play creates tons of rebounding chances.

* Jonny Flynn OVER .5 3-pointers made (-185) @ Trailblazers- This line is a bit pricey at -185, but he's connected from long range in four of six games (he had zero attempts in one of the other two), and is shooting 43% from 3-point range and is quickly developing into Minny's first option on the perimeter. In Portland, neither Blake nor Andre Miller will keep him from getting at least two or three clean looks from distance.

* David West OVER 18.5 points (-115) @ Lakers- Other than Chris Paul, the play of the rest of Hornets has been a depressing combination of unimpressive and uninspiring, but someone else has to occasionally score for them, right? Plus, Paul and West are extremely familiar with one another, West has scored 20+ in two of his last three games, and the Lakers are shorthanded in the frontcourt. Plus, assuming he plays at least 32 minutes, a line of 18.5 for David West is more than reasonable.

Early Sunday- 2 Games, Easy on the Props

Two early games (1:00pm Eastern) taking place this Sunday, with the Suns taking on the Wizards in DC, and the Sixers in Detroit to face the Pistons. I'm actualy pretty interested to watch as much as I can of both these games- Suns-Wizards should be an absolute shootout and loads of fun to watch, especially with Nash and Government Assistance (can we make this nickname catch on?) running the point.

The other early matchup promises less excitement, but Sixers-Pistons is interesting for a couple of reason: first, the Sixers may be better than expected, and I am convinced that Philly is not nearly as good as some may have thought. I'm looking for Detroit to defend its home court. Also, each of these teams features a handful of gifted players looking to develop a rapport with and grow into a strong unit, but they a definitely not without questions:

* Is Andre Iguodala or Lou Williams the Sixers' leader? How good can you really be with either guy as your best player?

* Will Elton Brand ever be a top-flight player again? Should the Sixers be starting Marreese Speights in his place?

* How much do the Pistons miss Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince? Are they better off starting Ben Gordon at the 2? Note: I think Ben Gordon might be better than I ever gave him credit for.

* Is Charlie Villanueva a) mildly overpaid, b) properly overpaid or c) grossly overpaid?


I have seen a couple of unconvincing Sixers games thus far, but have yet to see the Pistons play this season, but have been intrigued by the numbers I've seen in their box scores. I not sure if I'll watch every minute of this game, but I have enough interest in these storylines to tune in.

Now let's turn our attention to the prop bet front. Sadly, with regard to these 1pm games, BetUS failed us, not having a single player prop line posted as of 10 minutes before tip-off. PlayersOnly, however, did give us one option on each of the four teams in action. While none of the lines below struck as particularly enticing, they all speak to situations with these players and teams that are worth monitoring:

* Andre Iguodala OVER 4.5 1st quarter points (-105) @ Pistons- Handles the ball a lot on the wings and in isolation sets, and will be matched up all day against either Ben Gordon or Jonas Jerebko. Should get to the bucket (and the line as well) early and often.

* Ben Gordon OVER 1.5 3-pointers made (-115) v. 76ers-

* Steve Nash UNDER 29.5 points + assists (-115) @ Wizards- With the Suns' style of play, this number is never out of play, but a combined 30 will be tough to hit. 17 and 12 assists is an excellent game for Nash, and that would not be enough. Expect this to be close, but not a fan of the over.

* Gilbert Arenas UNDER 6.5 3-point attempts (-105) v. Suns- Government Assistance (I'm gonna make this happen! It works with his initials and everything!) is still a devastating offensive player, and not shy about taking 3's, but he's looking more committed to getting into the lane and earning trips to the line that jacking up the long ball. Against the Suns, I would be easy to see him falling into shootout mode, but seven threes (that's almost Danny Granger pace) is a bit much. He may get to 5, even 6, but I'm not anticipating Him going beyond that.

Looking ahead to the evening, we have four additional games on the NBA schedule, highlighted by a Kobe-CP3 matchup in L.A. at 9:30 Eastern. I will be back with my thought on those prop lines (c'mon BetUS, work with me!), as well with 1, maybe two highlighted actionable situations.

Until this evening, enjoy the early NBA games! Enjoy the NFL!

Enticing Options, But Just One Lock

* Brook Lopez OVER 12.5 points (-125) v. Celtics-


* Tyreke Evans OVER 11 points (-115) @ Jazz- With Kevin Martin's injury woes, first a minor ankle injury and now a hairline fracture of his wrist that could keep him out of the lineup more than six weeks, backcourt minutes and offensive opportunities are going to be abundantly available for the #4 overall pick. Evans is a great athlete and looks like he's NBA-ready. At just 11 points, this one is a (VERY) near-lock, but I want to see him do it at least once. By next week, Tyreke Evans name could regularly be in bold font.

* Luol Deng OVER 17 points (-115) v. Bobcats-

* Raymond Felton OVER 11.5 points (-110) @ Bulls- I remember what I said about the offensively challenged Bobs and my hesitation to back them on scoring props. I also realize that I made those statements just a day ago, but this line is just too attainable (probably an overreaction to the downside) and using the "well, someone has to score for them" theory, looks like a winner. Felton is still the starter, is getting some minutes (~33 per game) and is due for at least a breakout (ok, at least mediocre) game, after a pretty rough start to the season (11.4 ppg, 37% FG). Seriously, other than Gerald Wallace, is there anyone on this team you'd back more to score a dozen points? This is hardly a ringing endorsement, but somone's gotta do it!

* Zach Randolph UNDER 19.5 points (-110) @ Clippers-

* Andrew Bogut OVER 22.5 points + rebounds (-120) v. Knicks-

* Al Harrington UNDER 5.5 1st quarter points @ Bucks-

* Chris Bosh UNDER 10.5 rebounds (-115) @ Mavericks-

* Carmelo Anthony OVER 7.5 1st quarter points (+110) @ Hawks- His lines are starting to get bumped up a little too high. This one has the look of a likely under, and is actually a stayaway at best, but until he cools off for a couple of games, you will not see me picking against Carmelo Anthony. I definitely DO NOT see this as an actionable situation, but wouldn't rule out a 10-12-point opening period from Melo.

* Joe Johnson OVER 1.5 3-pointers made (-150) v. Nuggets-

* Jason Kidd UNDER 17.5 points + assists (-115) v. Raptors-

* Carlos Boozer OVER 10.5 rebounds (-200) v. Kings- Given his start to the season, I'm wanted to just ride the trend here, but it should be noted that as bad as Boozer's been start the season (15.6 ppg, 42% FG), his rebounding numbers have actually been pretty solid (10 rpg, 11+ in 4 of 5 games). Plus, it's interesting to see this aggressive a line (-200) for a guy who's not playing his best, but stealthily not stinking it up either. After his first great game of the season (27-14 in a win v. the Spurs), this could be a continuation of a statistical breakout for Boozer. 13-15 boards at home against Sacramento does not seem crazy at all.

Looking to KD, Lou and TP on a Jam-Packed Night

* Kevin Durant OVER 31.5 points + rebounds @ Rockets-

* Lou Williams OVER 25.5 points + rebounds + assists v. Nets-

* Tony Parker OVER 22.5 points + assists @ Trailblazers-



* Al Jefferson OVER 23.5 points + rebounds (-115) v. Bucks- Looks to be getting back into game shape and hitting his groove. Milwaukee’s thin front line will help.

* Brandon Jennings OVER 20.5 points (-105) @ Timberwolves- Has come out of the gates like A.I. in 1996, and with Michael Redd out of the lineup, he’s the Bucks’ main offensive option.

* Al Harrington UNDER 22.5 points (-115) v. Cavaliers-

* David Lee UNDER 10.5 rebounds (-105) v. Cavaliers-

* LeBron James OVER 7.5 assists (-130) @ Knicks- His only visit to MSG in the midst of New York’s Summer of 2010 pipe dream- LBJ really has a sense of the moment and is sure to put up a great performance.

* Shaquille O'Neal OVER 12.5 points (-120) @ Knicks

* Chris Kaman UNDER 10 rebounds (-120) @ Warriors- His game is not well-suited to the pace of the Warriors’ game. There will be plenty of rebounds to grab, but fatigue and fouls will limit Kaman’s effectiveness.

* Kobe Bryant OVER 36.5 points + assists (-115) v. Grizzlies- It’s hard to see Kobe scoring less than 30 in any game that does not involve Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. Against Memphis’ D, 40 is definitely in play.

* Zach Randolph OVER 19.5 points (-115) @ Lakers- For all the questions about the Grizzlies sharing the ball, Randolph’s role has never been in question. He’s also been really effective (20/10, 30 pts in two of his last four games)

* Gerald Wallace UNDER 16.5 points (-115) v. Hawks- This looks like the right number, but until the Bobs are less offensively-challenged, it’s hard to justify backing any of their “over” props.

* Brook Lopez OVER 22.5 points + rebounds (-115) @ 76ers- Under normal circumstances he’s good for 16 and 8, but with Devin Harris out and CDR under the weather, Lopez should have a big night in Philly.

* Dwyane Wade UNDER 10 rebounds + assists (-105) v. Nuggets

* Ben Gordon UNDER 27.5 points + assists (-120) @ Magic- This line basically assumes that he’ll score 25 or more points. In general, this is too high number for him, but on the road, against one of the NBA’s top teams whom the Piston upset last week, it starts to look especially unlikely.

* Dwight Howard OVER 12 rebounds (-155) v. Pistons- Fouls limited him to 5 rebounds in 17 minutes in Detroit’s November 3 win, and that’s unlikely to happen again. Against the likes of Ben Wallace, Kwame Brown and Charlie V, 12+ boards shouldn’t be too tall an order.

* Chris Bosh UNDER 26.5 points (-110) @ Hornets- Ahead of his massive Summer ’10 payday, Bosh is off to another great start (remember last season’s opening weeks?), and it’s starting to skew his lines upward. Bosh has never been a consistent 27-point scorer- this line seems ~3 points too high.

* Brandon Roy UNDER 34.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115) v. Spurs- The Blazers haven’t found their comfort zone yet this season, and Roy is a) trying to single-handedly make them contenders and b) still working to settle in with Andre Miller. This number is in play against lesser teams, but a combined 35 on the Spurs is unlikely.

* Greg Oden UNDER 9.5 rebounds (-115) v. Spurs- He’s developing and looks like a significantly better player than he did last year, but he has issues with fouls, and the Spurs have savvy bigs (Duncan, McDyess) that will exploit this. Another Oden prop to watch: O/U 30 minutes on the floor.

* Tim Duncan OVER 14.5 points (-115) @ Trailblazers- Thanks to a deeper roster, Duncan can comfortably take on a smaller offensive role, but this number seems a low. Not crazy (I have him right around 15-16 pts), but just a little bit low.

* Kevin Garnett OVER 21.5 points + rebounds (-115) v. Suns- Even recovering from his knee and in the declining stage of his career, KG’s due to produce a big game soon. A home game against the 4-1 Suns after a day of rest seems like a low-risk proposition. Plus, this line only assumes a 14-8- Garnett hasn't slipped that far.

* Steve Nash UNDER 19.5 points (-120) @ Celtics- Even with the return of SSOL, the Suns are better off when Nash is producing 17-16 stat lines, than when he’s hitting for 22-10. If the Suns play their game and win, he’ll probably be under 20, and if Boston’s D, which did a great job v. Chris Paul, is locked in, Nash will still have a tough time scoring 20.

* Trevor Ariza UNDER 17.5 points (-115) v. Thunder- Not saying that the back-to-back 25 and 33-point games were a total fluke, but it may be early to expect 18 per game from Ariza. This numbers definitely in play, but is not a great value.

* Roy Hibbert UNDER 10.5 rebounds (-130) v. Wizards- He’s definitely developing into a solid big man, but facing a deep Wizards front line (Haywood, Oberto, Blatche and McGee), along with risk of foul trouble with Arenas constantly getting into the paint, the doesn’t seem like a great matchup for Hibbert.

* Gilbert Arenas UNDER 6.5 1st quarter points (-115) @ Pacers- Agent Zero has definitely been in playmaker mode to start all the Wizards’ games, looking to get the other guys involved before calling his own number. There no reason to look for anything different against Indy.

* Carmelo Anthony OVER 6.5 1st quarter points (-120) @ Heat- Not only does Melo look like he’s focused on joining the top tier of NBA superstars, he’ll be trying to keep the Nuggets unbeaten against 2003 Draft classmate D-Wade and his surprising 1-loss Heat. Look for him to be aggressive early and to get off to a fast start.

* Chris Paul OVER 6.5 1st quarter points (+110) v. Raptors- A big win against the Mavs, an underperforming supporting cast, his own hot shooting (63%; 62-for-97) and a home matchup against a weak defensive team with no strong inside presence? CP3 will put his stamp on this on early.

* Monta Ellis UNDER 6.5 1st quarter points (-125) v. Clippers- Should be motivated to face off against former teammate Baron Davis, but the Clippers have some big defenders that will make inside scoring tough. Plus, do we even know where he and Nellie stand? By all accounts, he’s the Warriors’ star, but there’s so much tension there that is hard to get on board with Monta right now.

Unsuccessful, But Undeterred

Derrick Rose OVER 19.5 points + assists (-115) @ Cavaliers:


Tony Parker OVER 4.5 1st quarter points (-130) @ Jazz: Home or away, and regardless of opposition, Parker's always good for at least one trip to the line and one of his floaters in the paint in the first quarter, which means he just has to find singe point somewhere to hit this over. I have tons of confidence that he will- he's too good not to.

And the rest...

Joakim Noah UNDER 9.5 rebounds (-115) @ Cavaliers

LeBron James UNDER 8.5 free throws made (-115) v. Bulls

Shaquille O'Neal OVER 9.5 rebounds + blocks (-115) v. Bulls

Andrei Kirilenko UNDER 8.5 rebounds + assists (-130) v. Spurs

Tim Duncan UNDER 11.5 rebounds (-115) @ Jazz

Deron Williams OVER 1.5 3-pointers made (+115) v. Spurs

We're Goin Streaking!

My top three picks for the night:

Chris Paul OVER 9.5 assists (-130):

Michael Beasley OVER 13.5 points (even):

Corey Brewer UNDER 17.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125):


Those are my top picks, and here we have the rest:


Jose Calderon OVER 17.5 points + assists (-130)

Steve Nash UNDER 2.5 3-pointers made (-125)

Dwight Howard UNDER 20.5 points (+105)

Danny Granger OVER 6.5 1st quarter points (even)

David Lee UNDER 21.5 points (-105)

Ray Allen UNDER 2.5 3-pointer made (-200)

Kobe Bryant OVER 8.5 free throws made (-105)

Shane Battier OVER 9.5 points (-115)

Joe Johnson OVER 31.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125)

Kevin Martin UNDER 2.5 3-pointers made (+135)

Rudy Gay OVER 18.5 points (-130)

Monta Ellis UNDER 5.5 1st quarter points (+115)

Dwyane Wade UNDER 38.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115)

David West OVER 20.5 points (-115)

Shawn Marion UNDER 15.5 points (-105)